2020 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 18th, 2:30PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway ROVAL
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series will wave the green flag in the Round of 8 of the playoffs with the running of the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Last week, NASCAR fans witnessed a critical moment in the 2020 season when defending Cup Series Champion, Kyle Busch, was eliminated from the playoffs along with Clint Bowyer, Austin Dillon, and Aric Almirola. Now just 3 races remain to decide the final 4 drivers that will fight for the championship at Phoenix. Back in July, Denny Hamlin won the Super Start Batteries 400 giving Hamlin his 2nd consecutive victory at Kansas. This week, Hamlin will be seeking a 3-peat with an opportunity to seal his championship bid. Take a look as we discuss Hamlin’s chances on Sunday and ultimately provide our best bets with our 2020 Hollywood Casino 400 race picks!

Even though Hamlin has won the last two races at Kansas, Kevin Harvick remains the overall betting favorite going into Sunday’s race. While Hamlin and Harvick have combined for 16 victories this season, they have only won 3 of the 10 races on 1.5 mile tracks this season. Between the two championship favorites, Harvick has posted an average finish position of 8.1 through 10 starts on 1.5 mile layouts this season with 1 victory (Atlanta) and 366 laps led. Meanwhile, Hamlin has posted an average finish of 10th with two wins (Homestead and Kansas) and 326 laps led. Therefore, Harvick actually has the slightly better stats despite Hamlin capturing the extra victory in comparison.

Since Kansas Speedway has a higher grip level compared to most 1.5 mile tracks, we have to consider performance trends this week. The drivers/teams that produce the most aerodynamic speed throughout the season should shine at Kansas which likely favors the likes of Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing. While there is no denying both Hamlin and Harvick have been two of the fastest cars throughout the season, their performance trends at the 1.5 mile surfaces do not exactly warrant the extremely heavy favorite odds that we are seeing for both drivers. As a result, we will attempt to find the best value in the drivers behind Harvick and Hamlin which will provide the more opportunistic betting opportunity.

Loop Data

For this week’s loop data statistics, I have compiled two different data elements including the last 5 races at Kansas and a 3 race average stemming from Kentucky, Kansas, and Las Vegas. I usually list the last 5 races in our loop data each week to show the historical correlations. However since success at Kansas Speedway is usually closely tied to speed/performance, I thought we should take a closer look at recent races on layouts with similar characteristics. For the last 5 races at Kansas, Kevin Harvick stands alone with the best average driver rating of 117.3 with a host of other drivers at triple digit ratings. When we look at the last 3 races this season from Kentucky, Kansas, and Las Vegas, we get a rather completely different picture with Martin Truex Jr (116.9) and Denny Hamlin (114.6) standing as the clear two biggest favorites in the field.

Ryan Blaney and Aric Almirola are the only other two drivers that have a triple digit rating which closely resembles some of the performance trends that we have witnessed this season on 1.5 mile layouts. While I think both Almirola and Blaney have lost some steam from their mid-summer performances, both drivers have performed better on the 1.5 mile surfaces compared to different layouts. Meanwhile, drivers like Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, and Austin Dillon have performed less desirable than most would expect compared to performance thus far seen throughout the playoffs. Therefore, I think we should pay slightly closer attention to the 2020 trends on similar layouts and give those data elements more credibility than the track history at Kansas.

