2020 Pocono Organics 325 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Saturday June 27th, 3:30PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Cup Series will host back to back races at Pocono Raceway this weekend starting with Saturday’s Pocono Organics 325. NASCAR has an action packed weekend scheduled that features a Truck Series and Cup Series race on Saturday followed by the Xfinity Series and Cup Series again on Sunday. Despite numerous schedule adjustments due to COVID-19, this particular schedule has not changed and was planned last year for back to back Cup Series races at Pocono on the same weekend for the first time in series history. With numerous betting opportunities on the horizon, let’s take the time to break down our expectations for this weekend’s races at Pocono with our 2020 Pocono Organics 325 race picks!

Pocono Raceway is a 2.5 mile triangle shaped surface with 3 completely distinct corners which yields the nickname the “Tricky Triangle.” The track was originally designed by former Indy 500 winner Rodger Ward. Each turn is modeled to mirror different race tracks. Turn 1 was modeled after Trenton Speedway which was a well-known open wheel track and host to a few NASCAR events in the late 1960s to early 1970s. Turn 2, which is often described as the “tunnel turn,” was modeled after Indianapolis Motor Speedway for it’s flat sweeping turns. Lastly, turn 3 was mirrored to resemble the Milwaukee Mile which formerly held Cup Series events from 1984-2009 and featured relatively flat paper-clip shaped corners.

The reason I wanted to start things off by describing the unique characteristics of Pocono Raceway is to stress the importance of setups and balance this weekend. Drivers will often tell you that it is impossible to get a car to work perfectly throughout every corner because of the distinct differences from one corner to the next. Without any practices or pre-race activities again this week, teams will have to nail their setups to ensure they give their driver a balanced car that can be strong at every end of the track. Setup and balance adjustments are very important to Pocono Raceway so if any teams miss the mark on Saturday then it could turn into a long afternoon! On the flip side, if teams get the setup close. The rest of the formula to success boils down to speed and track position. With both Saturday and Sunday’s race being slightly shorter than normal, track position will be incredibly important as passing has proven to be difficult under this package at Pocono Raceway.

Pocono Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	131.4	8.2	4.8	3.0	4.8	-42	184	162	274	807
Kevin Harvick	119.6	9.8	7.8	7.6	6.2	-8	166	124	181	806
Denny Hamlin	107.3	6.2	7.2	11.2	7.2	-89	167	44	56	793
Martin Truex Jr	103.6	8.4	9.4	11.4	10.0	-42	163	60	62	738
Erik Jones	101.8	9.0	9.6	9.4	9.4	-64	173	26	25	806
Clint Bowyer	99.4	12.6	8.2	10.6	9.6	37	192	14	7	807
Brad Keselowski	97.2	9.6	6.0	11.6	11.4	72	182	43	21	764
Chase Elliott	96.0	12.0	6.6	13.8	11.6	29	184	18	16	727
William Byron	89.0	21.5	14.3	9.3	12.3	37	140	13	35	647
Daniel Suarez	85.3	8.6	12.6	13.0	13.0	-18	129	22	38	807
Joey Logano	82.0	13.0	16.2	16.4	15.2	6	128	4	0	806
Ryan Blaney	81.4	17.2	17.8	14.0	16.0	-5	151	13	11	805
Alex Bowman	78.6	12.8	13.0	16.3	13.8	12	140	2	0	647
Kurt Busch	77.3	11.6	15.0	15.8	15.6	51	140	16	11	806
Jimmie Johnson	75.3	20.8	19.0	18.8	15.2	-24	146	6	5	704
Aric Almirola	73.2	21.8	18.6	18.4	19.0	59	127	10	0	647
Ryan Newman	72.2	15.0	18.6	15.4	15.8	-33	142	1	0	807
Matt Kenseth	71.8	17.3	20.3	13.3	19.7	-18	43	2	9	484
Austin Dillon	62.1	23.8	18.8	20.4	20.2	-20	101	0	2	674
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	62.0	18.6	24.6	21.0	19.8	15	75	8	11	793
Chris Buescher	57.5	24.0	26.2	22.4	24.4	54	37	3	0	765
Michael McDowell	53.5	24.6	23.2	20.0	23.4	33	49	4	0	806
Bubba Wallace	53.4	26.3	16.8	28.5	23.3	-16	41	0	4	584
Ryan Preece	49.0	24.5	21.5	30.0	25.5	7	6	0	0	273
Ty Dillon	47.2	24.8	28.8	24.0	26.8	-7	6	3	0	800
Matt DiBenedetto	47.0	22.2	27.8	27.0	26.8	10	39	0	0	601
Corey LaJoie	37.8	31.0	30.0	31.5	30.3	-27	6	1	0	484
J.J. Yeley	33.9	31.3	34.7	31.3	33.7	12	0	0	0	431
Gray Gaulding	31.7	35.5	33.0	32.0	32.0	-6	0	0	0	314
Quin Houff	29.6	32.0	32.5	30.0	33.0	9	0	0	0	315
B.J. McLeod	26.2	26.5	36.5	36.5	36.5	-14	0	0	0	235

