2020 Season Finale 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 8th, 3:00PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR will close the doors on the 2020 season on Sunday with the running of the Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway. Admittedly, this season has been the toughest and unluckiest of my professional career. Faced with limited sportsbook options, new racing weekend schedules without practices, consistent favorites winning on a near weekly basis, and the worst string of luck in recent memory, this season has been forgettable to say the least. All I can say from a handicapping perspective, is that we will win the long-term war. Let’s end this disastrous season on a strong note and shed some positive vibes towards 2021 as we present this Sunday’s Season Finale 500 race picks!

One of the most difficult challenges throughout the 2020 season revolves around the incapability of practice observations. For clarity, practices performance and speeds do not always shed light on the best race day car. However, practices can usually give you a strong indicator of the cars/teams to potentially avoid going into the weekend which helps eliminate unnecessary risks. For 2020, we have had to lean on track history which is not always reliable depending on the type of track layout. I’m expecting these conditions to improve in 2021 as NASCAR plans to return limited practices at select tracks while avoiding them at most of the similar 1.5 mile tracks and short tracks. We will have to adjust some handicapping angles and will use the off-season to re-calibrate.

For this Sunday’s finale at Phoenix, the best handicapping angle to consider is stylistic track trends. Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile tri-oval with relatively flat banking that peaks at just 11 degrees at the steepest section in turns 3-4. The Cup Series competed at Phoenix back in March which produced Joey Logano’s 2nd win of the season in the Fan Shield 500. However, we really cannot rely on the results in March to be replicated due to the vast time window since that race occurred. We know Penske Racing cars have been fast at the shorter layouts which helps build the case for Logano, Kesleowski, and Blaney. Still, we must look at the driver trends across similar venues like Richmond and New Hampshire to gain the best perspective on the drivers that excel at this style of racing and combine that with 2020 performance trends to gain our handicapping baseline.

Loop Data

*Data reflects the last 5 races at Phoenix (*only drivers with multiple starts)

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	131.5	5.6	2.0	1.8	3.6	70	192	246	491	1564
Kevin Harvick	116.4	5.6	5.4	4.4	5.8	43	170	155	178	1564
Denny Hamlin	106.0	5.0	12.4	8.6	9.4	15	122	137	182	1564
Martin Truex Jr	102.8	7.8	4.6	11.8	7.8	30	156	101	22	1530
Chase Elliott	102.2	2.8	10.4	17.2	11.2	6	155	142	109	1414
Brad Keselowski	96.6	13.6	13.6	11.4	10.8	37	141	98	129	1563
Joey Logano	92.0	8.2	13.6	15.2	12.6	48	151	53	153	1346
Aric Almirola	91.9	14.2	12.0	9.0	11.0	19	201	19	26	1562
Ryan Blaney	91.0	6.4	13.6	18.6	13.6	-23	109	46	97	1237
Kurt Busch	89.0	13.6	16.6	13.2	12.6	55	162	66	62	1524
Clint Bowyer	88.7	18.4	11.8	13.0	13.0	64	197	42	0	1385
Jimmie Johnson	80.5	19.0	11.0	12.6	13.6	-26	155	0	4	1564
William Byron	79.9	14.4	13.4	14.4	13.6	-32	138	17	15	1561
Ryan Newman	79.2	18.3	12.0	13.0	13.3	-9	122	20	23	1247
Erik Jones	75.7	9.2	19.0	18.0	15.8	2	143	12	11	1551
Alex Bowman	71.0	7.4	20.0	23.0	17.2	12	130	7	0	1414
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	64.7	18.8	21.6	22.0	19.8	2	70	4	0	1512
Austin Dillon	63.4	20.8	19.6	21.2	18.8	-80	74	15	0	1372
Matt DiBenedetto	63.3	21.4	19.4	20.0	19.8	-30	122	6	0	1557
Daniel Suarez	61.3	23.0	23.4	20.6	22.4	9	62	17	0	1347
Ty Dillon	57.5	26.0	22.2	19.8	22.2	-12	38	1	0	1558
Chris Buescher	55.1	22.2	23.6	19.2	23.4	-35	17	1	1	1558
John Hunter Nemechek	54.9	26.0	21.5	26.0	22.5	-6	7	0	0	623
Bubba Wallace	54.4	26.0	26.0	20.8	25.0	-29	22	3	0	1556
Ryan Preece	49.0	22.0	23.3	26.0	25.3	-18	7	0	0	852
Michael McDowell	46.0	24.8	28.4	26.0	27.4	-2	3	3	0	1398
J.J. Yeley	37.6	35.7	32.0	31.0	31.7	2	0	2	0	710
Garrett Smithley	30.4	35.5	35.0	33.0	34.5	1	0	1	0	485
Quin Houff	30.4	34.5	33.0	32.0	33.5	-1	0	0	0	510
Joey Gase	29.3	37.5	33.0	33.5	35.0	-2	0	2	0	483
Timmy Hill	25.5	36.7	36.7	36.7	36.3	-3	0	0	0	397

