2020 Go Bowling 235 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 16th, 2020 3:24PM EST at Daytona International Speedway Road Course
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

For the first time in Cup Series history, drivers will compete on the road course at Daytona International Speedway when the green flag waves for the Go Bowling 235 on Sunday. A brand new course, no practices, and the threat of rain in the forecast, what could possibly go wrong? With so much uncertainty entailing tomorrow’s race, it’s time to analyze and breakdown some of our expectations for the first road course race at the beach. Take a look as we provide our 2020 Go Bowling 235 race picks for Daytona!

Earlier this week, I provided a Preview of the Daytona Road Course where I provided an overview of Daytona’s 3.61 mile road course. If you want to learn more about the layout, I encourage you to take a moment to read over that preview. In short, I believe Daytona’s road course most closely resembles the ROVAL at Charlotte. Despite not having any prior races or practice data to observe for handicapping purposes, I believe the ROVAL is our best handicapping comparison for tomorrow’s Go Bowling 235. Obviously there are some differences in Daytona’s layout but it is the best comparison of tracks currently on the Cup Series schedule.

I am going to keep this preview straightforward. We do not have any prior loop data or observable information that is directly tied to the Daytona road course. We do have general road course statistics that I am taking into account and I am giving a bit more credit to the recent races run at the ROVAL for a baseline of expectations. For betting picks, I have been patiently waiting to get a better idea of the weather forecast for Sunday. Rain has impacted both ARCA and Xfinity Series races over the last two days and could come into play again on Sunday. If lightning is not present, Cup Series teams will race on Sunday with rain tires at their disposal if needed and that greatly impacts our betting selections because the difference between normal (dry) and rainy conditions can be monumental. Therefore, more plays will likely be released closer to race time this week as I keep a sharp eye on the radar this week.

Betting Strategy

I have made it pretty clear that this week’s betting strategy will be conservative and perhaps we should be even more conservative with the uncertain weather conditions. However, I did jump on a few H2H plays once opening odds were released this week. I was not planning to expose 5 units worth of match-ups so early but I really liked those opening plays involving Elliott (-140) over Hamlin and Bell (-115) over Newman. Both of those drivers are considerably better road course talents over their opponents if they can stay out of trouble.

Judging by betting odds, I really believe the H2H match-ups provide the most value this week. Odds to win the Go Bowling 235 are overvalued for the majority of drivers especially when you consider the circumstances of this being the first race without a single lap of practice. Despite the circumstances, we still have 6 drivers currently listed at less than 10 to 1 odds which is simply incomprehensible. Therefore, win bets will be downsized this week as the major focus turns towards H2H match-ups as our most reasonable path to profits!

Drivers to Target

I believe Martin Truex and Chase Elliott are undoubtedly the best road course drivers in the Cup Series. Both Truex and Elliott have scored 3 wins each since the start of 2017. No other drive has scored more than one victory since that same starting point. The only other driver that deserves the same amount of respect at road courses is the driver of the #18, Kyle Busch. Rowdy has 4 career victories on the road courses but the last of those victories came nearly 5 years ago at Sonoma. If we use the ROVAL comparison that I have preached this week, Truex was in position to win the inaugural ROVAL race before getting taken out on the last lap by Jimmie Johnson. Then last year, Chase Elliott wrecked while leading and drove back through the field to win the 2nd race at the ROVAL. Therefore, I cannot find any deserving favorite more than the #19 and #9 cars this week.

Since this layout at Daytona requires more speed than the ROVAL, I believe Kevin Harvick’s status can be maintained as a legitimate contender this week. Harvick has consistently been a frontrunner at the road course venues in recent years. More importantly Harvick’s odds have improved since opening and currently stand at near 8 to 1 odds. If those odds happen to near the 10 to 1 range, it would be hard to ignore the value on the #4 car. Speaking of value in terms of win odds, I also believe Brad Keselowski has some undeniable value at 14 to 1 odds. Keselowski does not have any wins at the road course venues but that factor is misleading because he normally runs strong at these layouts.

