2020 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 8th, 2020 4:00PM EST at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will have an action-packed weekend at Michigan International Speedway with back to back races on Saturday and Sunday. Both races this weekend will feature 312 mile (156 laps) events beginning on Saturday with the running of the FireKeepers Casino 400. Last week, our handicapping analysis was geared towards driver history which helped cash a winning ticket with Brad Keselowski at 12 to 1 odds. This week our handicapping analysis pivots back to performance trends under the 550 horsepower package as we look to bet on the teams that have shown the most speed at NASCAR’s fastest track. As a result, take a look as we provide our 2020 FireKeepers Casino 400 race picks for Michigan!

For track comparison, Michigan can be closely compared to Auto Club Speedway which is another similarly shaped 2-mile oval. The biggest difference between Michigan and Auto Club Speedway pertains to both tracks having significant differences in grip level and tire wear. Auto Club Speedway houses a rugged surface that yields low grip and heavy tire wear conditions. Meanwhile, Michigan International Speedway was repaved in 2012 and has held-up well yielding an elevated grip level and minimal tire wear. In fact, the surface asphalt at Michigan is often compared to Texas Motor Speedway and GoodYear usually provides a very similar (sometimes identical) tire compound for both tracks. This week GoodYear will bring the exact same tire code that was used recently at both Kentucky and Texas. As a result, this information will be useful for teams as they prepare for another pair of races without any practice or on-track activity.

From a handicapping perspective, I believe the Auto Club 400 that was held in March at Auto Club Speedway is becoming almost entirely irrelevant at this time. There have been so many changes since the beginning of the year that I would not allow the results from Auto Club Speedway to influence thoughts towards this weekend’s picks. Instead, I believe the best focus should be towards recent performances under the 550 horsepower package which includes most recent races at Pocono, Indianapolis, Kentucky, Texas, and Kansas. Not only have all of those races transpired in the last 5 weeks of racing but it provides enough data to establish a baseline of expectations going into the weekend at Michigan. Before we transition mainly towards performance trends discussion, let’s first start with loop data ratings for recent races at Michigan International Speedway!

Michigan Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	128.8	3.0	4.0	4.8	5.6	28	197	147	194	938
Brad Keselowski	111.1	6.0	5.0	10.0	7.6	1	196	78	177	938
Joey Logano	107.5	5.0	7.2	12.6	8.2	-43	152	31	216	936
Martin Truex Jr	104.7	13.6	6.8	8.2	9.2	59	219	103	125	938
Kurt Busch	102.4	9.6	7.8	9.0	8.0	51	227	29	51	938
Kyle Busch	100.1	9.6	9.6	5.6	9.8	92	214	62	39	938
Ryan Blaney	99.8	9.8	5.2	12.2	8.2	-33	188	56	19	938
Denny Hamlin	95.0	7.8	11.2	9.8	10.2	-4	204	56	40	938
Chase Elliott	89.3	12.4	13.2	11.0	12.8	20	196	21	1	938
Clint Bowyer	86.4	9.8	11.6	21.6	14.6	10	164	21	9	804
Erik Jones	85.4	10.0	10.2	16.0	12.8	-8	175	14	5	934
Alex Bowman	85.3	13.8	13.3	13.8	12.5	-17	132	13	0	736
Aric Almirola	80.8	11.0	15.0	16.0	14.6	11	206	15	1	931
Austin Dillon	80.3	17.4	9.6	12.8	13.6	-9	187	10	12	937
Daniel Suarez	79.3	19.6	20.6	17.4	17.4	10	160	14	4	873
William Byron	75.3	14.5	18.5	18.8	17.0	8	110	5	2	723
Ryan Newman	75.1	16.0	21.0	12.2	16.8	25	132	2	12	938
Matt Kenseth	68.2	11.5	20.0	28.5	19.5	-48	40	8	0	334
Chris Buescher	66.9	23.4	19.0	16.0	18.8	32	103	7	0	938
Ryan Preece	63.1	28.5	19.5	16.0	20.5	22	32	0	0	403
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	60.9	12.4	21.0	22.4	20.4	-35	71	2	0	937
Jimmie Johnson	60.4	18.0	23.8	23.2	22.8	17	58	7	13	928
Bubba Wallace	54.3	25.8	25.3	24.3	23.5	-7	23	0	0	732
Ty Dillon	51.9	27.4	25.8	22.6	25.0	-18	24	0	0	869
Michael McDowell	49.4	24.8	25.6	25.2	25.2	-39	10	0	0	934
Matt DiBenedetto	44.7	28.6	30.2	25.4	27.8	-14	27	1	0	933
Corey LaJoie	38.9	32.2	32.6	28.4	30.8	-33	8	1	0	772
Quin Houff	30.7	33.5	34.0	31.5	33.5	-10	0	2	0	394
B.J. McLeod	28.8	35.7	36.7	34.7	35.7	-15	0	0	0	503
Garrett Smithley	27.7	36.5	36.5	34.0	35.3	2	0	2	0	586
Timmy Hill	27.5	37.5	35.0	36.0	35.0	0	0	0	0	270