If you look at the loop data over the last 5 races at Phoenix, Kyle Busch stands out with a remarkable 131.5 average driver rating. Busch leads in both statistical categories involving fastest laps (246) and laps led (491) which is notable for fantasy racing competitors. Busch’s top rating is secured by an incredible run of finishes in recent events that includes two wins, two runner-up finishes, and a 3rd place showing in the last 5 starts. Simply put, it is the strongest data set that we have provided this season in terms of loop data ratings.

As we look throughout the loop data ratings, Kevin Harvick comfortably fills in the #2 spot. Harvick and Phoenix are synonymous with each other. Harvick once won 6 out of 8 races at Phoenix from 2012-2016 and has compiled the most wins (9) in NASCAR Cup Series history at this venue. After Busch and Harvick, we have Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, and Chase Elliott who all reach the prestigious triple digit averages this week. Hamlin and Elliott should be given extra value for their current form in terms of performance. I expect both drivers to have an excellent chance at the championship on Sunday. Meanwhile, Truex is a rather surprise to be rated so high on this list. Truex has never won in 29 career starts at Phoenix despite improving significantly in recent years on all smaller layouts. Truex would likely be a betting option this week if we were getting significant underdog value but that is not the case.

The biggest outlier on our loop data this week is Alex Bowman (71.0). Bowman has been among the front runners in recent weeks and appeared to be in the hunt for the championship 4 going into the Round of 8. While the championship bid did not work out, Bowman has been extremely fast for the majority of the season especially in recent weeks. However when you look at Bowman’s history at Phoenix, it is the least bit impressive. Bowman has posted a 22.7 average finishing position throughout his career at Phoenix and has only cracked the top 10 once. Based on current form, I would expect Bowman to challenge those results this weekend but we should also expect a regress from his performance in recent weeks since he routinely struggles at these stylistic layouts. Even with improvement, Bowman provides a solid fade opportunity against the favorites he is typically paired against in H2H match-ups!

