2020 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Tuesday May 26th, 8:15PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the first time in 3 months, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will get back to racing when the green flag waves Tuesday night for the running of the NC Education Lottery 200 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. As the Truck Series gets back to racing, we will have the luxury of witnessing Cup Series stars Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch compete on Tuesday night as they suit up for 200 miles of Truck Series competition. Busch won earlier tonight in the Alsco 300 in the Xfinity Series at Charlotte and will be going for his 2nd straight victory as a heavy betting favorite yet again. Find out which drivers we like for Tuesday’s Truck Series event as we provide our 2020 NC Education Lottery 200 race picks!

Unlike Cup and Xfinity Series teams, the Truck Series held just two races before the series schedule was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When NASCAR’s schedule was suspended due to COVID-19, Cup and Xfinity Series teams had participated in 4-5 races which allowed us to establish a performance baseline for bettors. The Truck Series held just two races prior to the break and that includes the opening race at Daytona which is a completely different style of racing. After Daytona, Kyle Busch won the 2nd Truck Series event at Las Vegas and perhaps that Las Vegas race provides our only comparable event thus far in 2020 ahead of tomorrow night’s NC Education Lottery 200.

In the Strat 200 at Las Vegas, I was personally impressed with the speed from the Thorsport Racing trucks. I pointed out the speed from the Thorsport Racing trucks in practices at Las Vegas and they delivered strong results in the race by taking 3 of the top 5 finishing positions. Johnny Sauter was the only truck that came close to Kyle Busch in that race. Meanwhile, Matt Crafton and Ben Rhodes were able to produce top 5 finishes. I know we don’t have a lot of betting data to consider going into this event, at least in terms of 2020. However, I do think we can expect to see speed again from those Thorsport Racing trucks because the entire organization was fast at the opening 1.5 mile race back at Vegas.

Of course, our expectations are limited with just 1 traditional oval race under our belt this season. However, the Thorsport Racing trucks may provide the best odds options to upset Busch if something happens to the #51 truck. I know a lot of people will see Chase Elliott’s name on the entry list and assume he will be a top contender Tuesday night. However, I’m not sure if I buy that philosophy. Elliott has not raced in a Truck Series event in 3 years. Furthermore, Elliott has never been a dominant Truck Series driver in his limited experience in the series. Elliott’s two career victories come at Martinsville and Canadian Tire Motorsports Park. While I’m sure Elliott’s talent will find a way to keep him competitive, I would not bet on Elliott to win at the 5 to 1 odds he is currently receiving.

Drivers to Target

Obviously, Kyle Busch stands alone as the top threat to win Tuesday night by a wide margin. In the last two Xfinity Series events at Darlington and Charlotte, I have faded the heavy favorite Busch with drivers receiving extremely generous odds. That strategy cashed a winning ticket with Chase Briscoe at Darlington and nearly cashed again tonight with Austin Cindric. With some of the Truck Series regulars receiving generous odds, the option to fade Busch for a potential nice payout is definitely in-play again. However, I think the odds of upsetting Busch are even less in tomorrow night’s event. Remember, the Truck Series is a step down in terms of competition from the Xfinity Series and furthermore Busch just excels behind the wheel of these trucks. At Las Vegas, Busch led 108 of 134 laps in complete dominating fashion in route to the victory while also posting 69 fastest laps throughout the race. Therefore, I don’t think the odds of beating Busch tomorrow night are very good unless he gets into some type of trouble.

As a result, I am not confident leaving Busch off my betting car for the NC Education Lottery 200. Busch is a heavy favorite meaning we have a high risk/low reward potential if he secures the victory which is also not ideal. Therefore, I will be using Busch as a cover option for Tuesday which means I will have just enough risk on Rowdy to cover my other risk. Therefore if Busch does win, we profit enough to cover our expenses for the evening. The hope is that Busch runs into trouble and we can capitalize with the generous odds being offered towards a few dark horses in the field.

If you are looking for a few of those potential dark horse options, Johnny Sauter (+1400), Christian Eckes (+2200), and Ben Rhodes (+1000) are solid intermediate options with winning potential. The case could also be made for guys like Brett Moffitt (+1400) and Austin Hill (+2000) who have repeatedly shown their potential to run upfront in this series. If things get really crazy like they did in tonight’s Xfinity Series races, a few hail mary options include guys like Zane Smith and Todd Gilliland who are both listed at better than 100-1 odds. I believe Smith has some upside potential and is likely going to get better as the season progresses. For Gilliland, he lost his quality ride at Kyle Busch Motorsports this year but he did finish 7th with Front Row Motorsports back at Vegas and ran up front throughout the race. The young driver still has a lot to prove and perhaps that drives him to another quality finish this Tuesday.

Fantasy Targets

From a fantasy standpoint, we have some intriguing options in courtesy to the starting lineup. The starting grid for Tuesday night’s event was a random draw format based around owner’s points. As a result, we got some interesting names scattered throughout the field. Though I am skeptical of their chances for the outright win, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain both have fantasy potential from the 26th and 27th starting spots. Chastain was very good in the Xfinity Series race tonight and is the only driver outside of Kyle Busch to run all 900 miles this week in both races. With Charlotte’s traction compound still confusing some drivers, Chastain will have an early advantage with so many laps under his belt this week.

Additional drivers starting towards the rear that will provide potential fantasy options include the likes of Zane Smith and John Hunter Nemechek. I mentioned my positive thoughts towards Smith’s talents earlier. Meanwhile, John Hunter will step back into the #8 NEMCO Motorsports machine for his 1st start of the season. John Hunter has always been a good Truck Series driver but I am unsure of what we can expect from the #8 truck from an equipment standpoint. The #8 team lost a lot of their competitiveness last year when John Hunter made the move to the Xfinity Series and I am not sure how competitive this team can be. I like the driver in the #8 but I am just skeptical towards the truck until I can see it perform on the track.

Ultimately when you set your fantasy lineups, I would try to have Kyle Busch if you can afford him. In the Xfinity Series event, Busch was nearly unmanageable at a $17,000 price tag and will again be an expensive bargain on Tuesday at $15,000. I will have Busch in my optimal lineup because I believe we have enough value options starting in the rear to give us a solid lineup tonight. One of my favorite 2nd level drivers for tonight’s event is the #18 of Christian Eckes. Eckes has the potential and the equipment to be the breakout driver in the series this year and I think he has enormous fantasy value at just $7,300 this week. Therefore, both Busch and Eckes are my anchors for Tuesday night’s race.

2020 NC Education Lottery 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 NC Education Lottery 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch -150 (2 units)
Johnny Sauter +1400 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +2200 (.75 unit)
Austin Hill +2000 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +11000 (.25 unit)

H2H Matchups

Christian Eckes -115 over Stewart Friesen (3 units)