2020 LS Tractor 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday March 7th, 4:15PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Xfinity Series action heats up on Saturday with the running of the LS Tractor 200 at Phoenix Raceway. After witnessing 2 of 3 first time winners in the Xfinity Series through the opening races of 2020, a pair of veterans will join the fray to provide an immediate uptick in talent. Both Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch will make their 1st start of the season in the Xfinity Series. As most are aware, the two Cup Series veterans have extensive Xfinity Series backgrounds that collectively tally 135 victories between the two stars. Considering the current state of the Xfinity Series that is filled with fruitful young talent, both Keselowski and Busch will be heavily favored to bring home another checkered flag. We discuss the drivers that have the best opportunity to knock off the favorites and how we can still profit if one of the Cup Series veterans pulls out the victory. Take a look at our 2020 LS Tractor 200 race picks for Phoenix!

Busch is the all-time wins leader in the Xfinity Series with an amazing record of 96 victories. The 96 victories is nearly double the total of Mark Martin (49) who is ranked 2nd in all-time Xfinity Series victories. If that is not impressive enough, consider the fact Busch has posted 11 victories in the Xfinity Series at Phoenix Raceway. The 11 wins Rowdy has amassed at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series is the most all-time among all drivers and it is also the most wins Rowdy has amassed at a single venue in any of NASCAR’s touring series. Needless to say, Busch has every reason to be a huge favorite on Saturday especially after posting the fastest lap in Happy Hour with a speed of 129.510mph.

I know a lot of racing fans hate to see Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski participating in these lower series races. I personally like seeing the veterans mix it up with the younger guys from a spectator standpoint because it gives everyone an idea of how some of the Xfinity Series regulars stack up against the top talents in the sport. From a betting standpoint, I hate when Kyle Busch participates in lower series races because he is usually such a big favorite that he is nearly impossible to bet. Busch is going to be near even money or perhaps an even bigger favorite if he wins the pole in qualifying this afternoon. As a result, it is hard to bet on Busch unless you are going to place additional risk (units) down on the table. Though Busch is incredible in these lower series races, I still hate to overpay for him when a number of things can happen to keep a driver out of victory lane.

Even if you pivot against Busch by taking Keselowski, the odds are still pretty bad. Keselowski was a 2-1 favorite behind Busch at openers this week and that number could be lower with a strong qualifying effort later today. The problem with taking Keselowki or Busch in a singles style bet is that you are simply not getting enough return on your investment, Instead, I prefer using this opportunity to counter heavy favorites by initiating open parlays. If you have followed my plays in the past, then you know I am a big believer of race parlays and they usually provide strong upside when you are trying to carry over value from the Xfinity/Truck Series races when dealing with extremely heavy favorites. If Busch is offered as a parlay option (close to race time), I will almost certainly have the #54 in an open parlay and look to close that parlay with Sunday’s Fan Shield 500 if it wins. This particular option is not always the “fun” strategy because it is conservative in terms of risk. However the goal is to be smart and grind out profits!

LS Tractor 200 Practice Notes

Keep in mind just because Keselowski and Busch’s talent far exceeds the average other top competitors participating Saturday, nothing is guaranteed in racing and there are drivers capable of pulling off the upset in the right situation. In both practices, I believe Justin Allgaier is the most likely Xfinity Series regular to pull off the upset if it happens. Allgaier is a two-time winner at Phoenix and looked really solid on the stopwatch in both practices. Allgaier’s lap times were very close to the #54 on the long run and actually a touch better than Busch during the first few laps. I sent out a few early plays to our subscribers this week and Allgaier was one of those plays at over 13-1 odds which is excellent value. If you missed out on the early plays, Allgaier should still be considered because he looks to have a very solid car for Saturday’s 200 mile event.

Aside from Allgaier, my confidence in a potential upset candidate drops off pretty significantly. Ross Chastain was really strong in the opening practice and has an opportunity to make some noise at a venue that typically favors better driving over better car/equipment. However, I have not seen anything from the #10 team through the first 3 races that would indicate they are close to winning a race. If I combine current form with practice observations, I would expect Harrison Burton and Austin CIndric to have strong runs. If Keselowski and Busch were not on the entry list this week, I believe Burton would have an excellent shot to go back to back after winning his first race last week at Auto Club Speedway. The #20 team performed extremely well at Phoenix last year with Christopher Bell and Burton’s talent is strongly tailored towards the style of racing produced at Phoenix. For Austin Cindric, he has performed well and also has an underrated resume at Phoenix which includes finishes of 4th, 5th, and 6th over his last 3 starts. In practices on Friday, the #22 had really solid long-run speed which should give them the opportunity to get strong as the afternoon unfolds.

A few additional drivers could provide value in either H2H match-ups or fantasy lineups. A few less popular drivers that appeared strong in practices included the likes of Ryan Sieg and Brandon Brown. Each week, I try to identify a few drivers that appear to be trending above the average or “norm.” This week I believe both Sieg and Brown are headed in that direction. Brown’s #68 team has been performing very well with finishes of 7th at Daytona and 11th at Las Vegas. Last week, the team had some misfortune but this is easily a top 15 team. Likewise, Ryan Sieg will have a chance to show the #39 is on an uptrend. Sieg posted a career best 10th place Phoenix finish in this race one year ago and I’m expecting another similar opportunity on Saturday. Both drivers could be sharp H2H options once match-ups are released and also keep both drivers in mind for fantasy purposes. As always, we will wait until after qualifying to decide on fantasy line-ups.

Drivers to Fade

I don’t have a lot of drivers on my fade list for this event. I will mention that Chase Briscoe likely deserves fade consideration because this type of racing is not his strength. Considering Briscoe is usually paired against the likes of Justin Allgaier, Austin Cindric, and the other top Xfinity Series regulars, this could be a great fade opportunity against a #98 team that struggled in practice. Another driver that may deserve some fade consideration includes rookie Riley Herbst. Herbst may be a situational fade coming off a career best 2nd place finish last week at Auto Club Speedway. For this week’s race at Phoenix, this is not a track where the equipment is going to shine like it did last week at Auto Club Speedway. I’m not knocking Herbst’s 2nd place finish but the JGR cars were awesome last week. It will be much tougher this week and I expect the rookie to be further back in the pack!

2020 LS Tractor 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 LS Tractor 200 Race Picks

*Final*
*parlay options were not offered this week, therefore we turn to a conservative strategy with race winners because the odds for the favorites (Busch/Keselowski) do not provide betting value*

Justin Allgaier +1320 (1 unit) *early pick
Harrison Burton +3300 (.5 unit) *early pick
Austin Cindric +4400 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Harrison Burton -110 over Chase Briscoe
Team 2 – Open (To be filled in the Fan Shield 500 if eligible)
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

H2H Bets

Austin Cindric +155 over Ross Chastain (2 units)