2020 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday June 7th, 3:25PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the 2nd time this year, betting odds for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 have been released with intentions for racing at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Earlier this year, the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 was originally scheduled to take place on March 15th but became the first event that was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Now nearly two months later, the Cup Series returns for an opportunity to embrace the high banks at Atlanta Motor Speedway for 500 miles of racing. Luckily, betting odds have been relatively generous this week and we look to take advantage with our 2020 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 race picks for Atlanta!

The biggest difference in the timing of this postponed event is the weather. Typically, the Cup Series visits Atlanta in early-mid March with relatively mild temperatures. On Sunday, temps will be approaching 90 degrees which will make Atlanta even tougher than normal. As stated in prior previews, Atlanta Motor Speedway has an extremely abrasive surface with a really low grip-level. The racing surface makes things very tough on drivers as they attempt to wrestle cars through the turns while keeping their foot in the gas. Furthermore, drivers and teams absolutely must take care of their tires. Lap times will fall off about 1 second for every 10-15 green flag laps which means long-run speed and tire conservation is critical towards having success at Atlanta.

Without practices again this week, it becomes a guessing game for these teams as they attempt to dial-in setups that will account for the slick conditions but still maintain long-run speed. Luckily, the Cup Series visited Charlotte just two weeks ago. While Charlotte has a lot more grip, the shape of the track, the layout, and the banking is nearly identical to Atlanta which should help with finding the balance on the setups. In those two races at Charlotte, Alex Bowman led the most laps (215) by a wide margin but it’s important to note the #88 struggled with long-run speed. Martin Truex (87), Joey Logano (68), Chase Elliott (66), and Kevin Harvick (63) were your top 5 drivers in terms of laps led through both Charlotte races which perhaps paints a baseline of expectations.

Atlanta Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	132.8	6.0	1.2	4.4	3.0	70	188	275	765	1630
Martin Truex Jr	110.7	15.2	7.0	5.6	6.4	69	292	90	39	1630
Brad Keselowski	109.6	11.6	8.4	4.4	7.0	27	270	111	94	1630
Kurt Busch	107.1	7.3	6.8	5.5	6.3	-1	197	31	115	1305
Joey Logano	101.3	15.2	9.4	10.2	8.8	30	243	105	107	1629
Matt Kenseth	95.6	21.7	17.3	9.0	14.3	2	94	31	57	978
Kyle Busch	92.4	12.3	10.5	8.0	10.8	40	181	65	11	1305
Chase Elliott	89.2	21.0	9.5	10.5	10.3	17	195	40	0	1304
Ryan Newman	87.6	5.6	12.8	20.8	12.8	-71	188	56	20	1609
Jimmie Johnson	86.3	21.4	15.4	14.4	14.6	65	161	82	146	1623
Denny Hamlin	84.4	8.4	8.8	21.4	12.4	-40	211	48	40	1444
Clint Bowyer	81.3	18.0	15.4	15.6	14.6	13	184	45	1	1618
Erik Jones	80.1	16.0	10.3	10.7	13.3	14	135	5	0	975
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	79.2	7.4	18.0	18.6	15.0	-23	190	23	1	1605
Ryan Blaney	78.9	22.3	13.5	19.3	14.3	-1	119	42	41	1301
Daniel Suarez	72.8	10.0	16.0	15.3	16.0	-19	106	8	0	972
Aric Almirola	72.2	18.4	17.6	14.8	17.4	43	160	22	36	1624
Austin Dillon	65.7	15.4	19.0	23.4	19.8	-32	157	7	0	1579
Alex Bowman	64.3	25.3	22.3	19.3	21.3	8	39	2	0	969
Ty Dillon	57.7	23.3	23.5	20.8	23.0	4	5	11	0	1297
William Byron	56.7	20.0	19.0	17.5	20.5	-11	14	4	0	648
Chris Buescher	53.7	28.3	25.8	21.5	24.8	3	39	6	0	1295
Bubba Wallace	43.7	24.0	26.0	29.5	26.5	8	0	0	0	641
Matt DiBenedetto	42.0	26.8	29.3	28.5	28.8	-26	7	1	0	1288
Michael McDowell	41.9	24.2	31.0	30.0	30.4	-42	7	8	0	1506
Corey LaJoie	35.0	28.0	33.5	31.5	32.5	-18	0	10	0	632
Gray Gaulding	27.6	31.0	36.0	36.5	35.0	-10	3	11	0	352

The first obvious notion is the fact Kevin Harvick has posted incredible stats at Atlanta with a lucrative 132.8 rating over the last 5 races. Harvick has actually led more than 1,000 laps in the last 8 Atlanta races and is clearly the favorite going into Sunday based on trends and 2020 performance. Second on our list is Martin Truex Jr primarily through his reign of terror on the 1.5 mile tracks over the last few years. I don’t think Truex is currently in “winning” form but his knack for long-run speed should keep him in the picture. Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, and Joey Logano all have plus 100 ratings. Keselowski has been really strong at Atlanta with 2 victories in the last 3 races. Meanwhile, Atlanta has been one of Kurt Busch’s best tracks statistically and he should be a dark horse based on how the #1 team has performed in recent weeks.

