2020 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 17th, 2020 7:00PM EST at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Shortly after the Truck Series waves the checkered flag in the Clean Harbors 200, the Xfinity Series will roll out under the bright lights of Kansas Speedway for the running of the Kansas Lottery 300 in Saturday’s primetime act of NASCAR’s double header. Like the rest of NASCAR’s top series, this weekend’s race at Kansas will be the placeholder event for the start of the Round of 8 in the Xfinity Series playoffs. Currently Brandon Jones ranks 6th in the Xfinity Series points standings as an outsider looking to fight his way into the championship round at Phoenix. However, Jones has won the last two races at Kansas including the Kansas Lottery 250 back in July. Can Jones deliver the hat trick and secure his championship hopes or should we steer our betting focus in a different direction? Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2020 Kansas Lottery 300 race picks!

I know earlier this year Austin Cindric separated himself from the competition during the summer months with an impressive string of victories that included 3 straight wins on 1.5 mile layouts at Kentucky and Texas followed by a runner-up finish at Kansas. While I have been quick to call the #22 team the best in the series at 1.5 mile layouts in terms of raw speed, their last two performances at similar sized layouts of Darlington and Las Vegas have produced underwhelming results. I know Darlington is a completely different layout stylistically but Cindric was also never in the picture back at Las Vegas a few weeks ago which begs the following question; should Cindric continue to be listed as the overall favorite? Personally, I think the #22 team has lost a bit of their steam and that will allow us to explore more valuable betting options for this Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300!

Loop Data

I normally do not include loop data metrics in NASCAR’s lower series because you don’t usually have the historical data for valuable observations. However for places like Kansas that has a high grip level and is really dependent on performance speed, I think we can look at trends from relatively recent races on similar stylistic layouts to help provide a baseline of expectations. As a result, I compiled loop data stats from the last 3 races at 1.5 mile layouts which includes Texas, Kansas, and Las Vegas that share similar aerodynamic speed qualities. Without much surprise, Austin Cindric tops the list at a 128.2 average rating. However, the gap back to the likes of Chase Briscoe (119.2) and most surprisingly Justin Allgaier (117.6) are much closer than most would assume.

Additionally, I will also admit that I was pleasantly surprised with the performance trends of Harrison Burton, Daniel Hemric, and Michael Annett for the 3 races captured within the results. Annett has a strong average finishing position of 7th place which far exceeds his norm for 1.5 mile surfaces. Meanwhile, Burton and Hemric have produced borderline favorite style metrics with solid performances in each of these tracks with similar grip levels. From these stats alone, I believe Allgaier and Burton should be elevated in the category of live underdogs while Hemric gets a boost in the H2H category as we move forward to Saturday’s race.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Cindric	128.2	3.0	3.3	3.3	3.0	2	86	99	185	576
Chase Briscoe	119.2	6.3	6.3	6.0	5.0	32	118	88	179	576
Justin Allgaier	117.6	6.0	3.3	6.0	5.3	0	130	48	98	576
Harrison Burton	108.2	5.7	8.7	5.7	6.3	21	151	44	25	576
Brandon Jones	105.4	5.0	7.7	6.7	7.0	-6	127	22	10	576
Daniel Hemric	100.2	11.5	9.0	5.0	7.5	21	125	10	0	375
Noah Gragson	97.7	8.3	5.7	16.0	10.0	10	83	28	0	499
Ross Chastain	97.2	6.3	5.7	10.3	7.3	-7	134	28	19	575
Justin Haley	93.9	11.0	8.0	8.3	9.3	4	120	1	0	576
Ryan Sieg	91.3	15.3	11.7	13.0	11.7	5	96	16	28	505
Michael Annett	89.4	5.0	12.0	7.0	9.7	15	118	4	8	576
Anthony Alfredo	85.9	9.0	2.5	18.0	11.5	24	95	10	9	391
Brandon Brown	76.9	17.3	12.0	12.3	14.7	26	86	2	0	575
Jeremy Clements	76.7	18.0	14.7	12.3	14.7	-11	69	0	0	575
Brett Moffitt	74.4	19.3	16.7	21.7	16.7	-13	100	0	0	490
Riley Herbst	68.6	7.3	19.3	19.3	19.0	-2	112	6	0	384
Josh Williams	64.3	22.0	17.0	20.3	18.3	-9	23	0	0	571
Stefan Parsons	61.1	26.0	22.0	19.5	21.0	-15	3	1	0	397
Tommy Joe Martins	59.3	28.7	21.3	18.7	22.0	-22	8	0	0	571
Alex Labbe	58.0	17.0	25.7	28.3	22.7	2	21	2	0	435
Jeffrey Earnhardt	55.5	17.7	23.7	21.0	24.0	-31	5	1	0	539
Jesse Little	54.3	19.3	24.3	23.7	24.0	8	15	0	0	562
Timmy Hill	54.3	23.0	26.0	21.7	23.3	0	15	0	0	568
Bayley Currey	51.7	29.7	25.0	22.7	23.7	44	13	0	0	568
Joe Graf Jr	49.2	28.7	24.0	25.7	24.3	-19	17	1	0	565
Myatt Snider	46.9	26.3	25.3	25.3	25.3	14	11	1	0	422
Colby Howard	45.5	30.0	21.5	22.5	25.0	-13	3	1	0	396
B.J. McLeod	45.4	21.7	26.7	26.0	25.0	-23	10	1	0	566
Matt Mills	42.2	28.3	28.3	27.7	27.3	-21	0	1	0	558
Chad Finchum	36.6	32.0	30.0	29.7	29.7	-34	0	4	0	404
Kyle Weatherman	34.4	33.7	34.3	33.7	33.3	-1	0	2	0	218
Kody Vanderwal	33.1	31.7	32.7	30.3	32.0	-30	0	0	0	440
Vinnie Miller	33.0	35.0	32.3	30.0	31.3	-1	0	1	0	415
Dexter Bean	30.8	20.3	33.0	32.7	32.7	-9	0	2	0	302
Stephen Leicht	23.9	31.0	36.5	36.5	36.5	-2	0	1	0	35

