2020 OReilly Auto Parts 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday July 19th, 3:15PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Wednesday night, Chase Elliott made history by winning the first ever All-Star Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. In some ways, the All-Star event failed to produce the fireworks many had expected at the world’s most infamous short track. However, NASCAR’s Cup Series has another quick turnaround as anticipation ramps up for Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at the fastest 1.5 mile venue on the schedule by way of Texas Motor Speedway. Just a week ago, Cole Custer scored one of the biggest underdog victories in NASCAR history at 300 to 1 odds. Will another big underdog have a chance at victory on Sunday? Find out the best betting options and take a look at our 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race picks!

For an underdog to strike again this week, drivers and teams will have to find a way to beat Kevin Harvick. Harvick has been phenomenal at Texas in recent years winning 3 of the last 5 races. Harvick has posted a lucrative 126.1 driver rating and led over 25% of the laps over the last 5 races. Statistically, those numbers are not far off from Harvick’s infamous stretch at Phoenix where he won 6 out of 8 races from 2012-2016. Obviously Texas and Phoenix are extremely different from a driver standpoint. While Phoenix has more bias to driver input, the main ingredient to success at Texas is “speed.” While Harvick deserves credit, he has had the luxury of having one of the fastest cars in the Cup Series for the last few years which has produced 4 victories already in 2020.

If you consider the speed that Stewart-Haas Racing cars have shown thus far, Harvick should again be the toughest guy to beat in the field. Speaking of Stewart-Haas Racing, let’s not overlook all of the drivers from SHR this week. Even in last week’s huge upset victory at Kentucky, another track known for aerodynamic speed and high grip, the recipient of that victory was Harvick’s teammate Cole Custer with SHR power under the hood. When it comes to momentum and performance, Stewart-Haas Racing currently sits #1 in the Cup Series followed closely by the Team Penske cars (Fords) on the 1.5 mile tracks. As long as nothing changes, those should be the drivers that are given the most betting consideration going into this weekend’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	126.1	6.4	7.8	2.6	6.2	56	245	296	421	1673
Kyle Busch	105.0	10.2	13.0	10.8	11.8	14	208	182	207	1672
Joey Logano	103.0	14.0	10.0	7.4	8.2	67	234	35	68	1672
Ryan Blaney	103.0	8.2	7.2	11.6	10.0	8	245	77	85	1564
Kurt Busch	102.7	8.6	9.0	8.2	8.2	-15	269	101	41	1673
Erik Jones	101.4	10.0	8.4	6.4	8.8	31	248	56	103	1673
Martin Truex Jr	93.3	12.6	16.6	13.2	13.6	21	199	86	117	1419
Aric Almirola	92.0	12.2	8.8	12.8	12.6	10	201	69	65	1517
Denny Hamlin	87.7	4.4	15.0	19.2	18.0	-37	154	72	122	1504
William Byron	85.8	15.5	11.3	12.3	12.3	18	175	23	24	1338
Chase Elliott	83.7	17.4	14.0	14.0	14.6	19	210	49	40	1650
Daniel Suarez	82.9	10.0	15.4	15.4	16.6	-7	186	52	34	1624
Clint Bowyer	79.3	14.8	13.8	16.8	16.6	1	195	47	39	1639
Jimmie Johnson	78.8	13.0	17.8	23.2	19.4	0	160	31	111	1376
Austin Dillon	76.9	16.8	16.8	15.2	14.8	14	246	9	6	1643
Brad Keselowski	76.7	9.2	20.6	25.0	22.4	33	128	35	50	1180
Alex Bowman	72.0	15.8	18.8	16.3	18.8	8	123	32	14	1298
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	70.2	16.2	17.6	20.8	18.0	-7	195	6	10	1371
Ryan Newman	66.8	21.4	17.0	18.2	17.0	-10	160	0	1	1638
Chris Buescher	62.5	20.8	19.6	19.8	18.4	-3	127	5	0	1665
Bubba Wallace	62.3	19.3	22.0	20.0	20.3	-22	58	1	2	1332
Michael McDowell	60.3	24.2	23.2	20.8	22.2	-22	86	2	4	1659
Ty Dillon	58.7	20.4	20.8	19.6	21.6	-22	73	7	0	1664
Ryan Preece	57.0	27.5	20.5	22.5	21.0	16	50	2	0	663
Matt DiBenedetto	54.1	25.0	24.2	23.8	23.2	-4	68	0	0	1626
Ross Chastain	39.9	33.5	31.3	27.5	30.5	32	6	1	0	1299
Corey LaJoie	33.7	35.0	35.3	36.3	35.3	-20	0	3	0	893

Outside of Harvick’s incredible run in recent races, we actually have 5 additional drivers that have posted average ratings above the century mark in Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, and Erik Jones. Similar to last week’s notes related to lap data, I favor momentum shown in the form of raw speed more so than loop data stats at the high-grip 1.5 mile venues like Kentuck and Texas. With that being said, I’m not sure we have seen enough from Kyle Busch and Erik Jones in recent weeks to keep them in the elite group of targets this week.

