2020 Food City 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday May 31st, 3:18PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After rain postponed Wednesday’s Alsco Uniforms 500K into Thursday night, NASCAR’s Cup Series embraces another quick turnaround on Sunday when the series visits Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Food City 500. This past Thursday, Chase Elliott was the latest Cup Series driver to etch his name into the winning column with a victory at Charlotte. However, Sunday’s race at Bristol will likely provide another driver their first chance at victory. Without practices and on-track time prior to recent races, we have seen unprecedented parity at NASCAR’s highest level. Throughout both Charlotte races underdog drivers like Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Ricky Stenhouse, and Austin Dillon all scored top 10 finishes. Each week, we are seeing surprises at the front of the field in this new format and Bristol’s half-mile bullring provides the perfect opportunity for an underdog to score the upset on Sunday. Take a look as we provide a few betting longshots and our best bets with our 2020 Food City 500 race picks for Bristol!

Before we move further towards discussing Bristol trends and drivers that could contend for a victory on Sunday, let’s first point out the fact that this is just the 2nd race this season under the new short track rules package. For those unaware, NASCAR made changes to the rules package on the smaller tracks this year to help provide better racing. The changes included reduced downforce by a shorter rear spoiler, reduced front splitter measurements, and alterations to the vertical fencing on the radiator pan. The same package was used back at Phoenix in early March. In that race, Chase Elliott (93) and Kevin Harvick (67) led the majority of the early laps before Team Penske took over down the stretch with both Brad Keselowski (82) and Joey Logano (60) leading the majority of the closing laps. Logano scored the victory in a race that seemed to favor Ford manufacturers.

Obviously, Bristol is a completely different type of track setup compared to Phoenix. Still, it is worth remembering how teams performed under the same rules package in the 1st attempt this season. As we move to the fast, high-banked, half-mile at Bristol on Sunday, we need to ensure we are targeting drivers that are trending in the right direction. I have been a huge proponent for the Hendrick Motorsports cars in the last few races. Chase Elliott finally scored an overdue victory for Hendrick Motorsports on Thursday but I was extremely impressed with all of the Chevrolet powered cars at Charlotte. Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, and Ricky Stenhouse were all frontrunners throughout Thursday’s Alsco 500K despite having somewhat inferior equipment which proves Chevrolet has their mojo back. With more surprise names getting into the mix each week, it is only a matter of time before we see a big underdog style victory. As a result, we need to make sure we are rostering a few long shots each week especially at tracks like Bristol where track position can be so important to help a driver pull off a surprise victory.

Bristol Betting Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	113.6	14.0	7.8	5.4	9.2	66	263	374	2497
Ryan Blaney	104.3	8.0	13.8	13.2	5.4	16	113	379	2116
Joey Logano	100.4	11.0	11.2	9.0	9.8	11	108	242	2497
Denny Hamlin	97.2	9.0	11.4	7.4	10.8	9	76	90	2499
Clint Bowyer	96.5	13.4	10.4	9.4	9.2	19	98	144	2499
Chase Elliott	95.0	5.8	12.6	13.2	11.4	23	110	185	2472
Erik Jones	94.2	8.2	12.2	15.8	11.2	-50	130	293	2486
Kurt Busch	91.8	13.4	10.6	7.8	11.6	55	66	33	2495
Jimmie Johnson	89.6	18.2	9.6	10.4	12.2	71	59	0	2496
Kevin Harvick	89.5	19.0	17.0	15.4	15.8	69	201	36	2244
Brad Keselowski	83.7	11.2	13.0	17.8	13.6	-28	116	198	2486
Ryan Newman	83.3	18.4	8.2	9.6	12.6	7	16	2	2499
Alex Bowman	82.8	13.5	15.0	12.8	15.3	-1	33	0	1994
Daniel Suarez	82.1	16.6	10.6	12.0	13.4	24	33	5	2498
Martin Truex Jr	80.3	15.0	19.4	22.2	16.6	-1	116	52	2385
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	72.5	12.8	20.0	21.6	19.4	53	86	0	2281
Matt DiBenedetto	71.9	23.0	18.8	16.6	18.0	27	33	93	2489
Austin Dillon	66.0	17.8	22.8	23.0	20.2	-27	12	0	2116
William Byron	64.8	9.8	14.5	19.5	17.8	-14	5	0	1990
Chris Buescher	62.5	23.8	22.2	24.2	19.6	6	32	0	2106
Aric Almirola	60.0	13.2	24.0	28.0	24.2	-51	40	2	1803
Ty Dillon	56.2	26.8	23.4	24.0	23.4	1	5	6	2361
Bubba Wallace	55.1	24.3	21.0	22.0	22.0	17	2	6	1499
Ryan Preece	52.2	26.5	27.0	21.5	25.0	25	1	0	993
Corey LaJoie	42.3	31.4	27.6	29.0	28.6	-38	1	0	2025
Michael McDowell	39.8	22.4	29.6	32.0	28.6	-38	0	0	1379
J.J. Yeley	39.4	33.3	29.3	30.0	30.0	-9	1	0	1401
Gray Gaulding	34.6	34.0	36.0	34.5	34.3	-27	0	0	1079
Timmy Hill	34.1	36.0	32.5	31.5	32.5	-9	0	0	720
B.J. McLeod	32.3	34.5	36.5	32.0	35.0	-3	1	0	892
Quin Houff	30.5	35.0	34.5	31.0	34.0	6	2	0	954

