NASCAR Truck Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 30th, 2020 12:10PM EST at WWT Raceway at Gateway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com
The Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series will take center stage on Sunday afternoon with the running of the Gateway 200 presented by CK Power at Gateway. While Xfinity and Cup Series teams competed at Daytona over the weekend, the Truck Series joined the NTT IndyCar Series for a rare double header. Sunday’s race marks just the 2nd time this season the Truck Series has competed at a track less than 1.5 mile in length and the 2nd straight going back to last week’s race at Dover. We will breakdown what it takes to get around Gateway and provide our 2020 Gateway 200 race picks!
WWT Raceway at Gateway is a very unique track. The 1.25 mile layout has two completely different corners that have some resemblance to Darlington’s egg shaped 1.25 mile surface. However, the banking is extremely flat which draws comparisons to racing at tracks like New Hampshire and Phoenix. Oddly enough, there are no former winners in the field competing this Sunday’s which is rare across any of NASCAR’s touring series. Both Justin Haley (2018) and Ross Chastain (2019) captured the two most recent Truck Series wins at Gateway but both drivers have graduated to Xfinity Series competition.
When you look back through the history at Gateway in the Truck Series, you start to notice that the most talented drivers have typically pulled out the victory in this race. The last 5 winners include Ross Chastain, Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek, Christopher Bell, and Cole Custer who are all emerging talents in NASCAR’s upper series. Additionally, the one thing all those drivers have in common is they have all shown strengths on the flat tracks. Therefore, our handicapping focus will be geared to the overall best talents especially those that have shown success previously on flatter surfaces.
Drivers to Target
In my strong opinion, Austin Hill, Zane Smith, and Sheldon Creed are likely the 3 best raw talents behind the wheel in the Truck Series. The jury may be still out on Creed. However, Hill and Smith have clearly emerged as the best duo in the series. Smith captured his 2nd win of the season last week at Dover. Both victories have come within the last 3 races and the rookie appears to be getting better with each start. Meanwhile, Hill captured a win earlier this year at Kansas and despite never being a great short-track driver; Hill was strong last week at Dover which potentially elevates his stock this week.
When I narrow down all the factors for talent, driving style, and experience, I have a short group of favorites that includes Zane Smith, Christian Eckes, and Grant Enfinger. Eckes and Enfinger may be slightly surprising favorites. From a betting standpoint, Eckes is always among the favorites which is confusing because he is still winless in his Truck Series career. Nevertheless, Eckes has a solid skill set for this style of racing and he has looked really strong in prior competition at Gateway. In Eckes 2nd career start, he led 34 laps before he was involved in an accident. Then last year, Eckes led a race high 57 which remains the highest mark of his career. Obviously I believe Eckes is typically overvalued but this may be one of the rare weeks where he can actually get the job done.
Grant Enfinger and Johnny Sauter are my favorite dark horses this week in all formats. Enfinger has excelled on the flatter surfaces in recent years. Enfinger is quietly having an excellent season with 2 victories which is the most of his 8 year career. More importantly the #98 team has been running really well and Thorsport Racing in general has been really solid in recent weeks. I expect Enfinger will be among the frontrunners on Sunday and his current betting odds provide solid return. For Johnny Sauter, he is desperately in need of a win and Gateway provides a realistic option. In 7 career starts at Gateway, Sauter has finished in the top 4 in all 7 starts. For that reason, I would list Sauter as a live dog this week. Lastly in terms of H2H match-ups, I would list Enfinger, Sauter, and Friesen towards the top of my targets list for H2H bets as well. Friesen has quietly turned things around in the #52 truck and is really good at these particular layouts. Friesen’s H2H value has dropped this season and this is the perfect race to take advantage of his match-ups against mediocre competition.
Drivers to Fade
Chandler Smith has been at the top of my fade list for the last several weeks and he will remain there until it loses money. After showing so much promise in 2019 in a limited role with Kyle Busch Motorsports, Smith’s 2020 campaign has been the exact opposite with 3 starts resulting in a best finish of 20th last week at Dover. For some reason, Smith continues to be listed among the favorites and I simply do not believe the talent matches the equipment. Therefore, I will continue to fade Smith with complete confidence until I see changes. Lastly, I also believe Zane Smith will be fade worthy among the favorites this week. I know Smith is on a semi-hot streak at the moment but he has just 1 career start at Gateway which came in an ARCA car. This track favors experience and I just can’t see Zane picking up where he left off at Dover. If you can get plus money in match-ups against the #21, we should likely take advantage because he is being overvalued this week especially with the P1 starting position.
Draftkings Gateway 200 Optimal Lineup
2020 Gateway 200 Race Picks
*Final* Christian Eckes +450 (1.5 units)
Grant Enfinger +1400 (1 unit)
Johnny Sauter +1600 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +4800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups
Stewart Friesen -140 over Raphael Lessard (3 units)
Johnny Sauter -125 over Todd Gilliland (2 units)
Grant Enfinger -150 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)
Christian Eckes +125 over Zane Smith (2 units)