Before we jump straight into the loop data, I want to make one important mention that is important to consider for races at Pocono and it revolves around the drivers that are good on flat surfaces. This may seem like an overhyped angle but trust me there is a huge difference in how drivers attack corners on a flat surface which requires a different skill set. If you look at drivers that have success at Pocono, you will likely see they have similar success or results at places like Indianapolis and New Hampshire despite the vast differences in the sizes of those tracks. As a result, guys like Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Kyle Busch routinely emerge at the front of the field for top-tier talents on flatter surfaces.

In terms of loop data, Kyle Busch has posted a ridiculous 131.4 rating over the last 5 races at Pocono which includes 3 wins during that incredible stretch. Rowdy has posted the most laps led (274) and the most fastest laps (162) among active drivers through that stretch of races. Despite not having any Pocono wins in 38 career starts, Kevin Harvick has been so close so many times. Harvick has posted 4 runner-up finishes in the last 10 races and has recorded a solid 119.6 average rating. Meanwhile Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, and Erik Jones have all posted plus 100 ratings. Hamlin owns the most career victories (5) at Pocono among active drivers. Truex has won twice in the last 9 starts and Erik Jones has the best average finish (8.3) among active drivers through 6 career starts.

Though the loop data stats may show Brad Keselowski is slightly shy of the prestigious 100 plus average rating, I would throw Bad Brad into that upper-echelon of guys as well. Keselowski is a former Pocono winner and has recorded top 5 finishes in 6 of his last 8 races at Pocono. On the other end of the spectrum, Matt DiBenedetto and Ty Dillon show up as drivers that come in well-below the norm. Pocono has actually been DiBenedetto’s worst track with a 29.6 average finishing position throughout his career. Meanwhile, Ty Dillon has posted an embarrassing 22.1 average finishing position through his 8 career starts and has never finished inside the top 15.

Pocono Organics 325 Betting Targets

I keep wondering how far we can go into the season before Kyle Busch gets to victory lane. Through 13 races, Rowdy has been shut out despite 6 top 5 finishes. Denny Hamlin proved last week that the Joe Gibbs Racing issues are likely not as bad as we may have thought and when you think of Pocono it’s hard to ignore the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing as they have won the last 5 straight races. For Busch specifically, he has shown a lot of speed at the bigger tracks this year (E.g Auto Club Speedway). Therefore, I think this has to be one of Rowdy’s best opportunities to visit victory lane. I know that is not a stretch given Rowdy’s run of success in recent races at Pocono but I really believe he will get the job done again at some point this weekend unless the team completely misses the setup or has misfortune.

Outside of Rowdy, you have a tight group of favorites that should include Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick.. Despite the winless streak, Harvick remains a top tier threat in this race based on the strong performance trends. I don’t think anyone could argue against the momentum of the #2 and #11 teams. Additionally, Hamlin’s 5 career wins are hard to ignore. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott remains a weekly betting favorite because he continues to be extremely good under this rules package. He has been in contention in every event this season at some point under this package and holds a pretty solid Pocono resume.

If I am forced to break down the best of the favorites outside of Kyle Busch, I’m not sure if I would side with Harvick just because they have been a touch inconsistent in recent weeks and additionally I do not like betting on winless streaks to end. If I had to pick, I would actually side with Hamlin again this week as another top-tier betting option to possibly get another victory. My opinion could change following Saturday’s race but we will have to see how things unfold on Saturday. One important thing to note for this weekend’s races is that teams will have to use the same car on Saturday and Sunday unless approved by NASCAR. Therefore, there should not be too much disparity from Saturday into Sunday.