*Loop data for Phoenix, Loudon, and Richmond races this season

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Brad Keselowski	134.3	9.0	1.3	4.3	3.7	42	123	128	458	1017
Joey Logano	119.1	8.0	5.7	2.7	5.0	80	134	68	105	1017
Kevin Harvick	118.9	3.3	10.3	4.7	7.0	20	156	131	114	1017
Chase Elliott	108.4	5.3	15.7	7.0	8.3	31	167	74	104	1017
Martin Truex Jr	102.9	12.3	6.7	12.3	8.7	64	141	35	11	983
Aric Almirola	101.2	5.7	5.7	7.7	8.3	24	176	26	2	1017
Denny Hamlin	92.0	4.0	15.7	11.3	12.7	45	86	73	137	1016
Clint Bowyer	88.4	11.7	8.7	11.0	11.0	7	188	5	0	1017
Matt DiBenedetto	88.1	14.7	18.0	12.0	12.7	21	150	10	0	1016
William Byron	82.1	12.7	14.0	14.0	14.0	-3	124	11	0	1015
Alex Bowman	82.1	6.7	14.7	12.7	12.7	-34	128	9	0	1017
Cole Custer	81.7	14.3	12.7	10.3	13.3	3	124	8	0	1016
Kyle Busch	80.8	7.0	15.7	15.7	17.0	34	125	26	4	731
Kurt Busch	78.7	8.3	13.3	12.0	12.7	-29	130	6	15	1016
Tyler Reddick	77.6	21.3	14.0	18.0	15.3	-20	111	17	0	965
Austin Dillon	77.3	18.7	16.3	17.7	18.0	10	81	75	58	830
Jimmie Johnson	72.2	19.7	19.0	18.3	18.7	7	106	19	0	1012
Christopher Bell	71.0	25.3	12.7	22.3	18.0	49	77	33	0	1014
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	66.8	24.3	22.3	18.0	20.3	13	48	32	0	1015
Matt Kenseth	66.7	20.0	12.5	26.5	18.5	-4	72	13	0	602
Ryan Blaney	64.8	10.7	20.7	25.3	21.0	10	51	12	5	764
Erik Jones	63.1	15.0	19.7	24.7	19.3	-4	73	8	0	1011
Ryan Preece	61.9	24.7	19.7	18.0	20.7	4	38	0	0	1015
Ryan Newman	58.0	21.5	21.0	22.0	19.5	-12	30	4	0	697
Michael McDowell	54.2	20.0	26.7	20.0	24.7	-24	6	8	0	1014
Ty Dillon	54.1	25.7	23.3	21.7	23.7	-28	10	2	0	1012
John Hunter Nemechek	53.5	31.0	21.7	30.3	24.0	10	32	9	0	924
Chris Buescher	53.4	24.0	24.3	22.0	23.3	-45	6	1	1	1013
Bubba Wallace	53.2	24.0	26.3	22.7	24.3	-60	19	6	0	1013
Corey LaJoie	44.0	31.7	22.7	29.7	27.0	-51	11	4	0	974
Daniel Suarez	43.2	32.0	28.0	25.3	27.7	-84	6	1	0	1011
J.J. Yeley	38.3	31.3	30.7	29.7	30.7	-22	0	3	0	1003
Brennan Poole	38.2	31.7	31.0	30.3	31.0	-16	0	1	1	981
Reed Sorenson	31.2	35.0	34.5	33.0	34.0	9	0	3	0	699
Quin Houff	31.2	33.0	34.3	32.7	34.0	-9	0	0	0	892
James Davison	30.8	32.0	34.5	33.5	34.0	-1	0	3	0	683
Garrett Smithley	28.9	31.5	35.5	33.0	34.0	-7	0	2	0	476
Joey Gase	28.4	33.7	33.3	32.7	34.3	-18	0	2	0	993
Timmy Hill	27.6	37.7	36.7	36.3	36.0	-13	0	2	0	445

I also compiled the loop data averages from the 3 races at Phoenix, Loudon, and Richmond this season to provide analytical insight to performance trends on the tracks that I label as stylistically similar. With a smaller sample size, outliers in the data can yield some variance meaning one really strong run or bad finish can skew the overall average. With that being said, Brad Keselowski still stands out with a really impressive 134.3 average thanks to winning both Loudon and Richmond races. I mentioned above that the Team Penske cars have been strong on the shorter layouts this season and these stats display that narrative with Keselowski and Logano owning the top two sports. Personally, I am pulling for Chase Elliott this weekend or Denny Hamlin due to his success this season.

With personal bias out of the equation, I believe the Team Penske cars likely have the best path to the championship due to their performance at similar tracks this season. Team Penske cars have always fired off with strong short-run speed this season but I expect they will be able to maintain that speed this weekend with minimal tire fall-off compared to Richmond and Loudon. I’m not ruling out the importance of tires on long green flag runs because we have already seen that play into some crazy strategy calls in the Truck Series championship on Friday night. I’m just saying the fall-off in lap times is not nearly as steep and that should play into the hands of the Team Penske cars. For that reason, Brad Keselowski (1) and Joey Logano (2) would be my predictions among the championship contenders on Sunday!