*Last 5 races at Kansas Speedway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	117.3	9.0	6.0	7.8	6.8	28	199	169	268	1349
Kyle Busch	106.1	8.8	10.2	11.2	7.2	52	281	132	53	1346
Martin Truex Jr	103.3	13.2	10.2	7.0	9.4	31	224	74	90	1348
Chase Elliott	103.0	17.4	11.0	6.2	9.2	61	266	59	93	1349
Brad Keselowski	102.1	5.0	9.0	8.4	10.2	-18	226	83	70	1349
Denny Hamlin	102.0	11.8	8.4	7.4	10.6	44	176	71	210	1347
Erik Jones	101.7	13.0	11.4	5.2	8.8	59	322	62	0	1349
Ryan Blaney	95.4	5.2	4.0	23.4	8.2	-69	148	110	80	1321
Joey Logano	94.6	14.2	13.2	15.6	12.4	83	163	51	137	1257
Kurt Busch	91.7	10.4	15.0	9.2	11.8	26	246	5	7	1348
Alex Bowman	91.0	11.2	15.8	9.6	12.4	1	226	45	76	1348
Aric Almirola	90.2	11.2	15.2	12.0	11.6	4	225	17	0	1346
Clint Bowyer	87.3	17.8	15.0	11.0	12.0	25	226	14	12	1349
Tyler Reddick	83.3	22.0	7.5	11.0	14.0	8	98	13	0	538
William Byron	75.0	14.6	19.6	21.2	17.8	7	156	31	32	1121
Jimmie Johnson	73.5	17.8	19.8	17.8	17.4	-36	178	13	0	1277
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	71.9	17.8	21.4	19.6	19.4	-32	116	11	23	1138
Chris Buescher	68.3	17.6	17.0	21.2	18.8	-12	122	3	10	1248
Austin Dillon	66.7	17.6	22.2	18.4	19.4	-16	110	4	4	1331
Ryan Newman	61.7	15.0	23.8	27.2	22.4	-43	104	7	0	1111
Daniel Suarez	61.3	20.2	19.8	23.2	21.6	-47	84	19	6	1329
Matt DiBenedetto	59.3	25.4	19.2	26.4	22.4	24	87	6	0	1240
Ryan Preece	56.4	28.3	24.0	23.7	25.0	20	36	1	0	727
Matt Kenseth	56.1	24.5	24.5	26.5	23.5	-11	6	0	0	517
Michael McDowell	52.2	26.0	21.8	22.6	25.4	-44	26	15	0	1337
Bubba Wallace	52.0	16.8	23.6	30.0	26.0	-64	33	5	2	1227
Ty Dillon	50.8	30.4	26.2	25.6	26.4	-30	41	1	0	1322
Corey LaJoie	47.4	27.8	25.2	25.8	28.0	-25	28	4	0	1289
J.J. Yeley	41.4	33.3	32.0	27.7	30.3	2	0	0	0	792
Quin Houff	35.0	28.5	35.0	29.0	34.0	2	0	0	0	523
Reed Sorenson	32.6	34.2	34.8	32.4	34.6	21	0	0	0	1162
Joey Gase	27.3	37.7	37.3	35.0	36.7	0	0	1	0	616
B.J. McLeod	26.8	36.7	37.3	35.7	37.0	2	0	0	0	567
Timmy Hill	25.8	38.6	38.8	37.6	38.4	4	0	2	0	724

*Last 3 races at Kentucky, Kansas, and Las Vegas

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	116.9	8.3	5.0	3.0	6.0	26	178	77	101	802
Denny Hamlin	114.6	10.7	8.0	5.3	8.3	-1	135	86	178	802
Ryan Blaney	108.1	10.0	5.3	11.0	6.3	1	160	68	34	801
Aric Almirola	101.3	3.7	7.7	10.3	10.0	-15	132	40	128	802
Kurt Busch	99.0	8.3	14.0	5.0	11.0	9	188	35	29	802
Alex Bowman	99.0	6.3	10.7	10.7	9.3	-34	132	32	11	802
Brad Keselowski	99.0	8.3	12.0	8.0	9.0	24	182	36	66	802
Kevin Harvick	98.7	1.7	12.7	6.0	9.0	2	158	14	20	802
Joey Logano	97.0	3.0	15.3	21.3	15.0	-8	81	19	28	711
Chase Elliott	96.5	7.3	8.3	19.0	8.0	-18	147	65	73	802
Kyle Busch	95.2	3.7	10.3	12.7	9.3	-15	142	45	67	802
Matt DiBenedetto	95.2	13.7	10.3	13.7	12.0	9	161	8	9	710
Erik Jones	84.3	16.7	16.7	11.7	13.7	30	139	10	0	802
Clint Bowyer	84.2	13.3	16.7	13.3	12.7	-44	178	9	0	802
Cole Custer	82.7	25.0	16.3	8.0	15.7	59	146	10	5	802
Jimmie Johnson	79.1	19.3	15.3	20.3	15.7	23	138	16	0	735
William Byron	77.9	21.3	13.0	15.3	15.0	2	101	20	43	802
Austin Dillon	72.0	14.0	13.7	24.0	16.0	16	115	6	0	779
Tyler Reddick	69.5	20.3	11.7	20.3	19.3	10	114	22	0	691
Christopher Bell	68.0	27.3	18.7	18.0	18.7	60	85	3	0	799
Chris Buescher	65.8	14.0	15.0	20.7	20.3	-19	51	3	10	717
Matt Kenseth	62.0	17.0	21.0	20.0	21.0	-20	39	8	0	802
Michael McDowell	58.8	24.7	25.0	20.3	21.7	-30	37	1	0	802
Ryan Newman	57.9	22.7	15.3	20.0	22.0	0	31	6	0	786
John Hunter Nemechek	57.1	25.7	21.3	25.0	21.7	-10	59	6	0	782
Ty Dillon	57.0	31.0	26.7	19.0	23.7	-7	29	0	0	801
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	52.2	24.0	30.7	30.7	27.7	-3	25	3	0	590
Bubba Wallace	50.4	19.3	27.0	30.7	26.3	-38	8	1	0	701
Ryan Preece	48.7	29.3	24.7	30.3	27.0	5	4	1	0	608
Corey LaJoie	48.2	29.7	21.0	25.3	26.0	-9	15	3	0	797
Daniel Suarez	45.1	34.3	30.3	24.3	28.0	6	4	2	0	799
Brennan Poole	39.6	31.7	33.0	30.3	32.3	-2	0	1	0	743
J.J. Yeley	39.1	33.7	32.7	28.3	31.0	-6	0	1	0	786
Garrett Smithley	34.8	25.5	35.5	29.5	34.0	-2	0	3	0	517
Quin Houff	33.7	30.7	34.3	31.0	34.0	-5	0	1	0	774
Josh Bilicki	32.1	32.3	34.7	31.0	34.3	16	0	5	0	744
Joey Gase	29.5	34.3	36.7	32.7	35.0	2	0	3	0	764
Timmy Hill	26.4	37.3	38.0	37.3	37.7	-10	0	5	0	446

