2020 Racing Experience 300 Preview
NASCAR Xfinity Series Preview
Saturday February 15th, 2:30PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Xfinity Series will take center stage Saturday afternoon with the running of the Racing Experience 300 at Daytona International Speedway. Tomorrow’s 300 mile event at Daytona will kick off the first race of the season in the Xfinity Series and move us one step closer to Sunday’s Daytona 500. Unfortunately the current state of the Xfinity Series, in terms of competitors, do not leave much to be desired for bettors on Saturday. In fact, 7 drivers are listed at 10-1 or less odds which is pretty bizarre considering those drivers combined for just 2 wins on traditional ovals in 2019. As a result, our official betting picks for Daytona will not start until Sunday’s grand event. However, I still wanted to take the time to discuss the Xfinity Series opener and provide our 2020 Racing Experience 300 preview!
If you missed yesterday’s Truck Series preview, I went into a full explanation of why I tend to avoid the opening races at Daytona among the Truck and Xfinity Series. Simply put, there is just not enough handicapping advantage to warrant 3 rounds of betting action. I think there are better odds for the Daytona 500 and too much uncertainty with young drivers in the lower series. Therefore official picks will kick off on Sunday. For tomorrow’s Racing Experience 300, my biggest problem is the odds. I understand often the favorites have saturated value which is disappointing. However even if you look at some of the long shots, their odds are embarrassing. For example, Jeb Burton, Brandon Jones, and Michael Annett are all listed at less than 20-1 odds which is simply asinine for bettors trying to find value.
In general, the Xfinity Series should be very intriguing this year and I expect a ton of parity. The Big 3 (Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, and Tyler Reddick) have all moved onto the Cup Series. Ross Chastain captured a full-time quality ride in the #10 for Kaulig Racing, Justin Haley returns to the Xfinity Series for full-time competition, and Daniel Hemric will run the majority of the schedule in the #8 for J.R. Motorsports. Meanwhile youngsters Harrison Burton and Riley Herbst will be the lead contenders for the Rookie of the Year battle in quality rides for Joe Gibbs Racing. When you consider the young talent in the series combined with the fact there is not an overly threatening veteran class, this season could be wide open. I’m not sure if we will see anyone dominate like we have in years past and hopefully that will keep odds competitive throughout the year on traditional ovals.
2020 Racing Experience 300 Predictions
For Saturday’s Racing Experience 300, we should expect that AJ Allmendinger and Ross Chastain will be legitimate top tier threats. Both drivers will be teammates and try to duplicate their success at Daytona last July when Kaulig Racing finishes 1-3 with Chastain winning, Justin Haley 2nd, and Allmendinger in 3rd. While Allmendinger’s finish was encumbered due to post-race inspection violations, the Kaulig Racing teammates worked extremely well in that race. It would also be worth mentioning that Haley went on to win the Coke Zero 400 in the Cup Series in that July race thanks to Mother Nature. Either way, those drivers are excellent superspeedway talents and their aggressive driving style is the perfect recipe for checkers or wreckers.
If the Kaulig Racing Chevrolets do not get the job done, the J.R Motorsports cars have historically run well at Daytona. J.R Motorsports has 3 wins in the last 8 races at Daytona. Noah Gragson led the opening practice session and continues to improve his superspeedway skill set. Justin Allgaier is likely one of the best superspeedway talents in the field and Michael Annett is the defending winner of the Racing Experience 300. If wrecks do not ruin strategy, teams will put heavy focus on attempting to work together in tomorrow’s race. With that being said, I believe the Toyota/Fords will be outnumbered unless wrecks level the playing field.
Surprisingly, Toyota has just 2 wins in the last 22 starts at Daytona in the Xfinity Series. If you consider the experience gap from the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers and the fact they will be heavily outnumbered, we should have lower expectations for the likes of Riley Herbst, Harrison Burton, and Brandon Jones. Likewise, I think the Ford’s will have similar struggles with just 2 Fords (Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe) in the entire field on Saturday. I would not be surprised if Briscoe finds a way to make it to the front but I still think the odds are stacked against them.
If you are looking for potential long shots or dark horses that may give you the best payout potential, I believe guys like Noah Gragson, Jeb Burton, Myatt Snider deserve some consideration. I mentioned J.R Motorsports success at Daytona earlier but did not mention that Jeb Burton will pilot the #8 machine for the team on Saturday. Burton has had a few chances in the Xfinity Series but has yet to have that breakout moment. That moment nearly occured in 2017 at Daytona when he posted his best career finish of 4th behind the #24 car for James Whitener. With better equipment, this should be a good opportunity for Burton. Likewise, Myatt Snider will get a similar opportunity. After racing overseas in 2019, Snider will run a partial schedule with the #21 team starting Saturday. Snider showed some really good superspeedway skills in the Truck Series and I would label Snider as an undervalued betting option going into the weekend.
From a value standpoint, I would elevate Justin Haley as a justifiable roster anchor. Haley should be among the favorites in tomorrow’s field but is getting twice the value compared to Allgaier, Allmendinger, and Chastain. Perhaps the odds among the top 3 drivers will get better tomorrow with qualifying scheduled for tomorrow morning. Qualifying always provides the possibility of line movement and there is a chance odds could get better for certain drivers. However, I can’t fathom much rationale in taking anyone at less than 8-1 odds because none of the so-called “favorites” have proved that level of dominance in the Xfinity Series. For those that decide to place wagers on tomorrow’s race, just make sure you are getting the best return on your bets and hope for the best!
*Update – AJ Allmendinger and Ross Chastain failed to qualify. Chastain will drive the #38 for Jeff Green
