2020 Pennzoil 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday February 23rd, 3:46PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After a short week following Monday’s rain delayed Daytona 500, the Cup Series returns this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the running of the Pennzoil 400. Even with the journey to the west coast, Mother Nature continues to vex NASCAR’s weekend plans. Earlier today, qualifying for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 was cancelled due to rain which means the starting lineup will be set by the rule book. As a result, Kyle Busch will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag and many of the favorites will be starting at the front of the field because the lineup stems from the final 2019 Cup Series standings. The good news is that teams and drivers were able to participate in two practices on Friday to provide a baseline of expectations. We discuss practice notes and breakdown all of our thoughts with our 2020 Pennzoil 400 race picks!

Las Vegas Motor Speedway has yielded to the top talents in the sport throughout the last several years. In the last 8 races, Brad Keselowski has scored 3 victories, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex have won twice, and Joey Logano earned a victory in last year’s Pennzoil 400. In the last 10 races, 9 wins have come from former Cup Series champions. The only non-champion to win during that stretch was Martin Truex in 2017 who would go on to win the championship later that season. Therefore, Vegas has definitely sided with experience and favored the top drivers in recent years which is something to keep in mind when constructing lineups this weekend.

In terms of race flow, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is usually pretty stable. The racing typically involves cars getting spread out and though tire wear is not excessive; long run speed is still the best recipe for success. In the last 4 races, only once have we experienced more than 4 cautions which includes the stage breaks. If that holds true again, the cars that can maintain speed throughout green flag runs will be guys competing for a victory at the end of 400 miles. Lap times do not have sharp fall off with only a couple of tenths falling off over the course of 20-30 laps. However, the setups and drivers that can keep every ounce of speed in the car throughout the course of the run are going to be tough to beat. This style of racing has typically favored guys like Martin Truex and Brad Keselowski who normally are long-run style drivers. Obviously the million dollar question is who has the setup and talent to get the job done on Sunday?

Pennzoil 400 Practice Notes

In practices on Friday, there was a wide array of topics to discuss. Jimmie Johnson topped the charts in final practice and actually looked really solid throughout both sessions. I spent most of the season fading Johnson in 2019 which proved to be very profitable. Following Friday’s sessions, I will put the fade on the #48 on pause at least for this week. Alongside Johnson, I was impressed with the speed from the majority of the Hendrick Motorsports cars especially Alex Bowman. We know the Chevrolets have struggled significantly over the last 2 years. However, the Chevrolets should get some help this year with the new nose on the 2020 Camaro which is expected to improve the aerodynamics on the cars. I would be still skeptical to place any of the Chevrolets in the “favorite” category ahead of Sunday’s race but early signs are pointing towards improved raw speed so I am eager to see how things unfold in race trim.

If I had to list an overall favorite for Sunday, I would probably put Kevin Harvick on top of all names. Harvick made a lot of gains in Happy Hour and appeared to be the fastest car when the dust settled. However, there are a lot of other guys worthy of consideration. Teammate Aric Almirola showed really solid speed throughout both sessions. Almirola does not really fall into the category of an elite talent nor has he shown the success at Vegas in the past to warrant underdog potential. However, the #10 still had an impressive pair of practices which elevates his status in the realm of H2H match-ups and fantasy lineups.

A few others drivers that also impressed involved the likes of Clint Bowyer, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Larson. I already mentioned Bowyer’s teammates and it is clear the Stewart-Haas Fords have some serious speed. Ross Chastain may have been the bigger surprise. Chastain is filling in for Ryan Newman in the #6 car for Roush-Fenway Racing. Everyone knows Chastain is a talented driver but this Sunday’s race is the perfect opportunity for Chastain to prove he is deserving of a quality ride. Look for him to get everything out of the #6 car and his practice times were really solid. Lastly if the Chevrolets indeed find more raw speed, Larson should be one of the bigger benefactors. Larson’s lap times looked really solid on the long run and the driver of the #42 car has posted 3 top 5 finishes in his last 5 starts in Vegas including a pair of runner-up finishes. If you are wondering about the Toyotas or the Team Penske drivers, let me simply discuss my observations.

For starters, none of the Toyotas looked that impressive. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell were penalized at the start of the weekend for improper adjustments to the noses on their cars. Hamlin was possibly the best of the JGR alliance but none of those guys showed “great” speed. For Team Penske, all of the drivers have a strong Vegas resume. Ryan Blaney appeared to be best of the 3 teammates in practices though the speed was not overwhelming. However, I have learned that the Team Penske cars always race better than they practice which means we cannot exclude any of those drivers from Sunday’s consideration based upon their strong performance history in Sin City.

2020 Pennzoil 400 Draftkings Predictions

2020 Pennzoil 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +1100 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +2200 (.5 unit)
Ryan Blaney +2400 (.5 unit) *early play
Clint Bowyer +3100 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick +345 wins Pennzoil 400
Cole Custer +115 over Chris Buescher
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1070

H2H and Props

Joey Logano -130 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Ty Dillon -130 over Ryan Preece (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +240 wins Group C (Erik Jones, Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch)(1 unit) *early play