2020 Kansas 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday July 24th, 2020 7:00PM EST at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

For the first time this year, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will get the chance to run a double header with back to back races on Friday and Saturday. Both the Cup Series and Xfinity Series have held double headers at the same venue on multiple occasions this year and finally the Truck Series will have the luxury of back to back events this weekend. As it currently stands, both races are labeled the Kansas 200 and those names may change with late sponsor announcements. With that being said, let’s open up the discussion around Friday night’s 200 mile shootout under the lights. Take a look as we discuss the best betting options and provide our 2020 Kansas 200 race picks for Kansas!

Last week, Kyle Busch scored his 59th Truck Series win at Texas Motor Speedway. Despite the fact the heavy favorite pulled out the victory, I was impressed by our betting picks which yielded 4 of the top 5 finishing positions. Fortunately for bettors, Kyle Busch will not be in action in either truck race. Brandon Jones will step into the #51 truck for the 2nd time this season. Jones earned a victory at Pocono in his 1st start of the season which should raise the expectations for the full-time Xfinity Series driver. Still without Busch in the line-up this week, it will be an excellent opportunity for one of the full-time Truck Series competitors to get a chance to chase a victory. From a handicapping standpoint, I believe we have been on the right path in the Truck Series and will be ready to attack both races this weekend.

If you look back to the last two previews, my thoughts on the Truck Series teams on the 1.5 mile speedways has been unwavering. At this point, GMS Racing has the best speed. Sheldon Creed captured the victory at Kentucky and their trucks looked great last week despite some troubles involving Creed and Zane Smith. Behind the GMS Racing trucks, Thorsport Racing is right on their heels. Despite having alternator and battery issues at Texas, my H2H target in Matt Crafton rallied to a 3rd place finish. I actually believe Crafton is the best of the Thorsport Racing trucks at the moment and definitely has the most value in terms of betting odds.

Both Johnny Sauter and Ben Rhodes have also shown speed in recent weeks but both trucks need to find more consistency. Outside of the organizational power, Austin Hill likely remains the most talented driver in the series though I still don’t believe the #16 truck has the best aero speed on these low-wear 1.5 mile speedways. Christian Eckes appears to be gaining a ton of momentum and likely deserves the overall favorite position this week. Eckes actually had Busch beat on speed last week at Texas but lost the lead on the final pitstop. While teammate Brandon Jones will certainly be in the mix in the #51 truck, it’s hard to ignore the momentum from the #18 team going into this week’s races at Kansas.

Drivers to target to win the Kansas 200

I mentioned above the speed from the GMS Racing trucks has been obvious over the last two weeks at similar 1.5 mile layouts. I must say that I continue to be impressed with Zane Smith who may just be the next superstar in the making. Smith cut down a tire last week at Texas which ruined his finish. Before that the #21 was easily a top 5 truck and led 26 laps. Smith has shown a really strong trend line at the 1.5 mile tracks this year and I expect that to continue going into this weekend’s races. I feel like Smith and Sheldon Creed have shown the most speed from the GMS trucks despite the fact Brett Moffitt is also starting to gain some momentum. As a result, I believe we can possibly put both Smith and Creed in our lineups this week based on odds though we may have to limit the overall size of each play.

By no mistake, Christian Eckes is my favorite choice to earn the victory Friday night. Eckes odds have dipped quite a bit this week in the absence of Busch but the speed from the #18 has been really strong which makes Eckes the deserving favorite. It helps the Eckes earned the pole from the starting draw but I really believe the speed of the #18 is the big difference maker. Also, don’t overlook guys like Johnny Sauter and Matt Crafton who are getting very generous odds. The #88 was the fastest truck at the end of last week’s race at Texas and has a ton of momentum. While Sauter’s performance has not been as strong, the speed is not far off.

Drivers to Fade

For the last several weeks, I keep mentioning Ross Chastain as a potential fade target and I am not backing down from that narrative this week. I had Brett Moffitt over Ross Chastain last week at Texas and I don’t remember a point in the race where Chastain was in front of the #23. For whatever reason, odds makers continue to give Chastain too much credit and he is once again among the top 4 favorites for Friday. Everyone knows Chastain is a talented driver but at these low-wear 1.5 mile speedways; speed is king. The Niece Motorsports trucks have not shown much speed this year. Though Chastain has bounced around in different trucks for Niece Motorsports this year, he returns to the #40 this week which has just 1 top 10 finish since Daytona with Chastain back at Pocono. This week’s race at Kansas provides another perfect opportunity to fade this high-profiled driver who is at a disadvantage in terms of raw speed.

Another driver that I am also looking to potentially fade this week includes Austin Hill in the #16 truck. Now it is always a risky play when you look to fade one of the best drivers in the series and Hill has been the highest rated driver on 1.5 mile speedways thus far this season. However, I am also very observant towards trend reversals and I have seen some significant struggles from the #16 truck over the last few races. Hill was great at Atlanta and Homestead; tracks that are notorious for low-grip and heavy tire wear where the driver can overcome raw speed disadvantages. Hill led at least 25 laps at Charlotte, Atlanta, and Homestead in consecutive events. However in the last 3 races, Hill has not led a single lap and things were awful last week at Texas in terms of overall performance. Considering Hill is among the overall favorites and paired against top-tier drivers, the #16 could be a solid, albeit risky, fade candidate this week.

H2H Match-ups and Fantasy Targets

Outside of some of the top contenders that I mentioned above, let’s not forget some of the drivers that may yield different types of value this Thursday in the form of H2H match-ups and/or fantasy value. Two of my favorite drivers to yield value in both categories this week are Derek Krauss and Tyler Ankrum. After a slow start, Ankrum has found some momentum thanks surely to the speed from GMS Racing. Creed, Smith, and Moffitt get all of the attention from this organization but Ankrum is a worthy competitor. The young driver scored a win at Kentucky last year which has a lot of similarities to Kansas. More importantly, Ankrum has started performing fairly well at the 1.5 mile speedways with a 2nd at Homestead and a 6th place result last week at Texas.

Additionally, I have Derek Kraus high up my fantasy radar this week. The former K&N Pro Series Champion has put together several nice runs in recent weeks finishing 11th or better in the last 3 races. Kraus drew the 15th position for Friday night’s race which perhaps limits his ceiling. However at just $6,900, he still has value as a cheap option that should produce decent results. Lastly, I will also mention Matt Crafton once again. Crafton has fantasy value from the 17th starting position. Though he will be among the favorites in pricing, Crafton has fantasy and H2H appeal again this week especially paired against his Thorsport Racing teammates because the #88 has been the best of the group.

Kansas 200 Optimal Lineup

2020 Kansas 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Brett Moffitt +950 (1 unit)
Zane Smith +1320 (1 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1320 (.75 unit)
Johnny Sauter +1760 (.75 unit)
Matt Crafton +2200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Christian Eckes -105 over Austin Hill (3 units)
Matt Crafton -115 over Stewart Friesen (2 units)
Johnny Sauter -125 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)