Two of my favorite betting targets for Pocono include Erik Jones and William Byron. When I spoke to the importance of flat track skills earlier, Erik Jones is a driver that fits that narrative perfectly. Jones’ career was elevated with underdog wins in the Truck Series at Phoenix and he has shown a great knack for getting around the flatter surfaces. Jones actually leads all active drivers with an 8.3 average finishing position including top 5 finishes in 4 of his 6 career starts at Pocono. Meanwhile, William Byron may be overlooked going into the weekend which begs some sharp betting potential. Byron has recorded finishes of 6th, 9th, and 4th in his last 3 Pocono starts during the height of Chevrolets struggles. With better performance from Hendrick Motorsports this year, Byron is poised to take a step forward if the #24 team can deliver a good car. I think both Jones and Byron could be potential dark horse picks for the outright win and possibly be even better H2H/fantasy targets throughout the weekend!

Sharp Fades

So far this season, Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team have done a great job of turning around a disastrous 2019 campaign and finding ways to stay competitive with numerous quality performances. Going into this weekend, I believe we have a perfect situation to fade the #48 team. Johnson is a 3-time Pocono winner and with his improved performance in recent weeks, I expect his stock will be overrated. Johnson won twice in his first 6 career starts at Pocono back during the #48 team’s dominance. However, Johnson has rarely had quality performances in recent years at Pocono. Despite the Hendrick struggles which obviously contribute to those struggles, Johnson has failed to hit median expectations at Pocono with just 1 top 10 finish in the last 8 career starts. Therefore, I think we have one of those circumstances where expectations are rising at a track where it would not be surprising to see the #48 team take a step backwards.

Another pair of drivers that I have on my fade list includes both Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth. Logano is among the upper-tier drivers so you may be able to fade him against some of the popular names going into Saturday. I will admit fading the #22 is a bit risky because they have been running strong which is usually a red flag in terms of fade targets. I am simply suggesting Logano as a potential fade candidate based on his track history which features just 4 top 5 finishes in 22 career starts along with numerous mediocre finishes. For Matt Kenseth, I am more confident in fading the #42 car granted he will be paired against less favorable competition. Kenseth has not impressed in his backup role for Kyle Larson at Chip Ganassi Racing this year and now visits one of the tracks where he has never been strong. With 3 straight finishes outside the top 20, Kenseth should be a primary fade target!

Pocono Fantasy Racing Targets

After several disappointing weeks, our optimal lineup finally cashed a big payday last week at Talladega of all places. In reality, it’s hard to nail a fantasy gpp with just one single lineup in NASCAR because cars will wreck, drivers/teams will get penalties, and other things will happen. You really need some luck on your side to go mistake free with a single line-up and if you have the bankroll; entering multiple line-ups with a larger degree of variance is the best strategy. However, there are some weeks where fantasy and handicapping walk a close line which happens to be the case for this week’s race at Pocono.

In terms of fantasy value this week, I remain keen on Erik Jones ($7,100) and William Byron ($8,400) as value plays. Both drivers are starting 16th and 19th with legitimate top 5 potential. At just $7,100, Jones is one of the most underrated drivers on the board. Daniel Suarez ($6,900), Corey LaJoie ($5,600), and Michael McDowell ($5,500) are a few cheap flier options that are starting towards the back and have some positive place-differential potential. I actually favor McDowell who is quietly starting to put together some momentum and goes to a track where he usually exceeds expectations.

The difficult part is determining the best “favorites” to take this week. Which drivers are going to get our front to get the bonus points from laps led and fastest laps posted? Since this is a short race, those points will be extremely valuable. I personally believe both Kyle Busch ($9,300) and Denny Hamlin ($8,800) are priced very favorably. The downside if we are wrong with any of those picks it could ruin our line-up. Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick are good pivot options among the favorites. Martin Truex will likely not have high ownership this week which makes him a great pivot option. Truex is a two-time winner at Pocono with two 3rd place finishes and a win coming in his last 5 starts.

2020 Pocono Organics 325 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Pocono Organics 325 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +850 (1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1000 (1 unit)
Erik Jones +1800 (.75 unit) *early play
William Byron +2200 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +7000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick/Denny Hamlin +330 wins Pocono Organics 325
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units) *early play
Chase Elliott -110 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Clint Bowyer +950 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)