2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 12th, 7:48PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

After two nights of racing, the Cup Series will finally get their opportunity under the bright lights of Richmond Raceway when the green flag waves for the Federated Auto Parts 400 on Saturday. Originally this week’s race was scheduled to be the 2nd event at Richmond Raceway this season. However, COVID-19 ultimately caused the spring race to be cancelled. When the Cup Series makes its first laps at Richmond Raceway, it will be with championship and playoff hopes on the line which is sure to intensify the racing. As we prepare for Saturday night short-track racing, we take the time to discuss the best betting options with our 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 race picks!

If you look at the history at Richmond Raceway, you may notice that Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 6 victories at Richmond Raceway. Bettors may also notice that the two most dominant drivers this season, in Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, also have 3 wins each. However, the trend that stands out to me does not belong to a specific driver but rather a group of drivers in the form of Joe Gibbs Racing. JGR drivers have won the last 4 straight races at Richmond with Martin Truex sweeping both of last season’s races and Kyle Busch sweeping both races in 2018. Even if you look past those 4 victories, JGR drivers have accounted for 7 of the last 9 victories at Richmond Raceway and perhaps the most remarkable piece to that stat is the fact that 5 different drivers have captured those 7 victories. With momentum rolling for the JGR cars over the last few weeks, Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 should be another prime opportunity to send another JGR car to victory lane!

Richmond Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	127.9	4.4	3.0	7.8	3.2	41	122	237	777	2005
Kyle Busch	116.5	11.6	8.6	4.2	5.8	60	119	208	465	2006
Kevin Harvick	108.8	4.0	8.2	6.8	6.6	-6	102	137	78	2006
Brad Keselowski	106.1	11.8	5.4	8.0	6.0	17	168	129	196	2006
Joey Logano	103.2	11.6	7.2	6.8	8.8	15	119	65	144	2005
Kurt Busch	96.4	5.0	9.2	12.6	8.4	-32	136	51	98	2002
Clint Bowyer	95.9	14.4	10.0	11.0	9.8	63	129	75	45	2005
Denny Hamlin	95.6	8.8	12.0	6.4	10.4	0	136	81	6	2005
Chase Elliott	93.1	12.8	11.4	9.0	10.2	-7	117	31	34	2005
Erik Jones	87.3	15.2	10.6	9.6	12.8	59	134	32	0	2006
Matt Kenseth	83.6	9.0	12.5	31.5	18.0	-11	13	43	89	653
Jimmie Johnson	82.6	20.4	13.2	9.0	13.8	72	125	22	0	2006
Ryan Newman	81.7	20.0	10.2	14.0	13.2	42	169	29	4	1971
Aric Almirola	80.8	18.4	12.8	15.8	13.8	18	96	35	1	2003
Austin Dillon	78.0	20.6	15.2	14.2	15.4	24	97	34	0	2001
Daniel Suarez	77.1	25.4	14.2	12.4	15.2	38	137	33	0	2004
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	75.3	12.8	18.8	17.4	16.8	-48	91	80	2	2005
William Byron	73.1	16.5	15.0	17.5	16.5	20	67	17	0	1596
Alex Bowman	71.4	14.0	18.5	17.8	17.5	-25	58	17	1	1597
Ryan Blaney	66.9	13.6	17.4	20.4	17.0	-59	86	15	0	2001
Bubba Wallace	55.0	24.8	23.3	23.0	24.8	-17	7	11	0	1592
Michael McDowell	53.4	20.8	24.4	25.8	26.4	-41	17	27	0	1838
Matt DiBenedetto	52.3	22.2	24.8	24.0	24.8	-12	25	13	0	1990
Ty Dillon	51.7	29.0	25.8	23.6	25.0	10	7	6	0	1994
Chris Buescher	50.4	19.0	27.0	28.4	26.0	-65	16	20	0	1986
Ryan Preece	49.5	18.5	28.0	25.5	26.5	-16	2	5	0	793
Corey LaJoie	43.4	28.5	28.8	29.3	29.0	-7	0	20	0	1584
Joey Gase	29.3	36.0	34.5	34.0	35.0	2	0	3	0	775
Quin Houff	25.4	32.0	35.5	35.0	35.5	0	0	1	0	770

As mentioned earlier, Martin Truex swept both Richmond Races last season in relatively dominant fashion. However, Truex’s success at Richmond goes back further than just the last two races. Truex has led a minimum of 100 laps in his last 5 starts at Richmond which vaults him to the top of our loop data rankings this week with a lucrative 127.9 average rating over the last 5 starts. Kyle Busch ranks 2nd in our loop data with an equally impressive 116.5 average rating. The fact that Truex has produced a better mark than Rowdy speaks volumes when you account Busch’s success at Richmond throughout his career.

Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano have all produced triple digit ratings over the last 5 starts which warrants respect among bettors this week. Surprisingly, the hometown native of Denny Hamlin does not show up among the top favorites this week. Hamlin actually falls into the 8th position this week with a solid 95.6 average rating. A few of the notable outliers this week include the dismal results of Ryan Blaney (66.9) and Alex Bowman (71.4) who barely hold onto top 20 average marks. Through 8 career starts, both Blaney and Bowman have posted an embarrassing 25th place average finishing position without a single top 10 finish. As a result, both drivers should be marked as potential fade targets in H2H match-ups.