Nobody needs to look at loop data to know that Kyle Busch is the undisputed king of Bristol. Rowdy has won 3 of the last 5 races and has racked up 8 career victories at Bristol in the Cup Series. Even with Toyota struggling in the last few races, Rowdy can never be counted out at Bristol and deserves favorite status. Alongside Kyle Busch, older brother Kurt Busch should also be given similar respect with 6 career victories. Kurt Busch won the NRA Bristol Night Race as recently as 2018 and has posted top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 5 races at Bristol. Therefore, the Busch brothers are never a bad bet at Thunder Valley. From a loop data standpoint, Kyle Busch leads all drivers with a solid 113.6 rating over the last 5 races. Meanwhile Ryan Blaney (104.3) and Joey Logano (100.4) are the only other two drivers that have averaged 100 plus ratings. As stated before, Logano won at Phoenix where the new short-track rules package debuted and all of the Team Penske Fords looked pretty strong in that race. Therefore, perhaps Blaney and Logano should be given extra consideration this week with those things in mind.

Aside from the upper echelon of drivers, there is a huge group of drivers with average ratings in the mid-80s to upper 90s that could easily battle for a victory. Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski are nearly weekly favorites based on 2020 performance trends. Hamlin’s 2nd place effort on Thursday went largely unnoticed which seems weird to me. Not only is Hamlin the only Toyota driver to win a race this year but he has two wins on the season. Going back to the end of 2019, Hamlin has arguably been the best performing driver in the series and is the most recent winner at Bristol going back to the 2019 Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race. Therefore, I feel like Hamlin deserves a lot of respect going into this Sunday’s event despite what the ratings/averages may suggest.

A few other important callouts from our loop data includes Clint Bowyer who has posted a 96.5 average rating. Bowyer has produced solid results at Bristol throughout his career despite 0 wins. Bowyer has finished 8th or better in his last 4 Bristol starts and led 120 laps in the 2018 Night Race. I am not advocating Bowyer as a potential long shot but simply pointing out the fact this is a place where he seems to perform above his average. Also, Erik Jones is another name that is listed pretty high on this list. Jones’ performance throughout all 6 career Bristol races has been hit or miss. However, he has posted two quality runs including a near victory as a rookie in 2017. Lastly, a couple of items that may not show up on the loop data sheet include Matt Kenseth who has 4 career Bristol victories and Matt DiBenedetto’s 2019 run where he nearly won last year’s night race. For those that remember, Hamlin got around DiBenedetto in the closing laps which foiled a huge upset opportunity.

Betting Strategy and Targets

With this new format of racing that includes no pre-race activity, I am finding it pretty difficult to really nail sharp picks as easily as we are accustomed to. In all likelihood, it has nothing to do with me personally but it is a product of going into these races blind without any on-track observable data. While this format brings excitement and parity to teams, it hurts bettors because we may be picking the right team/driver that simply misses the setup off the truck and never has the opportunity to get the car where it needs to be with in-race adjustments alone. Historically, my philosophy has been to narrow-in on the sharp plays and only look for longshots in situational circumstances. In this new format, I think we should alter that philosophy slightly. With this new format and seeing so many competitive teams under this rules package, I think we need to start embracing the unknown with bets that pertain to value and ensure our betting targets are more than just 2-3 drivers while maintaining the same overall risk. By doing so, we give ourselves more drivers to pick and opportunities to win despite necessarily downsizing some bets especially those tailored towards favorites.