For the rest of the loop data, I don’t see too many notable call outs. Despite a mediocre 86.3 rating, Jimmie Johnson owns the 2nd most laps led over the last 5 races which includes wins in 2015 and 2016. In fact, I think some of these numbers could be a touch misleading. The Chevrolet cars are running exceptionally well. Despite poor finishes, William Byron and Alex Bowman deserve higher stocks. Also, I would add Ryan Blaney to that list. Blaney is notoriously good on the 1.5 mile tracks and despite a streak of bad luck in recent weeks; he remains one of the fastest cars in the Cup Series on a near weekly basis.

Drivers To Target

Opening betting odds were relatively generous this week and I jumped on the early value by sending out email plays to all of our subscribers for the 1st time this year. I jumped on guys like Ryan Blaney +1760, Jimmie Johnson +1980, and Kurt Busch +1980 early in the week. I also added Martin Truex into that group at +1100. Simply put, I thought those drivers provided a lot of value at their odds. If I had to start over again and ignore the early betting odds, I still believe Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson provide decent dark horse potential as guys that should be in the mix at some point on Sunday. Both drivers’ odds have been slashed but should be on everyone’s radar as potential 2nd-tier threats.

Among the favorites, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott stand out as the guys to beat. If not for mistakes and bad luck, Elliott could have won the last 4-5 races and clearly is emerging as one of the best drivers in the series with Chevrolet’s resurgence. However, I still don’t believe I could put Elliott ahead of Harvick based on Harvick’s stats at Atlanta. Another pair of targets that should be given proper consideration includes both Alex Bowman and Brad Keselowski. Keselowski has won 2 of the last 4 races and possesses an excellent Atlanta resume. Meanwhile, Bowman has consistently been one of the fastest guys in this new package. The #88 team simply needs to maintain their speed throughout an entire race like we saw with the win at Fontana.

Ultimately if we want to narrow down our list for sharp bets in the form of H2H match-ups or even for fantasy purposes, I really like Kurt Busch and Christopher Bell as drivers that should exceed expectations. The loop stats above point out the success Busch has had in recent races at Atlanta and the #1 team continues to show speed each week. Busch is a 3-time winner at Atlanta which is the 2nd most among active drivers behind Jimmie Johnson (5). Meanwhile, Christopher Bell has quietly turned around the disastrous start to his rookie campaign. After 5 straight finishes of 24th or worse to start the year, Bell has posted finishes of 9th, 11th, 21st, and 9th over the last 4 races. This is the type of track that will suit Bell’s style and I think the #95 team can keep their momentum going this week. Look for Bell in H2H match-ups as a sharp play!

Fantasy Racing Targets

For anchors, I believe most fantasy lineups can afford rostering both Chase Elliott ($9,900) and Kevin Harvick ($11,700) as anchors. Starting from the pole, Elliott is cheap enough (compared to the favorites) to roster with confidence and there is a strong possibility Elliott racks up some bonus points for leading laps early on Sunday. Harvick is the most expensive fantasy option on the board but again the stats show Harvick’s dominance as the driver with the most fastest laps and laps led in the last 5 Atlanta races by a wide margin. If you want to pivot against Harvick for a cheaper option, Martin Truex’s price tag is reasonably priced at $9,600. Truex is in the middle of Kurt Busch ($9,400) and Jimmie Johnson ($10,200) who could all be considered reasonable fantasy targets.

Outside of the top guys, a few of my favorite fantasy plays for Sunday include Michael McDowell and Christopher Bell. I mentioned Bell’s name earlier as a H2H sharp play after finding some momentum of late and his 27th starting position provides fantasy value as well. Meanwhile, Michael McDowell got the unfortunate draw of starting in the 36th position on Sunday. McDowell has finished all but 1 race inside the top 25 this year and is averaging a 20.6 finishing position on the season. At a bare minimum of just $5,200, McDowell is a must-play to provide salary relief and value. Lastly, I would also throw out names like Brad Keselowski ($8,900), William Byron ($7,900), and Daniel Suarez ($6,900) are all names that can be mixed into fantasy lineups this week based on value and potential.

2020 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Alex Bowman +900 (1.25 units)
Martin Truex Jr +1100 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1760 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +1980 (.75 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +1980 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick +495 wins Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +130 over Tyler Reddick
Risking 1 unit to win: +1245

H2H Match-ups

Kurt Busch -140 over Clint Bowyer (3 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +1500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +2000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)