2020 Production Alliance Group 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday February 29th, 4:14PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The battle for supremacy in the Xfinity Series continues today with the running of the Production Alliance Group 300 at Auto Club Speedway. Chase Briscoe won the opening round of the west coast swing last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and perhaps proved that he may be the driver to beat this season in the series. Briscoe will be the overall favorite again this afternoon on a rugged 2.0 mile surface at Auto Club Speedway that historically favors the best driving talents over pure speed. Until last year’s victory by Cole Custer, Cup Series drivers had won 23 straight races at Auto Club Speedway in the Xfinity Series. Therefore today’s 300 mile race should give us a great understanding of the talent rating in this year’s series and perhaps set the tone for the remainder of the season. Take a look as we provide our 2020 Production Alliance Group 300 race picks!

Auto Club Speedway produces significant tire wear due to the rugged surface and the grip level is nearly non-existent for a larger sized speedway. As a result, drivers will consistently have to fight the wheel to keep the car under them while trying to keep their foot on the pedal. In reality, this is a driver’s racetrack mirroring the likes of Darlington and Homestead in many ways. For that reason, we have rarely seen any true “surprise” winners in this race. Cole Custer’s win last year over Kyle Busch was perhaps the most surprising in the last two decades. However, I believe Custer proved that he was a top tier talent by going on to win 6 additional times throughout the remainder of 2019. Needless to say, this is not the track to target many dark horse/long shot type betting options and perhaps we continue to stay a little conservative from a strategy standpoint due to decreased ROI potential.

In my opinion, we could probably handicap this race on pure driving talent because history tells us those drivers will likely emerge at the front of the field. It’s rather peculiar because typically when you think of a large 2.0 mile speedway, speed would seemingly be the most important factor. However, the grip level at Auto Club Speedway combined with the significant tire wear requires a high level of talent behind the steering wheel to keep speed in the car throughout an entire run. For those factors alone, Chase Briscoe likely deserves the overall favorite spot in terms of betting odds. I said before last week’s win that Briscoe is likely the most “talented” driver in the field and I believe that opinion remains solid. Behind Briscoe, Ross Chastain could easily make the argument for most talented. My only problem with Chastain is that Kaulig Racing does not have “premier” equipment as some of the other top teams. Behind those two threats, I would likely consider Austin Cindric and Justin Allgaier as the most talented drivers remaining.

Production Alliance Group 300 Practice Notes

In practices on Friday, Chase Briscoe and Harrison Burton emerged from the pack on the speed charts. Burton was actually best on the stopwatch leading all competitors with the best overall average and 10 lap averages in final practice. I was really impressed with Burton at Las Vegas and took him as an early H2H option against Michael Annett in our email plays this week. If the #20 can stay out of trouble, I think he can have another great run on Saturday. For the #98 car, Briscoe’s times were not quite as fast early in the run but I thought he had really good long run speed which is most important. Briscoe is one of those drivers that usually gets better as the green flag runs progress which is ideal for this type of venue. Therefore, I still consider the #98 the top threat going into today’s event.

If there are any surprises awaiting today’s race, Austin Cindric and Noah Gragson could be sharp options to consider. I personally thought Cindric had the fastest car at Vegas last week but I thought Briscoe simply outdrove him in the closing laps when he gained track position. Either way, the #22 has shown speed and Cindric’s driving style typically favors long run speed. Noah Gragson may be the sharper betting option in the realm of H2H bets. I say that because the #9 car lacked takeoff speed but had really solid long run speed. If Gragson fails to post a good qualifying effort, there could be some solid value in him moving forward once the laps start to tick off.

If you are wondering about some deeper options in the field for either H2H or fantasy purposes, I believe the likes of Anthony Alfredo and Riley Herbst could be drivers to keep on the radar. Herbst had a rough outing last week at Vegas but he is in the #18 machine that has seen great success at Auto Club Speedway. More importantly, Herbst is a talented driver that is going to get better with every start. Meanwhile, Alfredo will jump behind the wheel of the #21 this week which was really fast last week with Myatt Snider behind the wheel. Snider is actually in the #93 car this week for RSS Racing and Alfredo’s scheduled start with RCR should be a great opportunity for a solid outing if he can keep the fenders on the car.

Drivers to Fade

As it currently stands, there are a limited number of match-ups posted for today’s Production Alliance Group 300. I am hoping that books expand their H2H betting options after qualifying to include more match-ups. I would really look to fade guys like Austin Hill and Jeremy Clements who are middle-tiered drivers with perhaps bigger names. Hill has actually performed well in both of his Xfinity Series starts despite a DNF at Daytona after getting caught up in an accident. Hill is piloting the #61 this week for Hattori Racing which is also the same owner of his Truck Series team that has shown success over the last two years. The problem Hill has is that the equipment in the #61 car is based around a 2018 Toyota body which creates a pretty big disadvantage in terms of aerodynamics. I would love to find a match-up fading the #61 car but I simply don’t know if that will be an option.

Meanwhile, I am also considering fades against the likes of Jeremy Clements and perhaps Justin Allgaier. I thought Clements struggled significantly in practices and there will be better middle-tier choices to choose from. For Justin Allgaier, I am provoking the idea of a sharp fade. Allgaier is definitely going to be one of the better talents in the Xfinity Series this season but he has never performed well at the high tire wear tracks. Allgaier has just one top 5 finish in his 11 career starts at Auto Club Speedway. Allgaier has struggled by fading as races progress over the last couple of years and we saw it again last week at Vegas. If that trend holds true in the slightest way, it will be magnified at a place like Fontana which provides some sharp fade value if you are bold enough to pull the trigger.

2020 Production Alliance Group 300 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Production Alliance Group 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +600 (1.25 units)
Austin Cindric +1000 (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +6000 (.25 unit)

H2H Bets

Riley Herbst -115 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Harrison Burton -130 over Michael Annett (2 units) *early pick