2020 GEICO 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday June 21st, 3:20PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s Cup Series will take on the “biggest and baddest”track of them all at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday with the running of the GEICO 500. The 2.66 mile oval located in the heart of Alabama has become the epicenter of superspeedway racing producing fast speeds, bumper to bumper intense racing action, and often huge multi-car wrecks. The unpredictable nature of this style of racing produces something else for bettors by virtue of extremely opportunistic betting odds including the possibility of huge underdog winners. As we prepare for 500 miles at Talladega, we take the time to discuss the drivers that are worthy of betting consideration and a few big underdogs as we present our 2020 GEICO 500 race picks!

Following Ryan Newman’s frightening crash on the last lap of the Daytona 500, NASCAR announced that a new superspeedway package will be utilized on Sunday in efforts to reduce overall horsepower. Among many safety enhancements, the primary performance change will be geared towards the tapered spacers that limit air flow to the engine which should result in a reduction of about 30-40 horsepower as opposed to the previous 550 horsepower package that was utilized at Daytona. The overall speed changes will likely be marginalized with the biggest goal focused on limiting the huge momentum (runs) cars produced when hooked up in the draft at Daytona. Otherwise, racing should be ideally similar to what we have witnessed in recent events at the superspeedways.

Obviously superspeedway racing is a different type of animal both in the realm of racing and also by virtue of betting. Because these races are so unpredictable by nature, it is impossible to rely on true handicapping angles that we utilize for most NASCAR races. The draft brings elite parity at superspeedway tracks which means anybody can win if they are in the right position in the closing laps. For that reason, our bets this week are not necessarily always focused on the best drivers/cars but rather the best betting plays based around probability and value.

Talladega Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Joey Logano	111.3	10.0	9.4	5.0	8.0	15	908	23	182	945
Kurt Busch	100.2	9.0	10.0	15.0	10.8	105	974	31	132	921
Chase Elliott	95.7	4.8	9.0	11.8	10.8	105	1018	25	89	938
Ryan Blaney	94.7	13.4	7.6	16.2	9.6	-8	1101	23	72	934
Brad Keselowski	91.3	8.8	6.6	19.8	11.4	-48	1034	23	81	916
Aric Almirola	91.1	15.4	10.2	5.2	13.0	-53	950	18	31	945
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	89.6	7.4	11.2	13.6	13.2	-11	1085	22	58	927
Kyle Busch	88.0	18.4	12.4	19.0	11.8	36	1363	23	16	928
Alex Bowman	87.3	7.3	10.0	20.0	13.8	31	730	14	34	673
William Byron	78.6	13.3	13.8	25.8	14.0	-63	639	16	32	708
Jimmie Johnson	77.9	11.0	19.6	22.8	20.6	19	744	15	2	836
Kevin Harvick	77.8	12.0	16.4	21.4	16.8	44	674	23	58	756
Daniel Suarez	77.1	15.2	13.4	17.0	14.2	-46	1105	26	12	921
Denny Hamlin	76.6	18.4	16.8	12.6	17.6	40	767	23	15	837
Ty Dillon	74.5	23.4	17.8	13.6	18.0	-31	600	22	7	945
Austin Dillon	72.3	16.8	17.6	20.2	17.6	-35	678	21	1	905
Ryan Newman	72.0	20.8	18.6	9.0	22.2	73	317	30	6	945
Clint Bowyer	72.0	5.6	14.0	24.0	19.2	-25	554	26	13	881
Martin Truex Jr	70.4	14.6	20.0	23.6	21.0	12	664	16	11	918
Ryan Preece	69.1	30.0	23.5	10.5	23.5	56	106	8	0	376
Erik Jones	64.8	16.4	27.4	27.2	22.2	1	655	15	5	640
Matt DiBendetto	64.4	29.8	22.4	28.2	19.4	12	553	23	21	913
Chris Buescher	63.2	26.6	24.0	19.8	20.8	4	544	10	2	931
Corey LaJoie	59.0	36.3	29.7	16.7	27.0	25	35	8	0	567
Bubba Wallace	55.7	21.8	26.3	24.5	24.8	-29	233	14	6	576
Michael McDowell	53.8	19.4	24.0	29.4	25.6	-13	579	21	0	689
Joey Gase	43.4	36.0	28.8	28.3	29.0	-75	50	12	0	696

The importance of loop data statistics obviously regresses this week at Talladega. To win at the superspeedway races, the main objectives are survival and being in position for a victory in the closing laps. I utilize the loop data stats listed above mainly as a beacon to show which drivers have routinely emerged at the front at Talladega in recent races and therefore have the best chance of being in position for victory on the final lap. Even with that said, the “Big One” could strike at any moment at Talladega and wipe out 20-25 cars including the majority of both fantasy and betting lineups. Because the risk is steep, betting picks should be diversified and produce sufficient ROI for every bet.

With those things in mind, there are a few things we can learn from the loop data listed above. For starters, all 3 of the Team Penske drivers are listed in the top 5 with Joey Logano ranked #1 with an average rating of 111.3. Both Logano and Brad Keselowski have easily been the best two drivers at Talladega with 5 wins in the last 11 races. Keselowski actually leads all active drivers with 5 career Dega victories and teammate Ryan Blaney won the most recent race at Talladega last fall. Therefore, Team Penske drivers deserve “favorite” status this weekend especially when you consider the fact that Fords have won 9 of the last 10 races at Talladega.

