2020 Food City 300 Race Predictions

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday September 18th, 2020 2:00PM EST at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Through the first 19 races of the year, Justin Allgaier had experienced mostly frustration stemming from bad finishes and blown opportunities. One of those blown opportunities occurred at Bristol Motor Speedway when Allgaier appeared to be primed for his 1st victory of the season in the closing laps. Only Allgaier made a mistake and allowed Noah Gragson to get to his door which then turned into a wrecked 18th place finish. Fortunately, Allgaier’s luck has turned around with 3 wins over the last 6 races including a sweep in both Richmond races last weekend. Now with momentum building for the #7 team, Allgaier will have a chance to return to Bristol and reclaim what was lost back in June. On Friday, Allgaier and others will compete in the Food City 300 which will be the final race in the Xfinity Series regular season before the playoffs begin at Las Vegas next week!

Before we get too far into expectations, let me be perfectly clear. This Friday’s Food City 300 will not be an ideal betting event. Unlike the Truck Series and Cup Series that could produce surprise winners, I think that possibility is much lower in Friday’s Food City 300 in the Xfinity Series. The reasons are rather simple in that the best Xfinity Series drivers at Bristol are all among the week to week betting favorites. After two straight wins, Justin Allgaier’s betting odds have plummeted compared to his opening number last week at Richmond. Meanwhile guys like Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, and Noah Gragson have all shown solid success at Bristol Motor Speedway in recent races. However, betting odds provide minimal marginal value. Odds are so top heavy this week that the ROI potential is severely limited making the betting side of this race extremely risky. As a result, I refuse to force bets when I do not see the potential return value offset the imposed risk and that is why the bets for this race will be very conservative.

The Favorites

While we can make the argument for most of the betting favorites, I truly believe Justin Allgaier may be the best Bristol driver in the series. Though the finishes have not always shown, Allgaier has led at least 100 laps in his last 3 Bristol starts. If you look back at his last 6 starts at Bristol, he has never posted an average driver rating less than 114 which is truly incredible. To put things in perspective, Chase Briscoe has finished 2nd, 2nd, and 4th in his last 3 Bristol starts and his highest average rating during that time period was 114. Therefore, Allgaier tops my list among the betting favorites this week as he seeks his 3rd win in a row following the sweep at Richmond.

For the remainder of the field, it is truly a guessing game to rank the other favorites in this race that includes Briscoe, Cindric, Gragson, and even Harrison Burton. Personally, I believe Briscoe is the best option because his last two runner-up finishes have been produced without strong performances meaning he finished better than the car should have based on speed. If Briscoe can unload a better ride, he could easily take the top spot. Meanwhile Austin Cindric and Noah Gragson are close into the picture as well. Despite Gragson’s win at Bristol earlier this year, he has not shown the same consistency in his few Bristol starts as the other favorites. Meanwhile, Harrison Burton had a really solid run back in June finishing 4th. Burton has finished inside the top 10 in both Bristol starts despite limited experience which makes him a legitimate threat going into this Friday’s race. If I was forced to rank the favorites behind Allgaier, it would probably go Briscoe, Cindric, Burton, and Gragson in that order.

Betting Targets

As I stated before, betting odds have provided minimal optimism this week in the form of potential return. Though I mentioned the favorites above, I will say both Ross Chastain and Justin Haley are live underdogs this Friday. Both drivers have proven to be very dangerous at the shorter layouts where they have a less aero disadvantage compared to the top teams. Thus far in his career, Haley has proven to be the better talent at Bristol but both drivers are deserving of betting consideration if their odds drift further north. With that being said, Haley also deserves H2H consideration as well.

Since I am not a huge fan of win odds this week, I will be looking for potential match-up opportunities to yield profit. One of my favorite H2H targets this week includes the #68 of Brandon Brown. Currently, Brown is not listed in any match-ups because only a few are being offered. However, I am hoping that Brown becomes playable on Friday’s when oddsmakers allow all H2H options. Brown has improved in every Bristol start of his career and had his best finish of the season back in June with a 7th place result. The reason I like Brown as a prime H2H target is because he is often paired against lower-level competition because he is usually a 15th place type car. However, Brown’s ceiling is much higher this week and can be a really sharp play if offered.

Lastly, Harrison Burton is one of my final drivers that deserves to be targeted this Friday. I mentioned earlier that Burton has posted finishes of 10th and 4th in his two prior Bristol starts. Back in June, Burton was really strong early in the race but the team could not keep up with the track which caused them to fade as the race progressed. Even with that said, Burton did not fade far and proved he has serious talent for the half-mile bullring. When I look at odds this week, Burton is in the range where he will be paired against drivers like Gragson, Haley, Brandon Jones, and others in similar proximity. I believe Burton has an opportunity to sweep all of those match-ups as long as they can find their long-run speed.

Drivers to Fade

I respect what Noah Gragson accomplished earlier this year. He led many laps, ran upfront, and got aggressive when the race was on the line. However, I believe odds makers have overreacted to that win in June. I can’t justify Gragson as being one of the overall favorites this week. I’m not saying it could not happen again but I think it is highly improbable. I believe the odds are much higher for the likes of Briscoe and Allgaier which will be excellent targets to help fade the #9 this week. Additionally, I would throw out names like Ross Chastain and Brandon Jones as fade options this week as well. If you look at Chastain’s stats at Bristol, they have been horrible. While I’m sure Chastain’s talent deserves better results, his driving style is a recipe for disaster at this type of track.

For Brandon Jones, I am listing him as a fade for the 3rd straight week. Jones proved me wrong with an improbable win at Darlington. Though the win was gifted, I give credit to Jones for running 3rd to be in that position which was much better than any prior Darlington races. Last week at Richmond, Jones proved to be a successful fade in both races and I think the same will be the case again this week. Jones produced a quality 3rd place finish back in June at Bristol but he ran most of the early part of the race outside the top 10. The #19 team optimized their finishing position thanks to the crazy restarts at the end. If you look at the averages, borderline top 10 is about where Jones has run in every other Bristol event. Since his value has been elevated from the win at Darlington and 3rd place result earlier this year, I think we can find value in fading the #19 again this week. I would be extremely surprised if Jones could replicate another top 5 finish and think there is a better possibility he finishes outside the top 10.

Fantasy Targets

I have mentioned exactly what I thought about every favorite above so I am not going to repeat anything on the top drivers. I will say from a value perspective, I really like the talents of Brandon Brown ($7,200) and Jeremy Clements ($7,600) are bargain drivers that have top 10 potential as they both displayed back in June. Perhaps a few safer plays in the same price range include Timmy Hill ($8,100) and Vinnie Miller ($7,100). I mention both Hill and Miller because their starting positions (34th/35th) bring immediate fantasy value. Both drivers have posted a few solid finishes at Bristol and should return value if they can stay out of trouble. My favorite value play of the weekend includes Gray Gaulding ($7,400). Gaulding his 3 previous Bristol starts in the Xfinity Series which all resulted in top 15 finishes. In this race one year ago, Gaulding peaked with a 6th place finish. As a result, Gaulding is a legitimate driver to consider for fantasy purposes.

Draftkings Food City 300 Optimal Lineup

2020 Food City 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +450 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +1200 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2000 (.5 unit)
Jeb Burton +8800 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Anthony Alfredo +115 over Ryan Sieg
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Chase Briscoe -130 over Ross Chastain (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -130 over Austin Cindric (2 units)