2020 Henry Ford Health System 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday August 7th, 6:15PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

After a 13 day layoff, the Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series returns to action this Friday in the Irish Hills at Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Henry Ford Health System 200. In the Truck Series’ most recent stop at Kansas, Matt Crafton ended a 3 year winless drought and fortunately we were able to profit at 22 to 1 odds in our biggest Truck Series win of the season. This week we have an opportunity to build some momentum and potentially cash another big winner. The Truck Series has produced 7 different winners in just 10 races this season and it would not be surprising to see another new face in victory lane Friday night. As we prepare for a full weekend of races at Michigan, let’s kick off the discussion involving the drivers that should be targeted with our 2020 Henry Ford Health System 200 race picks!

Unlike the Cup Series that has visited tracks like Auto Club Speedway and Indianapolis, Truck Series teams and drivers have not raced on any tracks this season that directly correlates to Michigan International Speedway. The vast majority of the races held in the Truck Series this season have pertained to 1.5 mile surfaces. The good news is that those performances at 1.5 mile surfaces can still be used in handicapping this Friday’s race at Michigan. Often drivers are nearly full throttle at many of the intermediate tracks because of the amount of aerodynamic downforce created by the shape of the Truck Series body. When it comes to racing at Michigan in the Truck Series, it really comes down to aerodynamic speed, the driver that can stay in the throttle, and the ability to have a setup that keeps the truck turning in the corners to maintain top speed. As a result, we can look at the speed indicator seen in recent weeks and apply it towards our handicapping analysis for Michigan.

Drivers to Target

My favorite betting target this week is Austin Hill in all formats. Hill picked up his 1st win of the season at Kansas and is the defending winner of this race. In fact, the #16 team at Hattori Racing Enterprises have won the last 2 races at Michigan going back to Brett Moffitt’s win with the team in 2018. Not only does the #16 team have past success on their side at Michigan but I also believe Hill is one of the best talents behind the wheel in the Truck Series. Simply put, you have to be skilled to run upfront at Michigan and Hill should shine when the green flag waves.

Behind Austin Hill, Brett Moffitt deserves major respect this week. Moffitt has won 2 of the last 4 races at Michigan and has some sharp value this week stemming from the speed GMS Racing has shown in the last few weeks. Teammates Sheldon Creed and Zane Smith deserve equal respect this week. Both drivers have been impressive this season. Creed captured his 1st win at Kentucky and finished in the runner-up position as a rookie at Michigan in 2019. I personally believe Creed provides sharp betting value in the form of H2H match-ups but also yields some win value as well.

If we want to find deeper betting value, I will turn towards the Thorsport Racing trucks once again this week. After finally ending his winless drought of 3 years last time out at Kansas, Matt Crafton remains red hot with top 4 finishes in the last 4 races. Meanwhile, both Ben Rhodes and Grant Enfinger have shown similar winning speed in recent weeks to provide some dark horse potential. I personally like Rhodes as the better option of the two drivers. Rhodes has posted 4 top 5 finishes this season which is 2nd to Austin Hill for the most in the series. More importantly, Rhodes has always run well at Michigan and with the recent momentum; the timing of this race may be setting up nicely for the #99 team.

Drivers to Fade

I only have a couple of fade targets this week but I remain pretty confident in betting against Chandler Smith and Johnny Sauter. For starters, Chandler Smith continues to be among the intermediate betting favorites thanks mainly to his success in 2019 which included 3 top 5 finishes in 4 starts. However, I think oddsmakers are giving the young driver a bit too much credit. The KBM trucks were far more dominant in 2019 in terms of raw speed and Smith had the luxury of working with Rudy Fugle for half of his starts. Fugle has moved over to the #18 team with Christian Eckes which hurts for an inexperienced driver on larger layouts. Remember, Smith just became old enough to race on the tracks over 1-mile in length and this will be just his 2nd start on larger tracks (1st at Michigan). Smith struggled at Kentucky in his 1st start in 2020 and I am willing to bet against his top-tier status until proven wrong.

Lastly, Johnny Sauter remains high on my fade list this week. Sauter is currently on a stretch of bad luck due to engine issues at Texas and the innocent victim of a wreck at Kansas. However, I have not been very impressed with the speed of the #13 truck before those incidents occurred. Sauter placed 9th in the opening Kansas race and honestly over the last 4-5 races; the #13 team has been about a 10th place truck. I believe that provides fade potential especially when you consider how Sauter’s teammates have performed relatively well in recent weeks. I would nearly be willing to bet against Sauter with any of the Thorsport Racing teammates and will look for the most advantageous match-up against the #13 for my betting card Friday night.

Fantasy Options

John Hunter Nemechek will be making his 3rd start of the season for NEMCO Motorsports. The full-time Cup Series driver has posted finishes of 25th and 6th. Nemechek is currently listed as the highest price driver at $11,100 tomorrow night because he will be starting from the 34th position. Though I believe Nemechek’s ceiling is limited due to the fact I don’t think he will be competing for the win or dominator points, he still has value based on the starting position alone. Among the favorites, my favorite fantasy anchors include Austin Hill and Brett Mofitt. However, I believe the better fantasy value includes both Stewart Friesen ($9,100) and Ben Rhodes ($8,100).

Friesen has started to run better in recent weeks after struggling at the beginning of the year with the new (in-house) team and transition to Toyota. From the 21st starting, Friesen can be considered a quality play. Additionally, I mentioned my high expectations for Ben Rhodes earlier and believe he is one of the best value plays on the board this week at just $8,100. If Rhodes delivers, he could yield top-tier results at a value price. A few bargain sleepers that I have on my radar this week include both Tate Fogleman ($6,200) and Tyler Hill ($4,900). Both drivers are cheaply priced with some upside. The #02 team had a great run at Michigan last year with Tyler Dippel. Fogleman has been steadily improving and this should be an opportunity for the #02 team to have a decent run. Lastly, Tyler Hill is my least priced flier option at just $4,900. Hill will be starting at the back after posting top 20 finishes in 2 of his last 3 starts and just may yield the salary relief to build a strong fantasy lineup.

Draftkings 2020 Henry Ford Health System 200 Optimal Lineup

2020 Henry Ford Health System 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Brett Moffitt +700 (1 unit)
Zane Smith +1000 (1 unit)
Matt Crafton +1300 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +1300 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1600 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Grant Enfinger +100 over Chandler Smith
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

Austin Hill -155 over Christian Eckes (2 units)
Matt Crafton -115 over Chandler Smith (2 units)
Ben Rhodes -105 over Johnny Sauter (2 units)