Other notable callouts from our loop data include Kurt Busch who ranks 2nd on our list this week. The elder Busch has never won at Talladega in 38 career starts but has been very close in recent years with over 100 laps led in the last 3 events. Chase Elliott is the defending winner of the GEICO 500 at #2 in our loop data. Elliott has become a weekly favorite in the Cup Series and will likely remain so this weekend. Moving down our list, Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr have produced ratings which should not be very surprising. Both Almirola (2018) and Stenhouse (2017) are former winners at Talladega with solid superspeedway skills.

Perhaps some of the most important pieces to our loop data this week is those drivers that have not been impressive at Talladega. Denny Hamlin has been completely dominant at Daytona but has led just 15 laps in the last 5 races at Talladega. Meanwhile, guys like Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr have sub 80 average ratings. I am not a fan of H2H match-ups at superspeedway events but if I had to choose a driver to fade this week it would be Martin Truex Jr. It should be no secret by now that superspeedway racing is not one of Truex’s strengths. However even drivers that routinely struggle at this style of racing are still able to produce good finishes from time to time. For Truex, he has just 2 top 5 finishes in 30 career starts at Talladega. Most surprisingly, Truex has failed to finish inside the top 20 in the last 7 straight races at Talladega. For whatever reason, Talladega and Truex just don’t get along which is something to keep in mind moving into Sunday.

Favorites Breakdown

I mentioned in the Xfinity Series preview that superspeedway races often pique our betting interest due to the possibility of huge underdog winners. While it’s true that anyone can win this week, the reality is that the winners are often among the best superspeedway talents which is why you have seen the likes of Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Chase Elliott run upfront so often in recent years. The reason I mention this factor is that I don’t want our betting lineups to be solely focused on the underdogs. We definitely need a few underdogs on our lineup but history tells us the top-tier drivers are typically the group that produces winners.

If things do not get too chaotic, I believe we have to list the Team Penske cars at the top of our “target” list this week. Keselowski and Logano have been great this year and both are ridiculously good at Talladega. Ryan Blaney is overdue for a win based on his “speed” in 2020 thus far. Additionally, Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse remain solid intermediate betting options. I jumped on Almirola at 22 to 1 odds at openers. Stenhouse is currently listed at around 15 to 1 odds at most books. I would personally wait/hope for a better number on Stenhouse but he should definitely be a factor.

Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott deserve their status as “favorites” no matter what anyone decides as two of the top superspeedway talents. Meanwhile more drivers in the intermediate range at 12-18 to 1 odds includes guys like Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, and Clint Bowyer who I believe should be avoided. Simply put, the win percentages for those drivers do not accommodate their current betting odds at the superspeedway tracks and I will not have any of those guys on my roster this week.

GEICO 500 Dark Horses

Outside the top 10-15 cars, the part of this race that really intrigues my betting interest is the dark horses or underdogs. I believe we have several this week across different ranges of the dark horse spectrum. One of my favorite dark horses includes William Byron at 30 to 1 odds. I know the stats may not shed light on Byron’s superspeedway skills but that is often because of bad finishes. Byron has been really impressive in his short career at superspeedway tracks and I think it is a matter of time before he is battling for a victory in one of these races. Another underrated superspeedway driver is that of Chris Buescher currently listed at 66 to 1 odds. Admittedly, Buescher has been better at Daytona where he has recorded top 5 finishes in 3 of his last 5 starts. He has not been nearly as good statistically at Talladega but that is mainly a product of misfortune.

For deeper dark horses and lottery style options, John Hunter Nemechek and Corey LaJoie may be low risk options. John Hunter Nemechek finished 11th back at Daytona and has largely outperformed expectations this season. Front Row Motorsports delivered one of the biggest underdog wins in Talladega history in 2013 with David Ragan at odds north of 100 to 1. Perhaps John Hunter can restore the Talladega magic. Currently, John Hunter is listed at 55 to 1 odds but I assume that will get much better closer to race time especially if you shop around. Lastly, Corey LaJoie is another vastly underrated superspeedway driver with some quality results. Obviously, LaJoie is driving bottom-tier equipment and would probably need some attrition to improve his chances. Still at 100 to 1 odds or better, a small play may be worth consideration.

2020 GEICO 500 Optimal Lineup

Fantasy line-ups for Talladega are based purely on potential. I actually advise avoiding fantasy entries and H2H match-ups this week based on the unpredictable nature of this style of racing. If you are an action fantasy junky, target place-differential potential because if we have the “Big One” most lineups will have a driver or multiple drivers that are involved in wrecks! If we are managing rosters based on poor starting positions, it protects us from huge single driver losses. Additionally if we happen to nail a line-up that avoids any misfortune, it could be really profitable as well.

2020 GEICO 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +1150 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +1400 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +1700 (.75 unit) *early play
Aric Almirola +2200 (.5 unit) *early play
William Byron +3000 (.5 unit) *early play
Chris Buescher +6000 (.25 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +6600 (.25 unit) Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Corey LaJoie +10000 (.25 unit) Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Two Team Parlay

Brad Keselowski/Joey Logano/Ryan Blaney +260 wins GEICO 500
Ryan Newman +135 over Aric Almirola
Risking 1.25 units to win: +930