For this week’s Bristol race, it would be hard to argue against guys like Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick. In some way, you could make legitimate betting arguments for all those drivers. For Rowdy and Elliott, unfortunately betting odds make it nearly impossible to bet those drivers. As of Saturday morning, both drivers are listed under 4.5 to 1 odds which is rather ridiculous especially when you consider Kyle Busch has not led a lap since the Daytona 500. Therefore the risk far outweighs the reward for those drivers as odds currently stand. Personally if I was to add one of the top favorites to my roster, I would pivot towards either Joey Logano or Denny Hamlin. I like the momentum and confidence both Hamlin and Logano have going. Not to mention, both drivers should excel under this short-track package.

In terms of betting this week’s Bristol race, I am seeking what I call “rational value.” I am looking for the drivers that have momentum, solid Bristol resumes, and hold value from an odds standpoint. A few of the drivers that I have on my radar this week that could yield solid returns include Ryan Blaney (+1400), Kurt Busch (+1600), and Erik Jones (+3000). Even though Alex Bowman does not have the most polished Bristol resume, I think you can add him to this list as well at +2000 odds based on pure value. Furthermore if we want to reach deep into our pocket for long shots, Matt DiBendetto (+4000), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+5000), and Tyler Reddick (+6600) are all legitimate betting options for a lottery style victory.

Bristol just happens to be one of Stenhouse’s best tracks (outside of the superspeedways) and I hit a huge 27-1 top 5 prop bet with Stenhouse 2 years ago at Bristol. If you don’t have the room to take several long shots on your roster, do not overlook the possibility of placing wagers towards a couple of big prop bets. Bristol is a great place to seek a high value top 3/top 5 style winner as long as the odds present the right amount of value. Personally if I had to choose from any of the long shots, I would favor Tyler Reddick as one of my favorite long shots going into Sunday. Reddick has been showcasing his talent each week and enters Bristol as an extremely underrated short-track talent. Therefore, I expect the driver of the #8 to have a good run as long as they can avoid trouble.

Fantasy Targets

I would be an absolute liar if I told anyone that this week’s fantasy outlook is promising. Bristol presents so many changes and variances in the running order that you simply need a lot of luck to hit a big fantasy lineup. Because these cars click off lap times around 15 seconds per lap, the smallest error can result in a driver going several laps down. A cut tire, a pitroad penalty, a loose wheel, or anything can ruin a drivers afternoon. Because of these circumstances where it can be nearly impossible to overcome mistakes, this week’s fantasy outlook is extremely risky. If you are one of those players that plays high stakes games, this could be a crash or burn style race. If you are along the more moderate stakes player, lineup variation will be the best strategy. Multiple line-ups with variance to shed the bad luck and play the odds that the majority of the drivers we target will perform!

For fantasy targets, I believe there are tons of options this week. From starting positions, Christopher Bell ($7,300) and Daniel Suarez ($6,500) are valuable options that will be starting from the rear of the field. Suarez has actually performed well despite inferior equipment this season and Bristol is a track where he could optimize his finishing position with another good run. Meanwhile, Bell is starting to run better each week and provides a lot of upside from the 35th starting position at his current asking price. There are actually a lot of intermediate options in the $7,000-$9,000 value range. Guys like Ryan Newman ($6,800) and Erik Jones ($7,000) are dirt cheap and in position to deliver results. Meanwhile arguments could be made for Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney, and Tyler Reddick who are all listed under $9,000 as potential value spots. Again because there are so many potential value spots, I really think high variance and multiple lineups is the best strategy this week.

In order to narrow down the best fantasy bets this week, I am hanging my hat on Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick moving forward from their starting positions by a wide margin in order to produce solid value. In fact, the majority of my optimal lineup is based around place-differential potential because that is likely the best strategy if I had to count on one solo lineup. As a result, I will roll the dice with Daniel Suarez and Bubba Wallace who both should move significantly forward from their starting spots. For the remainder of my lineup, I am banking on Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski to provide value from the favorite positions. Hamlin should be a big threat to run upfront all night and I believe Keselowski will benefit from starting on the pole. If he can hold off his teammates for the early laps, he should be able to rack up some bonus points for leading early laps. I also like the fact the #2 car will have the luxury of the #1 pit stall which should help keep them towards the front.

2020 Food City 500 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Food City 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +1200 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1400 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +1600 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3000 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +6600 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Chase Elliott/Denny Hamlin +390 wins Food City 500
Ryan Newman +125 over Matt Kenseth
Risking 1 unit to win: +1000

H2H Matchups and Props

Ryan Blaney -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +100 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Clint Bowyer +500 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +970 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +1300 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)