Though I love analyzing loop data statistics, I must reiterate that performance/finishes at Michigan are typically a result of current form which is why I made mention to recent races above and will continue to do so later. With that being said, Kevin Harvick leads all drivers over the last 5 races at Michigan with an impressive 128.8 average rating. The #4 team has likely been the best in the Cup Series with raw aerodynamic speed in recent years and that statistics for Michigan support that notion. Both Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have also been strong at Michigan in recent races. Logano has led the most laps (216) over the last 5 races and is the defending winner of this event.

Martin Truex, Kyle Busch, and Kurt Busch also deserve notable mentions as drivers that have sported triple digit average ratings. Surprisingly, Truex has never won at Michigan despite numerous top 5 finishes. Kurt Busch (3) is tied with Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Joey Logano for the most wins at Michigan among active drivers. I would also point out that Ryan Blaney barely missed the triple digit mark with a 99.8 average rating and perhaps his status should be elevated this week in combination with the performance trends during 2020 under this same package.

A couple of other notable mentions directly from loop data observations include Jimmie Johnson who owns a miserable 60.4 average rating over the last 5 events at MIS. Despite Johnson’s illustrious career, he has just 1 win at Michigan in 36 career starts and only 5 top 5 finishes. In fact, Johnson has finished 15th or worse in 8 of his last 10 starts at Michigan which should be kept in mind for H2H match-up purposes. Another driver that I would point out for different reasons includes Chase Elliott. Elliott’s 89.3 average rating is probably on par with Chevrolet’s performance in recent years at Michigan. While the #9 team has not been great in recent weeks, Elliott started his career with 3 straight runner-up finishes at Michigan and should run better than the averages suggest this weekend.

Drivers to Target (win odds)

When racing begins in the Irish Hills on Saturday, I would fully expect Kevin Harvick to be the biggest threat for the outright win. I made a tweet at the end of last week’s race that sums up how strong Harvick has been this season. Despite being somewhat “off” at New Hampshire, Harvick recorded his 7th straight top 5 finish which brings his total to 13 top 5 finishes on the season in just 20 starts. Those are incredible numbers and it is important to point out that Harvick has been best at the horsepower tracks with wins at Darlington, Atlanta, Pocono, and Indianapolis. As a result, I am really high on Harvick’s chances this week perhaps more than usual for a betting favorite. Harvick has won 2 of the last 3 races and honestly had the fastest car in the runner-up finish in 2018 before rain shortened the race. Therefore, Harvick could be considered the new king of Michigan especially if he takes home another win this weekend.

Obviously betting odds make it difficult to find sufficient return towards betting on Harvick this week. For bettors looking for bettor value, I would pivot towards Joey Logano as one of the best value plays on the board. Logano is tied for the most wins (3) at Michigan among active drivers but he has accomplished the feat in nearly half as many races as the likes of Harvick, Kenseth, and Ku. Busch. When you consider how well the Team Penske cars have been this season, I believe Logano should likely be among the leading favorites this week. Instead, he is hanging around the 4th-5th betting favorite position at just less than 10 to 1 odds. Logano is my favorite choice from the Team Penske camp this week but I would be lying if I did not mention Ryan Blaney. I think I have said it every week that Blaney should have 3-4 wins this season and I know I have lost more money than I have won betting on the #12 this year. However, this is another stylistic opportunity for Blaney based on the performance trends.