Perhaps Martin Truex deserves some betting consideration for the first time in several weeks. Truex and the #19 team were excellent at Kentucky which was somewhat surprising considering how they have performed for the majority of 2020. Either way Truex definitely seems to be trending in the right direction, I’m just not a big fan of his betting odds which are the 3rd lowest in the field. In terms of loop data anomalies, Aric Almirola has performed exceptionally well compared to his norm at Texas. Almirola actually led 62 laps en route to a 2nd place finish at Texas last November under the same rules package. Given the momentum of the #10 team in recent weeks, this could be the perfect place for Almirola to have a legitimate shot at victory.

One other important call out in terms of loop data is the lack of success Brad Keselowski has displayed at Texas. In the last 6 races, Keselowski has averaged a 21.83 finishing position at Atlanta which does not even crack the top 25 among competitors during that time frame. Keselowski has been close to winning at Texas on a couple of occasions including a pair of runner-up finishes. However, Bad Brad has finished outside the top 10 in 15 of his 23 starts (65%) at Texas which is downright shocking for one of the best drivers in the Cup Series.

Track History

I don’t necessarily believe track history is a strong handicapping angle this week but there are some important facts that are still noteworthy. For starters, Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 7 career victories at Texas Motor Speedway with the most recent victory in the spring of 2017. Outside of Harvick’s recent hot streak, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are all tied with Harvick with 3 career victories at Texas. Hamlin won both 2010 races and won the spring race last year. Meanwhile, Busch’s most recent victory at Texas came in the spring of 2018.

The only other multiple Texas winner in the field is the aging Matt Kenseth who last won in the Lonestar State in 2011. From a historical narrative, it is also worth noting that we have seen very few upset winners at Texas. Johnson, Harvick, Busch, and Hamlin have won 13 of the last 15 races at Texas. Both Carl Edwards and Joey Logano scored victories during that stretch. Still when you look at the history of Texas, the race winners have nearly always come from championship competitors. I find that fact somewhat surprising in the age of stage racing at a venue where track position can have extreme value. Nevertheless, the cream of the Cup Series continue to yield wins each year at Texas Motor Speedway.

Drivers to Target

The reason the top drivers typically emerge at Texas is because this track heavily favors raw speed. So it’s not too surprising to see the top cars emerging in this race year after year. For this Sunday’s race, I really believe the Stewart-Haas Racing will be tough to beat. Kevin Harvick is the obvious choice but I really like Aric Almirola in all formats. Almirola was listed at 22 to 1 odds at openers and he should be an excellent H2H target if the #10 team can continue to show the speed we have witnessed in recent weeks.

I know the Team Penske Fords have shown some of the speed qualities we would like to see in our betting targets but they have also had a rough time keeping that speed over the course of an entire race. As a result, I am not very big on either Joey Logano or Brad Keselowski this week. Ryan Blaney has still shown enough speed to be targeted but his odds are not nearly as ideal as they should be. Therefore, I really believe the sharp target this week is Chase Elliott. Elliott was excellent at Charlotte which is the sister track of Texas. Elliott finished runner-up in the Coca Cola 600 and won the Alsco Uniforms 500. Most importantly, Elliott’s strength has come on the 1.5 mile venues this year and Texas is the style of track where he can flex his muscles for the 2nd time this week.

In terms of H2H match-ups, Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch are drivers that everyone should target this week to yield sharp value. I mentioned the reasons above that Almirola is poised for a quality performance and I believe his match-up value could be even better. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch is a name that nobody is discussing coming into Texas but his stats throughout the 2020 season on intermediate tracks is extremely strong. The elder Busch has posted finishes of 7th and 5th at Charlotte, 6th at Atlanta, and 5th most recently last week at Kentucky. All of those tracks have similarities in some form or capacity to Texas yet from an odds standpoint; Kurt Busch is being slightly disrespected. Therefore, I will be looking to use that disrespect as value in the form of match-ups.

Drivers to Fade

I mentioned above that Brad Keselowski’s stats at Texas have been downright atrocious for a top tier driver with finishes outside the top 10 in 15 of 23 career starts. As a result, I definitely believe Keselowski has fade value this week but the driver I am more keen towards fading is the #18 of Kyle Busch. I have mentioned several times in recent weeks that this #18 team just simply is not producing speed that fits the expectations of a championship caliber team. Even in Wednesday’s All-Star Race at Busch’s best track at a venue they visited in May, the team missed the setup completely at the beginning of the race. Busch was able to make some ground in the closing stages likely due to his talent behind the wheel. For Sunday, I think this setup is a big disadvantage for the #18 team at Texas where you have to nail the balance and get all of the speed out of the racecar. Since Busch is always paired against the top targets each week, I believe this is the perfect fade opportunity where equipment far outweighs driver input.

2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Kevin Harvick +300 (1 unit)(cover play)
Chase Elliott +1000 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1250 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +2200 (1 unit) *early play
Kurt Busch +2500 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +5000 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Kyle Busch -140 wins My Bariatric Solutions 300 (graded win by 5Dimes rules)
Ryan Blaney +730 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +1322

Kyle Busch -140 wins Vankor 350
Martin Truex Jr/Denny Hamlin +440 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +835

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -120 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Aric Almirola -120 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Chase Elliott -110 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Aric Almirola +300 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Clint Bowyer +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)