2020 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday July 12th, 2:30PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After 3 straight days of racing, the Cup Series will finally get their turn at Kentucky Speedway when the green flag waves for the Quaker State 400. Nearly a year ago, brothers Kurt and Kyle Busch banged doors on the last lap to produce one of the most exciting finishes of the season. The elder Busch brother came away with the victory which was the first victory by a Chevrolet manufacturer in Kentucky Speedway history. For Sunday’s Quaker State 400, we hope to see another finish but expect track position to be the name of the game just as we have seen all week. Take a look as we discuss our expectations and provide our 2020 Quaker State 400 race picks!

If you breezed through my earlier previews this week, let me reiterate that Kentucky Speedway has one of the newest surfaces in the Cup Series. The track was repaved and reconfigured in 2016. Since the reconfiguration and repave, the track produces a lot of grip despite the fact the surface remains bumpy. With the increased grip level and traction compound added to the outer groove, passing is very difficult. In the Xfinity Series races on Thursday and Friday, we saw multiple wrecks from cars attempting passes and sliding up into cars in that outside groove. With less grip on the bottom (where passes are usually attempted), it can make things very frustrating for drivers. Because passing is so difficult, clean air and track position becomes extremely important. Not only will drivers be aggressive in trying to maintain track position but every pit stop will be critical to earning valuable track position which will be needed for a chance at victory.

I know Sunday’s race at Kentucky is 400 miles meaning there will be plenty of time for drivers to work their way through the field. However, I would not completely overlook starting positions. Track position has always been important at Kentucky with the winner coming from the first two rows in 6 of the 9 races in the track’s young history. The winner has actually started from the pole position on 3 different occasions and though Sunday’s starting line-up is the product of a random draw; Kyle Busch will be in the perfect position to go after his first victory of the season at a venue where he has won twice in 9 career starts including the inaugural race back in 2011.

Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	124.3	4.5	4.0	7.8	5.0	34	152	218	372	1076
Kyle Busch	121.1	5.5	2.0	5.8	4.3	5	163	136	184	1077
Kevin Harvick	109.0	4.0	3.8	11.3	5.5	24	153	78	128	1076
Erik Jones	98.3	12.3	7.3	5.3	9.7	14	128	32	1	810
Kurt Busch	98.3	7.8	10.3	10.3	10.0	24	136	51	96	1067
Matt Kenseth	93.3	10.3	9.7	14.7	9.7	-6	80	12	2	807
Brad Keselowski	90.2	4.8	19.8	15.8	15.3	-26	65	41	116	891
Ryan Blaney	89.8	10.8	19.5	15.0	14.3	-16	115	34	1	952
Denny Hamlin	87.3	17.3	10.8	10.0	12.5	20	154	19	5	1077
Aric Almirola	86.6	13.3	11.7	14.0	12.3	-2	95	22	0	802
Joey Logano	85.4	11.3	22.3	16.0	15.5	-28	120	42	31	862
Chase Elliott	85.1	14.0	22.5	15.5	15.8	52	132	6	0	1020
Clint Bowyer	85.0	14.0	11.8	13.5	14.0	-20	102	11	40	1074
Daniel Suarez	84.8	7.0	20.3	13.7	13.7	-26	90	12	52	809
Ryan Newman	74.7	22.0	19.8	13.8	16.8	-7	83	5	15	1075
Austin Dillon	70.7	14.8	12.5	23.0	19.3	-46	62	26	1	1043
William Byron	69.9	16.5	15.0	19.0	17.0	-5	44	13	0	535
Alex Bowman	62.9	18.5	21.0	28.0	23.0	-38	46	10	1	376
Jimmie Johnson	62.5	14.3	25.0	29.0	23.3	13	60	9	3	828
Bubba Wallace	60.5	23.0	19.0	20.3	20.0	-1	56	3	0	804
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	59.9	17.3	28.5	23.0	23.8	-33	79	13	21	817
Chris Buescher	57.6	25.3	23.5	21.5	23.0	10	46	8	0	900
Michael McDowell	51.7	20.3	22.7	24.0	23.0	-13	30	2	0	804
Ty Dillon	45.8	27.8	29.3	28.3	27.8	1	18	4	1	1047
Matt DiBenedetto	42.7	31.3	30.0	29.0	28.8	16	18	0	0	818
Ross Chastain	38.4	31.0	27.0	29.5	29.5	6	5	0	0	527
Corey LaJoie	37.8	29.5	27.5	29.5	30.0	-2	1	0	0	526
Timmy Hill	30.2	38.5	34.0	32.5	34.5	11	0	0	0	515
B.J. McLeod	29.0	35.0	34.0	33.3	34.7	3	0	0	0	626

As we observe loop data trends, I want to make an important note to the statistics above. Typically I provide results from the prior 5 races but since Kentucky was repaved prior to the 2016 event; I thought it would be better to provide the last 4 events since the repave and reconfiguration. With that being said, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch emerge this week as the most impressive favorites in terms of loop data. Before Kurt Busch’s win last year, Truex dominated back to back races at Kentucky from 2017-2018 and has led 372 laps in the last 4 races since the repave. Meanwhile, Kyle Busch has not won at Kentucky since 2015 but has posted 3 straight top 5 finishes in the last 3 starts.