If we are going to see an upset this weekend, I believe Aric Almirola and Kurt Busch are drivers worth consideration. I like Busch mainly because his odds are enticing. Busch has been around a 5th-9th place car on average this year on the ovals and while they have not shown “winning” speed; the #1 team is pretty close if they can make a few gains in the speed department. Michigan is known for provoking strategy calls on pit road and at greater than 30 to 1 odds it never hurts to have a long shot within striking distance. Lastly, Aric Almirola is a driver that I cannot shake from my conscious. I really don’t like Almirola’s odds this week which opened at 14 to 1 (currently 16 to 1) but the #10 car has shown phenomenal speed in recent weeks. More importantly, Almriola has been pretty solid at Michigan over the last 3 races despite failing to get the finishes to show for it. In last year’s FireKeepers Casino 400, he was battling in the top 5 through the opening two stages and has shown similar flashes of strength in prior races. Considering Almirola has shown the fastest speed of his career in recent weeks, the #10 is a live dark horse for both races this weekend!

Drivers to Fade

Going into Saturday’s race, I only have a couple of drivers that I feel confident fading. I am sure more fade targets will appear in the opening race on Saturday to provide more options on Sunday. When the Cup Series visited Pocono for back to back races on the same weekend a few weeks ago, we did not see significant difference in performances from Saturday to Sunday and I expect some carryover again this week as well. For Saturday’s opening act, my main two drivers that I am looking to fade include both Jimmie Johnson and Matt DiBenedetto.

Despite Johnson’s incredible Hall of Fame career, he holds just 1 victory and 5 top 5 finishes at Michigan in 38 starts. Michigan has never been one of Johnson’s strong tracks and that has never been more true than in the waning years of Johnson’s career. I mentioned above that Johnson’s loop data stats over the last 5 races are downright terrible and he has typically been paired against decent drivers in recent weeks that all should have the upper hand in match-ups.

For Matt DiBenedetto, this is a more sharper play. I feel like DiBenedetto has shown solid speed in recent weeks despite a lot of bad luck. Last week, DiBenedetto was evenly paired against talents like Kurt Busch and Erik Jones. I expect similar match-ups again this week and if that happens; I will be looking to go against the #21. Simply put, these bigger ovals have never been DiBenedetto’s strength. In 10 career starts at the 2.0 mile ovals at Auto Club and Michigan, DiBenedetto has just 1 top 15 finish and has finished outside the top 20 in 8 of 10 starts. I’m sure the #21 will have a chance to improve somewhat against those stats but I don’t think it will be enough to beat the guys he will be paired against in match-ups.

Fantasy Value Options

Outside of the names mentioned above, I wanted to talk about a few guys that I have yet to mention that yield really solid fantasy value. For starters, I believe Kurt Busch is slightly under-priced this week at just $8,000. Busch has been solid using the 550hp package this season and has posted finishes of 6th or better in 3 of his last 4 starts at Michigan across two different teams. Remember, Busch is a 3-time winner at Michigan and has posted driver ratings 109 or greater in 3 of the last 4 races at MIS. Therefore, I believe there is too much potential value to ignore on the #1 this week so make sure to mix Busch into some of your lineups.

One of my favorite sleepers this week in the realm of both fantasy and H2H match-ups includes the #8 of Tyler Reddick. This style of racing plays into Reddick’s strengths behind the wheel and the #8 team has some overlooked momentum on their side as well. Reddick has finished in the top 10 in 4 of the last 5 races and Michigan provides the perfect opportunity to build on that momentum. At just $7,200, Reddick yields solid fantasy value if he can keep the momentum rolling. Another dirt cheap fantasy flier that I like this week involves the #32 of Corey LaJoie. LaJoie drew the 36th position which elevates his value this week. LaJoie posted finishes of 16th and 21st at Texas and Kansas. Another similar finish would yield solid value from an asking price of just $5,600!

Draftkings FireKeepers Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +900 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +1800 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +3000 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +6600 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Grant Enfinger +100 over Chandler Smith (win)
Kevin Harvick +450 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1000

Joey Logano/Denny Hamlin +315 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Team 2 – Open (for Sunday)
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -130 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)