2020 My Bariatric Solutions 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 18th, 3:30PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

All of NASCAR’s touring series will be visiting Texas Motor Speedway this weekend and the Xfinity Series will have the luxury of kicking off the action Saturday with the running of the My Bariatrics Solution 300. The Xfinity Series will be the opening act of a double header with the Truck Series on Saturday in what promises to be an exciting afternoon of racing. Several drivers will be performing in both of Saturday’s events including popular names like Brett Moffitt, Justin Haley, Ross Chastain, and superstar Kyle Busch who will be the heavy betting favorite in both events.

Last week, Austin Cindric scored two victories in back to back nights at Kentucky Speedway. The wins were the first for Cindric on the season and actually marked his first victories in any NASCAR series on traditional ovals. Despite the pair of victories, Cindric’s march to victory lane was not very surprising because the #22 team has shown tremendous speed throughout the year especially on 1.5 mile surfaces. Team Penske actually seems to have the edge in the Cup Series on 1.5 mile venues and perhaps there is some correlation in their Xfinity Series program. Either way, Cindric remains a contender this week at another 1.5 mile venue where aerodynamic speed shines just as it did last week at Kentucky.

Both Kentucky and Texas share some similarities in terms of grip and surface structure. The biggest difference between both 1.5 mile tracks is the layout, specifically the banking. Where Kentucky is relatively flat at just 14-17 degrees in the turns, the banking at Texas is steeper at 20-24 degrees at both ends of the track. The combination of steep banking and sufficient grip produce the fastest speeds of any 1.5 mile track at over 190mph average speed. Similar to last week at Kentucky, aerodynamic speed and throttle time are extremely important to maintain fast laps at Kentucky. However from a setup standpoint, the chassis and balance will be most closely aligned with what teams ran at Charlotte several weeks ago. In that race, Kyle Busch in relatively dominating fashion by leading 94 of 203 laps in route to a victory in the Alsco 300.

Betting Strategy

Despite the fact Kyle Busch is the heavy favorite in both of Saturday’s races, my betting strategy for both races are significantly different. I actually believe Busch has the bigger advantage in the Xfinity Series cars from a driver standpoint. In the Truck Series race, some of the key competitors have extremely valuable odds that raises the value in fading Busch to seek a big payout. For the My Bariatric Solutions 300, that is not the case from a betting standpoint. Both Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric are less than 7 to 1 odds which is less than favorable. Meanwhile, some of the intermediate betting targets like Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson, and Harrison Burton simply have not shown enough prowess on 1.5 mile surfaces to warrant their odds.

As a result, I will lower my overall risk for this race compared to normal events. I am going to take 1-2 small risk plays on a couple of dark horses but my overall betting strategy will remain conservative as it relates to overall risk. The Xfinity Series has not produced any big time winners this season from a betting odds standpoint and I don’t think this will be the week that trend changes. As a result, we need to marginalize our risk and make sure we are yielding value with each bet. For the heavy favorite Busch, he will be placed in a parlay this week since it is being offered at 5Dimes. Having the option to parlay the winner this week, helps the conservative betting strategy and still gives us options going into Sunday to yield value for the Cup race if it hits.

Drivers to Target

Outside of Busch, Austin Cindric should once again be considered a top betting target. I mentioned prior to last week’s races at Kentucky that the #22 has shown the best raw speed this season and they were even better than expected at Kentucky. Cindric’s speed was phenomenal and if the team can find the correct balance with the setup this week; a repeat performance is not out of the question. Cindric finished 3rd at Charlotte, which is the most similar venue to Texas, and led 30 laps back in May’s Alsco 300. If something happens to Kyle Busch, Cindric has a great opportunity to score the Hat Trick.

For win options, the betting value for Riley Herbst is phenomenal. Herbst finished 2nd in the opening Kentucky race last week which was his 2nd runner-up finish this season. I was really impressed by all the JGR cars’ speed last week despite the fact Brandon Jones and Harrison Burton got into trouble in both races. Still at 88 to 1 odds, Herbst provides huge lottery potential in a car that has proven to be fast despite the lack of experience. Other value options include Ross Chastain and Justin Allgaier. I know Allgaier has been struck by a string of bad luck this season but the #7 team is quietly starting to show really good speed. For Chastain, I don’t necessarily like the aerodynamic speed from Kaulig Racing but Chastain continues to impress with each race. Chastain has finished 6th or better in the last 6 straight races including two top 5 finishes at Kentucky. Despite the raw speed disadvantage, Chastain has over achieved and his driving style favors Texas Motor Speedway for the opportunity at another quality run.

H2H Match-Ups

In terms of H2H match-ups, I don’t have many targets and fades this week. After reviewing current match-ups for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, I don’t see a ton of value in terms of H2H match-ups. I am hoping that will change as we get closer to race time. Typically sportsbooks open up more H2H offerings on race day. If that happens, I will likely look to fade Justin Haley again this week. I mentioned last week that Haley’s team simply does not have the raw speed. Haley pulled out a couple of decent finishes thanks to the problems from his competitors last week but he even stated on the radio “We simply don’t have the speed of the guys we are racing with.” I believe that factor will be evident again at Texas so I will look to fade the #11 again this week since he continues to be paired against the faster teams.

Also, Anthony Alfredo was one of the biggest surprises last week at Kentucky. I mentioned that the #21 car has shown speed but I was not nearly as confident in Alfredo’s ability behind the wheel mainly because of the limited experience. I have definitely changed my stance behind Alfredo’s ability behind the wheel following two very impressive performances at Kentucky. Alfredo has now finished 6th in the last 3 out of 4 races. In fact, Alfredo has only finished outside the top 15 once all year with numerous strong performances including a 4th place result at Homestead which is among the most demanding driver tracks on the schedule. Given the fact Alfredo is paired against mediocre talents, Alfredo may be one of the few guys to provide some H2H value this week!

Fantasy Targets

If you can find a way to roster Kyle Busch in fantasy this week, he has a high likelihood of producing the most single driver points at Texas thanks to a 28th place starting position. The problem with that logic is that Rowdy is listed at $17,000 on Draftkings which is even higher than his price in Saturday night’s Truck Series race. As a result, I need more consistency across my entire lineup this week because there is just not enough promising flier/value options.

Since I will be pivoting against Busch, my anchor positions revolve around Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe who have been the best full-time drivers in the Xfinity Series this season. I really like the potential of Cindric starting on the 2nd row because he could get out into the lead early. I also have a sneaky feeling that Justin Allgaier could put everything together this week. The #7 team has shown speed but just run into every problem imaginable.

When you look through the field, Riley Herbst and Justin Haley are value plays in the mid $8,000 range with similar upside. For deeper value options, I really love Jesse Little at just $5,200. Little has been doing a great job in the #4 car this season with top 15 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races. If he can just stay on that trend line, he is definitely a solid option for the cheap price.

Another value option is Little’s JD Motorsports teammate Colby Howard. Howard does not have a ton of experience but his starting position (35th) really helps his fantasy value this week. After posting several top 20 finishes in the last few weeks, Howard could be another option for salary relief!

2020 My Bariatric Solutions 300 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 My Bariatric Solutions 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +650 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1540 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1540 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +8800 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -140 wins My Bariatric Solutions 300
Team 2 -Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Anthony Alfredo -110 over Michael Annett (2 units)
Riley Herbst -110 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Justin Allgaier -125 over Brandon Jones (2 units)