Further down the loop data rankings, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Erik Jones have all posted solid marks over the last several races. Kentucky happens to be Erik Jones best track statistically with finishes of 6th, 7th, and 3rd in 3 career starts. Brad Keselowski also deserves a notable mention with a 90.2 ranking. Keselowski owns the most wins (3) in Kentucky history and likely deserves more betting consideration this week with the momentum the #2 team has shown in recent races.

Handicapping Notebook

Though loop data is always an important handicapping tool, we should point out the fact that prior track and driver history take a bit of a backseat this week in our handicapping formula. Kentucky Speedway favors raw aerodynamic speed. It may seem like that is the case for every track but it is very important at Kentucky due to the amount of on-throttle time with the grip level. Normally we rarely see the fastest car get the victory in weekly races but Austin Cindric proved in both Xfinity Series races that raw speed is very difficult to overcome if you don’t make mistakes when you get the lead. Sure, we could see some late race strategy where a driver gets track position late and capitalizes on the opportunity. However, “speed” will be what gets drivers in position for a chance at victory. As a result, we should really put our betting focus to the teams that have displayed the best aerodynamic speed this season under this package.

Drivers to Target

In terms of the best pure speed, Kevin Harvick remains the top target going into Sunday from a probability standpoint. Harvick’s win at the Brickyard last week was his 2nd victory in the last 3 races at places that are notorious for speed. However, I do think this week’s race favors Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske to a certain degree. Both organizations have produced the most speed at the 1.5 mile venues which may come to light when the green flag waves on Sunday.

I mentioned Brad Keselowski’s elevated stock earlier with the recent momentum and past success at Kentucky. I think we can also elevate Ryan Blaney’s outlook for Sunday as well. Blaney has been the best of the Team Penske cars at the 1.5 mile tracks this season and this should be an excellent opportunity for #12 team to flex their muscles. In regards to the JGR camp, I favor Kyle Busch this week despite the fact that Denny Hamlin has been extremely hot. Some may be want to target Martin Truex due to his success at Kentucky but I don’t think the #19 team is nearly as strong as they were through that dominant stretch from 2017-2018 on the 1.5 mile surfaces. Outside of Busch, Erik Jones presents underdog value yet again this week based on speed and history. Jones has been hit with a run of bad luck in recent weeks but the speed is there for the #20 team if they can execute.

When I breakdown all of the betting options, my favorite targets include Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones from a value standpoint. I believe both drivers provide excellent H2H value and have the potential to race for the win. I would also throw Tyler Reddick into the group to target in the form of H2H match-ups. I don’t necessarily believe Reddick will make a run at the win or have the ceiling we expected back at Homestead. However, Reddick has had several rough finishes in recent weeks and his weekly expectations have soured. With the Cup Series returning to another 1.5 mile venue that requires significant on-throttle time, this should be the perfect setup for Reddick and the #8 team to rebound with a quality performance.

Drivers to Fade

Last week, I mentioned that Aric Almirola deserved to be targeted in all H2H match-ups with another favorable track style for a team that had a lot of momentum following Pocono. Despite never cracking the top 10 at Indianapolis, Almirola recorded his best career finish at the Brickyard with a 3rd place result. Almirola has now put a string of 5 top 5 finishes together which is the best streak of his career. However, I do believe we will see that streak end this week. I don’t think the Stewart-Haas Racing cars will have the advantage that we saw at Pocono and Indianapolis. Furthermore, Almirola has never been very strong at the 1.5 mile tracks with characteristics similar to Kentucky. Since the value has risen on Almirola, I believe we have the perfect recipe to fade the #10 this week against upper echelon competitors.

An additional fade target this week includes Michael McDowell. I was targeting McDowell in multiple fantasy formats last week at Indianapolis and it resulted in McDowell’s best finish (7th) of the season. After posting two top 10 finishes at Pocono and Indianapolis, McDowell’s stock has risen slightly despite the fact those were two of his better tracks. At traditional ovals, the #34 team has struggled in a significant way and I expect McDowell will regress from his hot streak on Sunday. This team was awful at Las Vegas using the same GoodYear tire code and if we can find match-ups to fade McDowell; I believe it will be worth the effort!

2020 Quaker State 400 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +900 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1050 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit)
Kurt Busch +2500 (.5 unit) *early play
Erik Jones +3300 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Johnny Sauter +115 over Chandler Smith (win)
Kyle Busch/Chase Elliott +289 wins Quaker State 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +735

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ricky Stenhouse Jr -130 over Bubba Wallace (2 units)
Martin Truex -118 does not finish Top 5 (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)