2020 Pocono Green 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 28th, 2020 12:30PM EST at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series will take the green flag at Pocono Raceway early Sunday with the running of the Pocono Green 225. Shortly after the Xfinity Series concludes, the Cup Series will also go racing for the 2nd straight day at Pocono which yields numerous betting opportunities for both Saturday and Sunday. For Sunday’s Xfinity Series event, it marks just the 5th race in series history at Pocono. Despite Cup and Truck Series teams that have been racing at the Tricky Triangle for many years, Xfinity Series participation only began in 2016 yielding wins to the likes of Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and most recently Cole Custer. Now we have the opportunity to discuss who will be next to add their name to the list as we present our 2020 Pocono Green 225 race picks!

Unlike the higher downforce package currently being used in the Cup Series, Xfinity Series’ cars are tapered with less downforce which puts a bit more emphasis on the driver and raw speed this week. I mentioned how important setup balance was for the Cup Series cars this week and while that is always important to a certain extent; Xfinity Series teams will be looking for the most aerodynamic speed this week in efforts to contend for victory. Therefore, handicapping strategy for this Xfinity Series race differs slightly from that of the Cup Series where we will be focused more to the teams/cars that have shown the most raw speed this season as our primary betting angle.

Unlike prior races at Pocono in the Xfinity Series, there are not any major Cup Series stars participating this weekend which is largely a result of the back to back races on Saturday and Sunday. So far this season, we have seen that the competition among the Xfinity Series regulars is on a pretty level playing field. While Chase Briscoe has emerged as the next potential star, we have seen numerous drivers contend for victories. Harrison Burton has rather surprisingly scored multiple wins, Noah Gragson has taken a big step forward, Austin Cindric has been fast everywhere, and other drivers like Justin Allgaier, Brandon Jones, and Ross Chastain are weekly talents that could also steal a victory with any given opportunity.

With so much parity in the Xfinity Series, I remain relatively disappointed in weekly betting odds in this particular series. As it currently stands, Chase Briscoe’s odds are oversaturated at less than 3 to 1, the same can be said for the winless Austin Cindric at less than 5 to 1 odds, and there are 4 additional drivers listed at less than 10 to 1 odds. Simply put, betting odds are extremely top heavy which is the bookies way of saying they have no idea who should truly be the favorites this week therefore odds value has been drained from the most likely contenders. As a result, we may have to approach Sunday’s Xfinity Series event very conservatively and downgrade our overall risks because the ROI value is simply not there.

Drivers to Target

Before odds were released, I really had my focus geared up towards Austin Cindric again this week. Cindric has let me down on a few occasions this year but the #22 team remains one of the fastest cars at the horsepower tracks. However, I’m not sure if we can warrant any bets on Cindric at less than 5 to 1 odds based on his rare win percentage. I am personally hoping Briscoe and Cindric are listed as parlay options early Sunday which could help from a strategy standpoint. Betting either of those two drivers as single options simply does not provide enough return value.

A few of the targets that I believe yield betting value include Ross Chastain and Harrison Burton. Burton is currently listed in the +900 range and there is a possibility those odds improve. Burton has already won twice this season and continues to impress each week. Perhaps due to his youth and unestablished track record, it’s hard to predict how the rookie will perform week to week. However, I am expecting solid results this week from Burton. He is a former ARCA winner at Pocono and ran great in the Truck Series race one year ago. This track favors raw speed and we know the #20 team has plenty of speed.

For Ross Chastain, I am hoping his odds get slightly better but nevertheless he is on my radar this week based on prior performances at Pocono. Chastain completely dominated the Truck Series race last year at Pocono leading 56 of 60 laps in route to victory. In the Xfinity Series, Chastain has produced a pair of top 15 finishes despite racing with vastly inferior equipment with former owner Johnny Davis. I have stated before that Kaulig Racing is still not quite where they want to be in terms of raw speed but I think they are close enough that Chastain will find a way to be in the mix on Sunday.

Dark Horses

My favorite dark horses for Sunday’s race include Daniel Hemric and Riley Herbst. Hemric is not the most ideal target given the fact that he has never won in the Xfinity Series but I do believe we are getting a fair price on his odds. Hemric has been running much better in his part-time role with the #8 team which has produced finishes of 2nd at Charlotte and 4th at Atlanta in the last 4 starts. More importantly, Hemric has shown strong trends at Pocono with a 3rd place finish in the 2018 Xfinity race and two strong performances in the Cup Series in 2019 including a career best 7th (traditional ovals) place result in the Gander RV 400 at Pocono.

Meanwhile, Riley Herbst is being completely disrespected in terms of betting odds. The rookie opened at 100 to 1 odds and has fluctuated a bit throughout the week. Granted the #18 team has not been running well in recent weeks and Herbst has likely underachieved to this part in the season. My opinion revolves around the fact that we have been at some extremely tough tracks in recent weeks. Atlanta and Homestead are nightmares for young drivers with unique grooves and high tire wear. Throw in tracks like Bristol and Talladega to complicate matters for the young driver. Still, when I look at raw speed this #18 team is a borderline top 5 car on pure speed which was seen in the runner-up finish at Auto Club Speedway. Obviously Herbst is a long shot but he should not be anywhere in the range of 100 to 1 or even 75 to 1 odds. If you can find a big number on the #18 car, I think you have to put down a small risk play (.25 unit or .5 unit) simply out of principle which is exactly what I chose to do in my early email betting picks this week.

Draftkings Pocono Green 225 Optimal Lineup

2020 Pocono Green 225 Race Picks

*Final*

Noah Gragson +585 (1.5 units)
Ross Chastain +900 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1100 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +7500 (.5 unit) *early play

H2H Match-Ups

Ross Chastain -110 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -120 over Brandon Jones (2 units)