Betting Targets

A lot of people seem to be backing Kyle Busch this week. Busch has been listed as low as 5 to 1 odds this week and while I agree this is a great track for Busch; I cannot justify the betting odds listed on the #18 this week as Rowdy continues to seek the 1st win of the season. Instead, I really like Martin Truex as the anchored favorite this week. Truex may be a hot pick this week due to his success last year winning both races. However, my reasons are a bit different. Richmond is vastly underrated as a track that yields high tire wear. Usually when we talk about high tire wear race tracks, we think of Atlanta, Homestead, and Darlington. However, Richmond is up there as well and that is the type of setups where Truex shines. Just last week at a similar high-wear track at Darlington, Truex was dominant especially on longer runs. If he would have just been a bit more patient, he probably would have got the victory. This week, I think Truex will get the job done and once again it will be because of the #19 team’s long-run speed!

If Truex does not get the job done, JGR’s streak of 4 straight wins could be in jeopardy. Sure, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are worthy of striking gold. However, I believe the Team Penske cars of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski may be the best betting options behind Truex. Both Logano and Keselowski have hovered around the 10 to 1 range this week which is decent value. Logano is a two-time Richmond winner with 9 top 5 finishes in 22 starts. Meanwhile, Keselowski has finished 11th or better in 11 of his last 12 starts. Keselowski has a 2014 Richmond win on his resume and has been really strong over the last 3-4 races. If you also consider Team Penske’s strong performance under the low downforce (short-track) rules package this season, I believe both Keselowski and Logano are legitimate threats to challenge for the victory on Saturday and are likely not getting the betting attention they deserve.

Aside from win bets, Richmond is usually a good track to target aggressive H2H match-up action. One of my sharp plays in the realm of H2H match-ups involves the #14 of Clint Bowyer. To be transparent, I have never really liked betting Bowyer because he usually underperforms. However, Richmond is one of the rare exceptions where Bowyer seems to always put together quality performances. The veteran has produced 4 straight top 10 finishes and if you look through his career at Richmond; he has always been towards the front when behind the wheel of decent equipment. When you combine the fact that Bowyer’s match-up opponents have been middle of the road talents in recent weeks, this could be a great opportunity to jump on the #14 this week.

Another driver that has a similar narrative this week includes Ryan Newman. I am cautiously optimistic that Newman holds value against the lower-end opponents he is paired against this week. Richmond has always been a good track for Newman and he has posted top 10 finishes in 4 of his last 6 starts. With that being said, Newman’s performance has been pretty bad this year since the injury at Daytona. Newman has posted just one top 10 finish this entire season which is the lowest mark of his career. Because of the lackluster results, Newman’s H2H value has dropped significantly low and I truly believe this Saturday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 will be one of his last opportunities towards a good finish.

Drivers to Fade

Luckily the drivers to fade are most easily identifiable this week than the drivers to target. Ideally we would have a mix of both. However, the fade candidates are pretty obvious this week. I mentioned both Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman’s struggles at Richmond in the loop data stats above. I consider both drivers strong fade possibilities. Blaney has consistently been paired against better competition so he stands out as my favorite fade target this week. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott is a driver that is also high on my radar this week among the betting favorites. Elliott has salvaged a couple of solid finishes at Richmond but his average running position is far less impressive. Elliott has finished 10th or worse in 7 of his 9 career starts. Not only does Richmond not fit his driving style but he has not shown the performance to warrant being in the same company as the betting favorites this week. For that reason, Elliott can also be considered a legitimate fade target.

Draftkings Fantasy Plays for Richmond

I am actually pretty excited to compile a few fantasy line-ups this week because there are a lot of different options that can be taken. As I alluded to in the betting advice above, I love Martin Truex Jr ($10,900) as an anchor option from the 14th place starting spot. Hamlin, Harvick, and Busch definitely have anchor potential especially Harvick who could lead several early laps from the pole position. However, Truex remains my favorite based on starting position and ceiling potential. The good news is that there is enough value plays to keep line-ups relatively strong from top to bottom.

A few of the value plays that I like this week include Corey LaJoie ($5,800) and Christopher Bell ($7,200). LaJoie is a dirt-cheap option that continues to be undervalued each week. The #32 team has greatly improved in 2020 and a top 20 finishing position is not out of the question for Saturday which will yield a ton of value when you consider LaJoie’s price tag from the 34th starting spot. For Christopher Bell, I want a ton of exposure on Bell this week. After a few weeks of bad luck and bad finishes, Bell has the ability to turn it around this week at Richmond. Bell was incredible at Richmond in the Xfinity Series and understands the importance of saving tires for long-run speed. Remember that success I mentioned earlier involving JGR at Richmond? Well remember Bell’s #95 team is basically an extension of JGR equipment.

If you are a fantasy owner that plays multiple line-ups, guys like Clint Bowyer ($8,300), Ryan Newman ($7,000), and John Hunter Nemechek ($6,500) all deserve fantasy consideration as relatively cheap options that should move forward from their starting position. If you can mix a few of these value options into your line-up, you can really beef up the top-half of your driving talent. Since I also like the Team Penske cars of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano this week, I am going to have plenty of exposure on both drivers in fantasy this week. Both drivers are priced at the lower end of the favorites making them great pivot options that will likely have low ownership.

Draftkings 2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks

*More plays may be added until “Final” status is displayed*

Kyle Busch +900 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1000 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1000 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +4000 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +4000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Sheldon Creed +125 over Christian Eckes (win)
Martin Truex +365 wins Federated Auto Parts 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +945

Match-Ups and Props

Martin Truex -140 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Kurt Busch -115 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Christopher Bell +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +650 wins Group E (Bell, Custer, Reddick)(.5 unit)