Betting Targets

Going into the week, I was hoping that odds would lend value towards Kyle Busch due to his subpar 2020 campaign and the fact that he is not in the Championship 4. Fortunately we get some value on Rowdy at 10 to 1 odds which considering his lucrative performance trend at Phoenix, it is about as good as we could expect. In the last 10 races at Phoenix, Busch has an incredible 2.9 average finishing position and has only finished worse than 4th once and that was a 7th place finish in 2017. I know the #18 has not been in the best form this season but they have shown speed in recent weeks. We simply can’t ignore the value on the #18 and should be trusted in all betting and fantasy formats.

Obviously win odds are relatively ugly again this week. Harvick, Logano, Keselowski, and Hamlin are all listed in the sub 5 to 1 range which is simply ridiculous to have that many drivers at such low odds. Even Chase Elliott who has performed very mediocre throughout his career at Phoenix, is listed at less than 6 to 1 odds at some books as of Friday night. Therefore, we are left scrapping for value against this week among the top favorites. While I don’t see true betting value in any of those drivers, I do feel like the Team Penske cars of Keselowski and Logano have been the best on these types of layouts this season. However, the margin of error for the favorites is razor thin making any bets extremely risky.

The betting value will likely come in the form of H2H match-ups this week and perhaps opportunistic prop bets. Two drivers that I expect to yield sharp value include both Aric Almirola and Cole Custer. For some reason, Almirola’s 2020 campaign has been largely unnoticed but he has performed extremely well. I think it is telling that Clint Bowyer is the one taking the retirement route when Almirola has consistently been viewed as the Stewart-Haas Racing’s weakest link. Instead, Almirola has performed exceptionally well and gets a chance to end the season at a venue where he has historically performed well. Almirola has posted top 10 finishes in 6 of his last 7 starts at Phoenix which includes a pair of 4th place finishes in the last 4 starts. Since the driver of the #10 car is routinely paired against intermediate drivers, this is a really good opportunity to target Almirola aggressively in all match-ups.

For Cole Custer, I have similar expectations. Custer has routinely been paired against rookies Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and other drivers in similar odds range each week. Not only has Custer outperformed all other rookies but this type of track really suits Custer’s driving style. The rookie finished 9th at Phoenix in just his 4th start this season and posted another top 10 at Richmond several weeks ago. I will also state the fact that I really favor the Fords on Sunday as those cars have been best on similar layouts. With those factors in mind, I believe Custer will be a confident H2H target on Sunday.

Draftkings Fantasy Options

Chase Elliott will be starting on the pole on Sunday and if he can lead many early laps; his ceiling will be elevated greatly. However, I believe Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are the best fantasy anchors this week among the favorites. Both drivers have been excellent this season on similar layouts and are reasonably priced especially Logano at just $10,000. I thought Martin Truex would have value this week but Draftkings elevated his price to the most expensive tag on the board. Truex could still provide value from the 13th place starting position but his salary is steep.

*Update: Elliott failed pre-race inspection and will be starting at the rear of the field. As a result, his fantasy ceiling is significantly downgraded. Please consider for final fantasy line-ups!

For value options, I would build lineups around the likes of Kyle Busch ($9,600), Aric Almirola ($7,800), Chris Buescher ($7,200), and Cole Custer ($6,900). All of those drivers have a high likelihood of returning value and provide salary relief to the majority of line-ups. Buescher is starting from the 31st position after a string of bad finishes which makes him one of the safest options to return value barring any additional bad luck. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch may not have the current dominant form that we desire but he still remains a cheaper option to leverage against the favorites/championship contenders. If for some reason you need an even cheaper option on Sunday, my dart throw pick would be John Hunter Nemechek at $5,500. JHN has overachieved all season and should be able to move forward from the 27th starting position.

Draftkings Season Finale 500 Optimal Lineup

2020 Season Finale 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +400 (1.5 units)
Kyle Busch +1000 (1 unit)
Martin Truex +1200 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1600 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +3300 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Aric Almirola -110 over Alex Bowman (3 units)
Cole Custer -125 over Tyler Reddick (3 units)
Kyle Busch +150 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Martin Truex +125 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Cole Custer +225 wins Group 5 (Johnson, Reddick, A. Dillon)(1 unit)