2020 Pocono 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday June 28th, 4:24PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Earlier today, Kevin Harvick ended a 38 race winless streak at Pocono by winning the Pocono Organics 325. Harvick outlasted Denny Hamlin in the closing laps to seal the victory for his 1st career win at the Tricky Triangle and earn his 3rd victory of the season. Tomorrow, the Cup Series returns for an encore performance with the running of the Pocono 350. Due to the fact Cup Series teams will be using the same cars that were utilized on Saturday, many of our observations from Saturday’s Pocono Organics 325 will carry over into Sunday. We take the time to discuss the performances displayed on Saturday and prepare our 2020 Pocono 350 betting race picks for round 2 at the Tricky Triangle!

If you read my preview before Saturday’s Pocono Organics 325, then you should be well aware of the trends and drivers that were previously targeted going into Pocono. I am not going to repeat prior track history and driver performance since that was covered in our prior preview. I am going to keep this preview relatively brief and simply focus towards the observations and anomalies that stood out on Saturday. For starters, Aric Almirola proved just how important track position is at Pocono. We knew track position would be important but perhaps underestimated just to what extent. Almirola drew the pole position and was able to lead a race high 61 of 130 laps to bring home a 3rd place result. Almirola was not on my radar at all going into Saturday based on his prior performance at Pocono but displayed really strong speed throughout the afternoon. Sure, some of the speed was due to track position but the #10 car was also extremely fast throughout the afternoon which was one of the most surprising storylines of the afternoon.

From a performance standpoint, I thought Joe Gibbs Racing cars delivered as expected. Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and Denny Hamlin were really strong throughout Saturday posting 100 plus average ratings in terms of loop data. Christopher Bell, who runs Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, had his best run of the year finishing 4th. If not for the game of track position, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell were the fastest cars on the track during the final green flag run. Despite getting close to Harvick, Hamlin was never able to get a run and was stuck in dirty air which stalled his momentum. Still, the JGR cars were very strong and will likely be the drivers to target on Sunday.

From an observational standpoint, Team Penske cars were really strong throughout the first half of Saturday’s race. Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney were among the frontrunners through the opening stages. Later in the race, Team Penske cars fell behind with pit strategy and were never able to regain their momentum. It also appeared that those cars faded as the race progressed. Meanwhile, Hendrick Motorsports struggled to a certain degree. I don’t know if “struggle” is the correct word. Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman were top 10 cars. Elliott ran into gear shifting issues which ruined his run. Meanwhile, William Byron and Jimmie Johnson never performed to expectations.

Betting Targets

A conservative betting strategy is likely warranted on Sunday due to the fact track position proved to be critically important and the shorter race at Pocono yields numerous pit strategies which can shake up the outcome. As a result, I believe we have to be somewhat conservative going into Sunday in case we get snake bitten by pit strategy. Following Saturday’s race, I think the Joe Gibbs Racing cars deserve the utmost betting consideration going into the Pocono 350. As stated before, Denny Hamlin likely had the best car in the final stages of the Pocono Organics 325 which was not in any way surprising. However, both Kyle Busch and Martin Truex were within striking distance in terms of speed. I believe the #19 team has slowly turned things around after a slow start to the season and will be an underrated betting target. Meanwhile Kyle Busch did not appear to have the “best” car but was still among the frontrunners all afternoon which proves he is among the best drivers at Pocono with 3 wins in the last 6 starts.

I was previously high on the likes of Erik Jones and William Byron in terms of dark horses on Saturday. However, neither driver lived up to the expectations. Granted, both Byron and Jones had top 10 cars at different points in the afternoon. Jones fell victim to an accident with Tyler Reddick and Byron’s extra pit stop never allowed him the opportunity to gain track position to get the finish he deserved. Going into Sunday, Jones will start from the rear after having to go to a backup car which may yield some potential in the form of H2H match-ups. Jones’ chances to hit an outright win may be limited but the #20 team will likely have a good idea of the setup needed to go into the backup car. If we can find Jones against inferior competition, we may be able to take advantage of the poor starting spot to yield some value in H2H match-ups after the forgettable performance on Saturday.

Some of my favorite H2H candidates going into Sunday includes Michael McDowell and Christopher Bell. I would throw Aric Almirola into this group but I have a feeling his stock may be overextended due to Saturday’s performance. If you remember, I called out Michael McDowell in my fantasy outlook ahead of the Pocono Organics 325. McDowell has a strong track record at Pocono due to his prior open wheel experience and he parlayed that skill set into his best finish (8th) of the year. I expect McDowell could again be a top 15 car on Sunday which should be good enough for the match-ups he will be listed in against bottom-tier opponents. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell may be a sharp pick going into Sunday especially if people chalk up Saturday’s performance as an anomaly. Bell’s #95 team was on par with the rest of the JGR Toyotas and the rookie actually passed Kyle Busch in the closing laps to bring home his best Cup Series finish (4th) to date. I expect Bell will be strong again on Sunday granted his ceiling may be a touch lower. Bell has consistently been paired against drivers like Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick at even odds. If that happens again, Bell becomes a sharp H2H candidate.

Pocono 350 Dark Horses

Aric Almirola probably deserves dark horse consideration after his strong performance on Saturday. I remain a touch skeptical. Though the #10 car looked really good, the performance faded during the 2nd half of the afternoon when he did not have clean air. Almirola will start from the 18th position on Sunday and will have to fight to get in position to get that clean air that made the #10 such a big threat. When we talk about dark horses, guys like Ryan Blaney and Chris Buescher will be in excellent positions to take advantage of strong starting spots on Sunday to post an “Aric Almirola” type performance.

I personally believe Blaney, Buescher, and Christopher Bell are in the best positions to exceed expectations again on Sunday. We know Blaney has been strong everywhere this season and the #12 was likely the best of the Team Penske cars throughout 325 miles on Saturday. If they can improve the #12 car slightly, Blaney should be a legitimate threat. Meanwhile, Chris Buescher has always run well at Pocono which happens to be the site of his only Cup Series victory thanks to rain in 2016. Buescher has posted 3 straight top 15 finishes at Pocono and should be a considerable H2H target on Sunday.

2020 Pocono Organics 350 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Pocono 350 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex +900 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +1540 (.75 unit)
Aric Almirola +1980 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +2200 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +4400 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +25000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick/Denny Hamlin +330 wins Pocono Organics 325 (win)
Kyle Busch/Kevin Harvick +235 wins Pocono 350
Risking 1 unit to win: +1340

Ross Chastain +105 over Brett Moffitt (win)
Denny Hamlin +440 wins Pocono 350
Risking 1 unit to win: +1000

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Michael McDowell +125 over Bubba Wallace (3 units)
Chris Buescher +155 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Alex Bowman -130 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)