2020 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 4th, 2020 3:00PM EST at Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series will make history on Saturday with the first NASCAR sanctioned event on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course with the running of the Pennzoil 150. The Xfinity Series will actually be the 2nd leg of an Independence Day double header as the NTT IndyCar Series will host the GMR Grand Prix at 12:00PM (EST). Earlier today, Xfinity Series teams participated in two practice sessions marking the first official practices since racing resumed from COVID-19 nearly two months ago. With practices in the books, I feel confident in breaking down expectations for the new road course. Take a look as we kick off Independence Day with a bang with our 2020 Pennzoil 150 race picks!

Despite two practices on Friday, the favorites remain unchanged going into Saturday’s Pennzoil 150. AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric have clearly separated themselves from the competition which was not exactly surprising considering they are the two best road course talents in the field. I actually broke down the entire layout of this new Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course earlier this week and specifically called out AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric as the favorites before odds were released. If we learned anything from practices on Friday, it was that Cindric and Allmendinger are emphatically the drivers to beat going into the Pennzoil 150 with lap times nearly a half a second better than the competition on average.

Despite Allmendinger and Cindric’s heavy favorite status going into Saturday, this race remains very intriguing from a betting standpoint. I am hoping for numerous match-up options as there are plenty of drivers to target and fade in the realm of H2H match-ups. However even outside the realm of H2H match-ups, this race is not guaranteed to be decided between the favorites. One aspect that nobody is mentioning is the “strategy” factor. According to my calculations, this 62 lap race can be a 1-stop race in terms of the fuel window since we will get several caution laps for the stage breaks. To make it a one stop race, teams will have to pit before the end of stage 2. Clearly we will have “takers” on pit road at the end of the stages and likely before the stage ends as teams attempt to optimize their pit strategy between fuel and tires which will also be important. With so many different strategies in-play, anything can happen especially when you consider that cautions can change any strategy mid-race. Therefore from a betting standpoint, we still should have a few dark horses in our line-up for a potential big win and we have done a pretty good job with our early bets this week to nail some potential upset candidates.

Drivers to Target

Obviously, Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger are the guys to beat. I think that is a given at this point. I slightly favor Cindric though the lap times between both drivers were really close in practice. It’s hard to pick a favorite between the two but I favor Cindric just slightly. Luckily if the two favorites have trouble or if strategy affects the outcome, there are some other drivers to target both as long shots and as H2H targets. The 3rd best driver/car is undoubtedly Justin Allgaier who I grabbed at openers this week at +800. Allgaier has been an excellent road course driver during his career and he showed solid speed in both of Friday’s practices. If you did not jump on Allgaier early, I would be very surprised if you see better odds for the #7 car on Saturday.

In terms of dark horses and additional H2H targets, I really like both Justin Haley and Jeremy Clements as undervalued drivers ahead of the Pennzoil 150. Clements was another one of my early betting picks this week at 55 to 1 odds and I am ecstatic with that number. Clements has always been solid at the road course races and looked really solid in Friday’s practices. Clements was a border-line top 5 car in practices and will likely provide some really sharp H2H value. Meanwhile, Justin Haley’s chances to score an upset may be even better than Clements. Haley was top 5 in both practices which is a touch surprising considering Haley is not a decorated road course driver. However if you have read enough of my previews this year then you know I am a huge advocate of Haley’s driving talent. With driver input far outweighing car setup and raw speed this week, Haley appears to be another sharp betting option.

*Though I am not suggesting bets on these drivers. It is worth mentioning that Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain, Harrison Burton, were all solid in practices and I would rank them in that order. If we are targeting any of the drivers above in H2H match-ups, we will try to avoid match-ups against the #98, #10, and #20 teams if possible.

Drivers to Fade

I would recommend fading Ryan Sieg at all cost on Saturday. Sieg was all over the track in the opening practice on Friday and struggled again in final practice. Road course racing simply is not Sieg’s strongpoint and he can be aggressively faded in all H2H match-ups. Another pair of drivers that may be worth fading include Jeb Burton and Myatt Snider. I actually took a ¼ size play on Snider at openers due to his road course background but that appears to be dead money. Snider looked pretty awful in practices. Snider is not in the #21 this week which is obviously a setback but I expected the #93 to be much better.

If you consider the problems teammate Ryan Sieg had as well, this may be more of an equipment/car issue than driver issue. Between Jeb Burton and Brandon Jones, I cannot decide who deserves the most fade consideration. Granted, Brandon Jones has never been good at road course racing and I believe everyone already knows that. I think Jeb Burton may be the bigger “fade” candidate because more was expected from him in this part-time start with J.R. Motorsports. Despite following Justin Allgaier at different portions of both practices, Burton never really posted any lap times to show any real competitiveness. As a result, I recommend fading Burton in match-ups as the sharper fade.

Fantasy Racing Targets

Despite favoring Cindric in terms of betting, AJ Allmendinger should be everyone’s fantasy anchor on Saturday primarily because the Dinger will be starting from the 30th position providing a higher ceiling than Cindric. Personally, I believe Cindric and Allmendinger are manageable on the same roster this week because we can find value enough plays deeper into the field. If you choose a more top-heavy line-up, guys like Justin Haley ($9,200), Alex Labbe ($8,900), and Jeremy Clements ($8,400) are strong pivots compared to the top-tier ranked drivers.

For the big value plays, I really like Josh Bilicki from the 36th starting position. The official entry list previously listed Stefan Parsons in the #99 this week but Bilicki is the driver filling into the role. Bilicki built his reputation on the road courses and has some serious upside if the equipment holds up on Saturday. At just $6,300 from the 36th position, Bilicki is one of the best value options on the board. If you need an even cheaper option, consider Bayley Currey. Currey looked pretty decent in practice and will be starting in the rear like Bilicki. At just $5,500, Bayley Currey is a driver to consider as well for a deep flier.

Draftkings Pennzoil 150 Optimal Lineup

2020 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks

*Final*

A.J. Allmendinger +300 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +800 (1 unit) *early play
Justin Haley +2500 (.5 unit)
Jeremy Clements +5500 (.25 unit) *early play
Myatt Snider +22000 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Harrison Burton +155 over Noah Gragson
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Harrison Burton -115 over Brandon Jones (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -140 over Noah Gragson (2 units)
Anthony Alfredo -145 over Ryan Sieg (2 units)