Since this race is rather unpredictable, I would rather speak to drivers that I expect to run well that may be used in H2H match-ups rather than saying someone should be contending for a victory. With that being said, Clint Bowyer and Jimmie Johnson are two names that could provide sharp H2H potential this week. Both Johnson and Bowyer are having subpar seasons despite both teams showing speed at different portions of the year. However, this weekend’s race at the road course provides a perfect opportunity to shrug off the oval struggles. Johnson nearly won the inaugural ROVAL race and Bowyer owns the 2nd best average finishing position (11.7) among active drivers behind Chase Elliott. I personally like both drivers as potential H2H targets with my preference leaning towards the #14.

*I am adding another driver to the list on Sunday as a potential sharp H2H play. Austin Dillon tested positive for COVID-19 early Saturday and will miss the Go Bowling 235. Kaz Grala will step into the #3 car to make his 1st career start in the Cup Series. Normally this would be a situation to avoid but Grala is a really solid road course driver. Grala actually posted a 4th place finish at Road America last week in just his 2nd start of the season. Obviously the competition is significantly greater this week but if we can find Grala paired against a bottom-tier driver, he may provide sharp value.

Drivers to Fade

One of the top drivers that I have on my fade list for Sunday includes the #11 of Denny Hamlin. Hamlin is having one of the best seasons of his career and while he has improved at the road course venues, he is still not nearly as talented as the drivers he is paired against in the form of H2H match-ups. Hamlin posted a combined 66.9 average driver rating through the first two ROVAL races which ranks 17th in the Cup Series. Even if he improves that number, he is still outclassed by guys like Elliott, Truex, and Harvick that surround him in nearly all match-ups.

Another driver I will add to the list to fade on Sunday includes Bubba Wallace. Wallace is one of the worst road course drivers in the Cup Series. Nothing against Wallace but his experience never dealt with these layouts which has been evident in each stop at the road courses. In 6 career starts, Wallace’s best finish is 24th which was last September at the ROVAL. On the heels of a few decent runs in recent weeks, perhaps Wallace’s value will be exaggerated by odds-makers. If that happens, I will be waiting to fade the #43.

Fantasy Targets

For fantasy anchors, I remain convinced that Elliott and Truex are the best options this week. However, Brad Keselowski is an excellent pivot option among the favorites from the 17th starting position with a potentially equal ceiling. One thing to remember for tomorrow’s race that is extremely important towards fantasy rosters is the fact that due to the amount of laps (65), dominator points are limited and that means place-differential has more effective value.

I mentioned above several of the drivers that I expect to run well among the top tier talents. Without repeating myself, I just want to list a few different drivers that yield fantasy value based on asking price and overall potential. The following group of drivers are cheaper options but present a lot of value which you can use to build fantasy lineups around. For starters, Michael McDowell is an excellent road course driver with a rather cheap price tag ($7,000) that will be starting towards the rear. Similar notions can be stated for both Daniel Suarez ($6,900) and John Hunter Nemechek ($6,400) who are starting around the same spots.

For the intermediate range drivers, again I like the potential of Clint Bowyer ($8,800) and Jimmie Johnson ($8,100). Cheaper options with more risk include both Christopher Bell ($7,200) and Kaz Grala ($6,000) who have both shown solid road course racing skills in Xfinity Series competition. For fantasy players that submit multiple lineups with variance, do not be afraid to leave salary money on the table this week. Place differential is the best angle for ensuring profits!

Draftkings Go Bowling 235 Optimal Lineup

2020 Go Bowling 235 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1000 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1400 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2500 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2500 (.5 unit) *early play
Jimmie Johnson +3300 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Noah Gragson +100 over Justin Allgaier (win)
Martin Truex Jr +530 wins Go Bowling 235
Risking 1 unit to win: +1160

Chase Elliott +440 wins Go Bowling 235
Matt Kenseth +115 over Chris Buescher
Risking 1 unit to win: +1060

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Elliott -140 over Denny Hamlin (3 units) *early play
Jimmie Johnson -115 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Christopher Bell -115 over Ryan Newman (2 units) *early play
Christopher Bell +1500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)