Betting Targets

Before odds were released, I was trending in favor of Martin Truex Jr due to his strong performance on 1.5 mile surfaces in recent races and I believe the loop data stats for the 3 similar venues above confirms that narrative. Not only has Truex performed well at recent 1.5 mile layouts but the #19 team has also finished inside the top 5 in 10 of the last 14 races which is the best in the Cup Series through that time frame. If I had to pick my favorite play to pivot against the likes of Harvick and Hamlin, Truex fits the bill.

The good news for bettors is that if things get wild; there could be numerous dark horses that provide advantageous bettin value. Erik Jones has been fantastic at Kansas with top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 4 starts including a 5th place finish back in July. Brad Keselowski should be considered a top threat due to the Team Penske performance on 1.5 mile tracks. For fantasy players, Keselowski has not finished outside the top 13 in the last 12 races on 1.5 mile tracks and had a runner-up finish at Kansas back in July. Meanwhile, drivers like Kurt Busch and Cole Custer provide premium long shot potential following consistent strong performances at 1.5 mile venues including Kansas back in July.

If I had to provide my best targets that provide sharp value, I would consider Chase Elliott/Martin Truex and Erik Jones the best bets on the board. I include both Elliott and Truex in the same category because I believe both drivers provide ample value as pivots against the overall favorites and each can be targeted aggressively against all other drivers in a similar price range. I mentioned Truex above but Elliott is also trending in the right direction in terms of performance. Furthermore, Elliott has finished 4th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Kansas. Likewise, Erik Jones should be given sharp value as well due to his performance on similar layouts and really strong resume at Kansas Speedway.

Drivers to Fade

I alluded to a few of the potential fade options above. I personally think we have a great opportunity to fade Austin Dillon after his hot-streak in the Round of 16 has finally cooled. Dillon posted sub 80 ratings in both loop data stats above and appears to have lost some of the performance momentum that he had at the onset of the playoffs. I would also include the likes of Clint Bowyer and William Byron into similar fade categories primarily based on their performance on similar venues this season. Bowyer has most notably struggled significantly at the 1.5 mile venues and perhaps provides the most fade value. However, Byron should also be given ample consideration given the drivers he is currently paired against at most major sportsbooks!

Fantasy Targets

For fantasy bettors, this week’s Hollywood Casino 400 is a difficult fantasy event because the majority of the drivers that should be expected to perform well, are also starting at the front of the field. If any of our drivers miss the mark, it could create substantial risk in negative place-differential and kill the value in line-ups. As a result, I would approach Sunday’s event with caution from a fantasy standpoint. If I had to make a few predictions, I believe Chase Elliott ($11,200) and Martin Truex ($11,000) are the best bets among the favorites. Elliott has a high likelihood of leading several early laps and has some sharp value for the outright win. Meanwhile, Truex falls into both of those categories as well as one of my favorite plays on Sunday. Lastly, don’t overlook Kyle Busch ($9,900) from the 20th starting position. Before being eliminated from the playoffs, the #18 team had been performing fairly well and if they can have just a decent afternoon, Busch provides value based on the starting position alone.

Behind the heavy favorites, Erik Jones ($8,600), and Aric Almirola ($8,000) are solid options among the intermediate range drivers. I mentioned Jones on multiple instances above but Almirola also deserves consideration from the 16th place starting position. Almirola has finished 8th or better in 4 of the last 5 races on 1.5 mile layouts. If you are looking for even cheaper options, consider drivers like Cole Custer ($7,000), Matt Kenseth ($6,600), and John Hunter Nemechek ($6,100) as flier options with legitimate upside. Custer’s ceiling may be limited due to his 13th place starting position but his cheap price tag is still in-play due to his performance this year on 1.5 mile surfaces. Meanwhile both Kenseth and John Hunter provide legitimate upside from their poor starting positions as drivers that could hit value based on the salary tags.

Draftkings 2020 Hollywood Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +450 (1.25 units)
Chase Elliott +600 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2500 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +4000 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Cole Custer -140 over Christopher Bell (3 units)
Matt DiBenedetto +100 over Austin Dillon (3 units)
Martin Truex Jr -115 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Erik Jones +330 wins Group B (Almirola, Bowyer, Byron, Johnson)(1 unit)