2020 Hall of Fame 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Friday October 30th, 8:00PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series has just one race remaining to decide the championship 4 and the drivers that will have the opportunity to battle for the series title next week at Phoenix. GMS Racing teammates Brett Moffitt and Sheldon Creed have already secured their championship bids following wins at Kansas and Texas. On Friday, the fight for the final two playoff spots will intensify when the Truck Series waves the green flag for the Hall of Fame 200 at Martinsville Speedway. Unlike Cup Series teams that competed at Martinsville back in March, this will be the Truck Series’ first start on the half-mile paperclip this season!

From a betting standpoint, this Friday night’s Hall of Fame 200 is an intriguing race unlike any other the series has competed at this season. The closest track comparison the Truck Series has raced at this season is perhaps Gateway and that is not really a close comparison. A few drivers like Zane Smith, Sam Mayer, and Trevor Bayne will be making their first career starts at Martinsville in the Truck Series. Fortunately from a handicapping standpoint, the rest of the Truck Series regulars have multiple starts at Martinsville and we will look towards that data along with other comparable tracks to compile our expectations baseline for Friday night’s race!

Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Johnny Sauter	113.4	6.8	4.4	8.2	6.0	40	82	150	181	1149
Ben Rhodes	109.9	8.0	8.2	5.8	6.8	14	95	71	134	1150
Brett Moffitt	103.7	8.5	5.3	2.8	7.3	48	105	50	0	950
Matt Crafton	100.0	5.2	6.8	9.2	6.8	-5	99	55	106	1150
Todd Gilliland	97.0	8.6	7.8	12.2	7.4	12	148	58	40	1150
Stewart Friesen	94.7	5.8	12.6	9.4	10.8	12	89	44	42	1148
Grant Enfinger	87.0	12.6	13.0	8.8	11.2	46	101	31	0	1150
Austin Hill	71.7	12.6	14.0	15.4	13.6	-17	91	7	10	1150
Raphael Lessard	70.7	7.0	16.0	14.0	14.0	-12	16	0	0	500
Sheldon Creed	67.2	7.7	11.0	17.7	13.3	-29	76	2	0	700
Derek Kraus	64.3	11.0	19.0	18.0	17.0	-8	20	2	0	500
Tyler Ankrum	61.0	15.7	16.0	18.7	16.3	-20	35	2	0	700
Spencer Davis	51.7	24.0	22.0	20.0	22.0	12	0	4	0	498
Timmy Hill	51.3	23.0	20.0	21.0	21.0	-6	0	4	0	498
Dawson Cram	49.3	25.5	21.5	20.5	21.5	3	9	0	0	449
Austin Wayne Self	42.4	25.0	21.3	26.3	23.3	-39	3	3	0	425
Jordan Anderson	39.8	27.4	24.8	24.8	24.4	-9	1	0	0	1137
Norm Benning	29.8	30.5	29.0	29.0	28.5	3	0	0	0	188
Jennifer Jo Cobb	27.7	31.0	29.0	28.7	28.7	-2	0	0	0	352

I compiled loop data stats for the last 5 races at Martinsville in the Truck Series to provide a baseline of the drivers that have performed well at this unique flat half-mile paperclip. Obviously the loop data does not capture drivers with less than 2 starts which means the data will not be useful for drivers like Zane Smith, Sam Mayer, and others. For the drivers with multiple Martinsville starts, Johnny Sauter tops the list with an average rating of 113.4. Sauter’s performance throughout 2020 has been awful but I will say the #13 truck has shown decent speed in recent races despite the bad finishes. Further down the list, the guy that stands out to me personally is Brett Moffitt. Moffitt crashed out in this race last year. However before that race, the former champion had finishes of 6th, 3rd, 2nd, and 3rd in his 4 prior starts at Martinsville. I think the timing of this Martinsville races matches up well with Moffitt and the #23 team that have been posting their best performances of the year in recent weeks.

Obviously loop data does not tell the entire story and should only be given partial consideration. Sheldon Creed has a dismal 67.2 average rating in his 3 Truck Series starts at Martinsville but he has been the hottest driver in the series over the last several weeks. I would bet that Creed will be among the frontrunners again Friday. The guys that do not show up on this loop data list deserve to be in the conversation as well. Brandon Jones will be stepping into the #51 truck this weekend and while he has prior experience in the trucks at Martinsville, he has never been overly impressive. Add to the fact that Xfinity Series teams do not regularly compete at Martinsville and I’m not sure there is much value in Jones’ current betting odds. Zane Smith and Sam Mayer do not have experience at Martinsville however both drivers have proved to have legitimate short-track skills. Mayer had the most surprising win of the season back at Bristol and I would be cautiously optimistic the #24 team has another strong run especially with the current momentum of the GMS Racing stable.

Betting Targets

I alluded to Brett Moffitt’s success at Martinsville earlier and I love his short-track resume combined with his current momentum. The GMS Racing stable has been on fire in recent weeks and while I understand this is a completely different type of track that is not dependent on aero speed; I still believe the momentum will continue with the GMS Racing trucks. If that holds true, Moffitt tops the list as the most likely candidate to hit pay dirt. I will also put Zane Smith into that upper echelon category. Smith first caught my attention with his impressive short-track skills in the Xfinity Series and his talent can overcome the lack of Martinsville experience because he has raced on many similar surfaces through his career. Smith is obviously a slightly more risky option but I am confident in his skill set.

For deeper options, I actually believe Johnny Sauter deserves some attention. I know the #13 truck has been terrible in terms of finishes this season. Still, the team has speed and a great driver for this type of racing. Sauter makes most plausible sense as a H2H betting option this week if he can shake off the curse of bad finishes. Meanwhile, both Ben Rhodes and Sam Mayer are additional H2H targets that I have reserved optimism. If you notice in the loop data stats above, Rhodes has the 2nd most fastest laps (71) behind Sauter among the drivers with multiple Martinsville starts. Meanwhile, Sam Mayer is just a driver that I believe is vastly underrated from a skill set standpoint. I had Mayer as my value play in fantasy for Bristol and foolishly left him off of my betting card. I look to capitalize on the youngster’s return to the Truck Series this week in the form of H2H match-ups.

Drivers to Fade

The driver that tops my fade list this week is Austin Hill whose odds have slipped to 18 to 1 this week despite being a nearly weekly favorite. I have made the comment a few times this season that Hill is not exactly known for his short-track talent and I stand by that statement even while acknowledging he has improved. Still, there is a legitimate reason Hill’s odds are vastly improved this week but don’t get suckered into the value. Additional fade options, albeit more risky, include both Kyle Busch Motorsports drivers in Christian Eckes and Brandon Jones. I touched on Jones slightly above but Eckes also fits into the category of drivers that typically don’t perform well at this style of racing. Obviously the equipment and name brand will keep both drivers relevant in terms of betting odds. However, I don’t expect either drivers to be serious contenders for the win.

2020 Hall of Fame 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Hall of Fame 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Odds couresty of Bovada

Brett Moffitt +375 (1.5 units)
Todd Gilliland +2000 (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +1200 (.5 unit)
Ben Rhodes +1200 (.5 unit)
Johnny Sauter +1300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Zane Smith -130 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Stewart Friesen -125 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)
Johnny Sauter +400 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Ben Rhodes +350 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)