2020 Hooters 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday June 13th, 3:30PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series will have the luxury of competing twice this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Similar to the way the Cup Series has held mid-week races, the Xfinity Series is making up for lost time with races on both Saturday and Sunday this weekend. To make things more exciting, each race will stand as a double header for NASCAR with the Trucks racing afterwards Saturday night and the Cup Series racing afterwards on Sunday. The action kicks off on Saturday with the running of the Hooters 250 and the return of NASCAR’s most popular driver in Dale Earnhardt Jr! Find out our thoughts as we break down our betting expectations with our 2020 Hooters 250 race picks!

To jump right into Saturday’s preview, let me first state that I am a big Earnhardt fan. I pulled for Big E and have followed Dale Jr since his early racing days at Myrtle Beach, S.C. With that being said, it blows my mind that Junior is listed at just 4 to 1 odds to win the Hooters 250. Earnhardt has not competed in over a year and will be jumping into the Xfinity Series ride without any practice. Now to be fair, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a pretty favorable track for Dale Jr and has love for rim riding against the wall. However I am still stuck on the lack of seat time and the odds. I know in today’s environment drivers have simulators but it is still a big difference jumping behind the seat after such a long layoff. I will be pulling for Earnhardt but I can no way include him for any betting consideration at his odds.

Obviously anything can happen in NASCAR just as we saw last week when A.J. Allmendinger won at Atlanta thanks largely to 3 of the leaders getting speeding penalties late in the race. As we move forward with focus on the Xfinity Series regulars, I think it has become clear that Austin Cindric, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, and Justin Allgaier are likely your weekly favorites based on consistency. The ugly truth to that statement is the fact that Justin Allgaier and Austin Cindric have been capable of winning on several occasions this season but have failed to get the job done. Still, they have been the most consistent front-runners so far this year. The question now becomes is who should we target at a place like Homestead?

Betting Targets

To narrow into betting targets at Homestead, we can look at how drivers performed at the low-grip high wear tracks like Darlington and Atlanta in recent weeks. While Homestead-Miami is different in shape and banking, the surface structure has a lot of similarities to those tracks in recent weeks. Surprisingly, Noah Gragson has actually posted the highest driver rating at both Darlington and Atlanta. Gragson posted a plus 120 average driver rating in both races finishing 5th and 2nd respectively. Going into the week, I was anticipating the option of betting Gragson based purely on momentum. I was rather surprised to see the numbers that support the notion and I believe the #9 car is a sharp pick on Saturday.

Both Gragson and Chase Briscoe finished inside the top 5 in last November’s Ford Ecoboost 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. What makes that achievement impressive is the fact that was a championship race where the “Big 3” (Bell, Custer, and Reddick) took home 3 of the top 5 positions in their epic championship battle. Briscoe recently won the Toyota 200 at Darlington which is another challenging test for drivers and that boost his stock going into Homestead as an elite betting option. Though Briscoe’s odds are relatively low, he remains one of the biggest threats on Saturday.

Outside of my favorites in Gragson and Briscoe, nobody can count out the opportunity for guys like Justin Allgaier, Austin Cindric, Brandon Jones, and Harrison Burton. Those drivers definitely have the talent to get the job done but perhaps too often disappoint from an expectations standpoint. One of the important factors about betting targets this week is that you want to make sure we are targeting high level skilled drivers and not just drivers in strong equipment. Time and time again talent outperforms speed at Homestead just as Tyler Reddick proved the last 2 years in Xfinity Series races at this venue. Therefore guys like Justin Haley (strong run last week) and Ross Chastain should be given extra consideration this week as extremely talented “wheelmen.”

Drivers to Fade

Without practices, we still don’t have any indication of the teams that just “missed” the setup off the truck. However if things remain relatively normal to the trends, Justin Allgaier and Riley Herbst should be considered sharp fades on Saturday. Herbst has never raced at Homestead and despite having really good equipment; this is going to be an extremely tough challenge. Furthermore, Herbst and the #18 team have been struggling in performance with 4 straight finishes outside the top 10.

For Justin Allgaier, this is simply not a track that suits his driving style. I have always thought of Allgaier as a short-track, flat surface driver that is good at rhythmic lap times. Getting around Homestead requires you driving the car completely on the edge of control and wrestling it through the turns. Allgaier has the experience to know what it takes to be fast at Homestead but I just don’t believe it is a good parallel to his skillset. In 10 starts in his Xfinity Series career, Allgaier has just 2 top 10 finishes and 0 top 5 finishes which proves the point that I am making. Since Allgaier is consistently paired against the best drivers each week, I would put a vote of confidence towards fading the #7 team this week.

2020 Hooters 250 Optimal Lineup

2020 Hooters 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +750 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +850 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1250 (.75 unit)
Justin Haley +3000 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Chase Briscoe -150 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Austin Cindric -115 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Michael Annett -115 over Ryan Sieg (2 units)