2020 Kansas Lottery 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 25th, 5:00PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

After winning back to back races at Kentucky, Austin Cindric was awarded his 3rd consecutive victory in last week’s My Bariatric Solutions 300 at Texas Motor Speedway. Kyle Busch was the original winner but was disqualified for failing post-race inspection. As a result, Cindric is now credited with 3 straight victories which is rather remarkable considering the win at Kentucky was Cindric’s 1st victory on a traditional oval. Now the young driver of the Team Penske Ford will enter Saturday’s race at Kansas Speedway as the outright betting favorite as he seeks a 4th consecutive victory. However, there are a few other drivers that deserve betting attention as well. Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2020 Kansas Lottery 250 race picks for Kansas!

Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 250 will be the 2nd leg of a double header. The Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will be in action early Saturday afternoon before the Xfinity Series drivers take center stage. Once the action begins, I expect Cindric will be the guy with the fastest car yet again. The #22 team has been excellent in terms of speed in recent weeks at the 1.5 mile tracks and Kansas Speedway provides the perfect opportunity to keep the momentum going. Chase Briscoe will undoubtedly be in the mix as well. Despite seemingly not having a great car at either Kentucky or Texas, Briscoe still managed to bring home two runner-up finishes. Those runner-up finishes are just consolation stats for Briscoe in what has become a dominant season with 5 wins and 10 top 5 finishes through 16 races.

Both Cindric and Briscoe’s betting odds are extremely saturated this week which is not surprising considering both drivers have won exactly half of the races this year in the Xfinity Series. Personally, I want to see someone step up to challenge the top guys. Last week, I correctly predicted that Justin Allgaier would have a strong run and I’m still frustrated that Allgaier was nailed with a blend line violation which basically took him out of the battle for the win. Still, Allgaier’s performance last week was the first time in several weeks we have seen an Xfinity Series full-time driver outperform Cindric and Briscoe. For Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 250, I believe a few other drivers have the potential to run upfront but can they put a complete race together to capture a win?

Kansas Lottery 250 Dark Horses

Based on performance from the 1.5 mile speedways, Harrison Burton tops my list as the most likely driver that could pull the upset on Saturday outside of the top 3 drivers mentioned above. Burton has consistently been the highest performing driver whose name is not Cindric or Briscoe over the last few races. Burton’s average running position over the last two races is 6th which ranks 3rd behind Cindric (2.5) and Briscoe (5.5). The rookie already has 2 wins (Fontana and Homestead) this season and is running well enough to battle for another victory on Saturday.

Brandon Jones and Daniel Hemric are both worthy of dark horse consideration. Unfortunately, odds makers have both drivers vastly overvalued. Hemric has never won at the Xfinity Series level despite being close numerous times yet is listed at just 14 to 1 odds. Brandon Jones is the defending winner of the Kansas Lottery 250 which was also the 1st Xfinity Series victory of his career. Jones captured his only other victory earlier this year at Phoenix. Despite the victory last year at Kansas, Jones has finished outside the top 15 in 5 of the last 6 races. Granted most of those were the result of misfortune, Jones still has not shown the performance consistency to warrant the 9 to 1 betting odds he is currently receiving.

From an odds standpoint, I don’t see a lot of value in win bets this week. The listed odds do not correlate with the probability factor which is a losing recipe. I will still have a couple of value plays including Riley Herbst who may be the best weekly “dark horse” because he continues to be listed as a huge long shot. At 70 to 1 odds, I will take Herbst nearly every week because I think he is a solid driver and has even better equipment. Outside of a few value picks, the majority of my focus will be on H2H match-ups this week because they simply provide the best betting opportunities.

H2H Targets and Fades

Currently there are only a handful of match-ups listed at most online sportsbooks. However, we typically see additional H2H match-ups listed each week on the actual day of the event. Once that happens, I will continue to target Austin Cindric in any match-ups that are close to even money. Cindric’s performance has been too strong to ignore his betting value if you can find him in opportunistic priced match-ups no matter if it is against Chase Briscoe or anyone. Additionally, I also have high expectations for Daniel Hemric this week. Hemric’s H2H value has dropped with a few bad finishes but he has been really solid in the #8 car especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. As a result, I will be looking to find value with Hemric because he could be a sneaky good H2H option.

I’m not completely sure if Kaz Grala will be listed in H2H match-ups this week but I plan on fading the #21 if it happens. Grala will be making his 1st start of the year and this start is likely preparation for the road course stretch that was originally planned. Grala is an excellent road course driver but a fairly average talent on the ovals. We know the #21 team has been fast this year and perhaps that raises expectations for Grala this week. However, I don’t see Grala being able to overachieve like we have seen with Myatt Snider and Anthony Alfredo in this car. Among the favorites, Ross Chastain is one of my favorites to fade this week. After a pair of decent outings at Kentucky, Chastain was barely a top 10 car last week. I have mentioned that Kaulig Racing has struggled on the intermediate layouts and though they have great drivers; Chastain does not deserve the betting value to be equally aligned with the favorites in this race.

Fantasy Options

I have already discussed my thoughts on the majority of the favorites this week. I doubt I will have any line-ups without Austin Cindric this week and will ride the #22 in all fantasy formats until I get burned. I have optimism that Justin Allgaier should be strong again this week which elevates his value from the 11th starting spot. More importantly, let me list a few names that could be valuable cheap options this week that are starting deep in the field. There is a trio of drivers that have my attention including Myatt Snider, Joe Graf Jr, and Ryan Vargas. Snider likely has the higher ceiling of the 3 options but he is also the most expensive ($9,200). Vargas is making just his 2nd start of the year but was impressive at Pocono with a top 15 finish. Meanwhile, Joe Grag Jr ($6,200) has excellent value as a driver that should yield solid production and provide salary relief.

Draftkings 2020 Kansas Lottery 250 Optimal Lineup

2020 Kansas Lottery 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +250 (2 units)
Harrison Burton +900 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +7000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Ross Chastain -130 over Justin Haley (3 units)
Chase Briscoe -140 over Noah Gragson (2 units)
Michael Annett -135 over Kaz Grala (2 units)
Brandon Brown -110 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)