Betting Targets

Kansas is a place where driver input is important in the fact that you have to search around for the best grooves as the grip can change throughout the race due to the progressive banking. However, the track is not “difficult” to drive and that is why we could see some parity towards the front of the field. Passing will be difficult and track position will be of utmost importance in the closing laps. No disrespect to Brandon Jones but he has not had the fastest car in either of the last 2 races at Kansas despite capturing the wins. Cindric dominated this race back in July leading 131 laps and last year Cole Custer and Christopher Bell were the class of the field before late race issues. Needless to say, our betting options should include the drivers that could take advantage of the situational elements without having to place excessive risk in any single option.

Though Cindric and Briscoe deserve the overall favorite positions, I cannot justify the betting odds that are listed at less than 3 to 1 for either driver especially considering the slight fall-off we have seen from Cindric in recent weeks. Now make no mistake about it, Briscoe or Cindric could dominate this event and it would not be shocking to see the #22 team rebound this week at a track where they led 131 laps in July. However, I just think the risk far outweighs the reward. Instead, I am keeping my options open until I see better line movement. This week’s odds for the Kansas Lottery 300 are really conservative and I expect them to improve closer to race time. Currently, I believe Harrison Burton (+1000), Brandon Jones (+1600), and Daniel Hemric (+2500) provide the most value. I think you can get away with lowering your risk per bet for each driver and still have sufficient ROI on any of those drivers. Meanwhile, I am keeping close watch on the odds of Justin Allgaier (+500) and Cindric (+250) to see if they get better closer to race time.

For H2H match-ups, I am putting focus towards the likes of Justin Allgaier and Michael Annett as my main targets this week in terms of match-ups. I mentioned earlier that I was somewhat surprised by both of Allgaier’s and Annett’s stats when I compiled the loop data metrics. Furthermore if you look back to the races before Talladega and the ROVAL, both Allgaier and Annett have been performing really well at the traditional ovals. Annett actually put together a string of 6 straight top 10 finishes. Meanwhile, Allgaier won back to back races at Richmond then followed it up with top 5 finishes at both Bristol and Las Vegas. If you combine the momentum with the loop data stats above, I believe both drivers provide really sharp H2H value for the Kansas Lottery 300.

Drivers to Fade

I am not quite sure why Ross Chastain continues to be listed among the favorites this week. All respect to Chastain’s talent and he has been extremely consistent this season towards producing quality finishes. However, Chastain nor teammate Justin Haley have been great at the 1.5 mile tracks this season and you can validate that information in numerous ways. Obviously anything can happen in match-ups but fading Chastain against the likes of Burton, Allgaier, and Briscoe should produce high probability results. Additionally, I think we can throw Riley Herbst into the fade category this week. Herbst has an average finishing position (19.3) and average running position (19.0) that are embarrassing for a JGR caliber talent on 1.5 mile surfaces yet he is still getting far too much credit based on his performances in terms of odds. As a result, we have to use this to our advantage and fade the #18 this week.

Draftkings Kansas Lottery 300 Optimal Lineup

2020 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +550 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +1000 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1600 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Justin Allgaier -130 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Austin Cindric -160 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Michael Annett -115 over Riley Herbst (2 units)