2020 Drydene 311 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 22nd, 4:00PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will get two opportunities to tackle the Monster Mile this weekend with back to back races on Saturday and Sunday. Both races will feature double-headers with the Xfinity Series, who will be competing before each race compiling a total of 4 races in just two days. For bettors, the Monster Mile provides a needed return to short-track racing which will perhaps bring more competitors, outside of Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, to the front of the field. With plentiful betting opportunities on the horizon, take a look as we breakdown the drivers that should be targeted in our 2020 Drydene 311 race picks for the opening Cup Series race at Dover!

Dover International Speedway is a one-mile concrete surface. With steep banking at 24 degrees in the corners, the Monster Mile produces extremely fast speeds for a one-mile racetrack and drivers will have to keep the car on the edge to maintain fast lap times. I have made the comment several times that Dover is like “Bristol on steroids” and I will make that comparison yet again this week. As a driver, typically you either like Dover or you hate it. It requires a unique skill to get around Dover successfully and that is why certain names typically emerge at the front of these races. However, the last 6 races have been decided by 6 different winners which is extremely rare when you look through the history books at the Monster Mile. Will the streak of new winners continue or will a prior winner reclaim their throne?

From a historical standpoint, Jimmie Johnson stands alone as the all-time king of Dover with 11 wins in his illustrious career. Johnson’s last win at the Monster Mile came back in 2017 and he has sported an incredible 9.92 average finishing position throughout his 38 race career. Behind Johnson, we have several drivers that have scored 3 victories at Dover including Martin Truex, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, and Kyle Busch. Kevin Harvick is the only other driver with multiple wins (2) among active drivers. Since the 2017 season, Kevin Harvick has led the most laps (453) among active drivers and also maintains the best average driver rating at 120.2.

Dover Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	123.7	4.6	2.6	6.4	5.0	-3	137	340	488	2003
Martin Truex Jr	116.9	4.6	4.4	5.2	5.2	27	146	215	198	2004
Brad Keselowski	101.3	10.6	6.4	10.6	6.8	-7	131	80	213	2002
Kyle Busch	99.5	9.4	7.6	12.0	9.2	15	177	120	52	1875
Chase Elliott	97.0	6.6	12.6	11.6	12.2	13	127	119	294	1612
Clint Bowyer	96.6	12.6	7.2	12.4	9.0	43	154	76	41	1987
Alex Bowman	94.5	11.0	12.0	14.0	11.8	27	134	104	42	1593
Denny Hamlin	90.9	8.0	10.2	14.0	10.8	-32	139	69	218	1975
Kurt Busch	87.8	11.4	12.6	10.4	11.4	23	130	48	3	2000
Daniel Suarez	86.2	12.0	14.0	9.2	13.2	20	107	44	22	2002
Jimmie Johnson	85.8	14.4	13.0	14.0	14.4	33	136	86	10	1986
Erik Jones	85.7	12.0	11.0	11.0	11.8	-29	135	23	0	2001
Ryan Blaney	85.2	10.8	11.6	18.4	12.8	-45	96	15	0	1897
Joey Logano	81.7	12.0	16.8	14.4	15.4	36	118	45	23	1978
William Byron	80.7	11.8	17.8	13.5	15.0	20	94	25	6	1599
Aric Almirola	79.1	10.4	15.8	16.4	15.0	-19	92	46	64	1997
Matt Kenseth	72.1	16.0	18.5	15.5	17.0	4	20	9	0	802
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	71.2	16.0	19.4	18.4	17.4	-8	94	25	31	1986
Austin Dillon	67.1	21.4	19.2	17.2	19.4	-25	73	29	0	1994
Ryan Newman	63.8	18.2	23.6	20.6	21.4	-33	45	18	0	1970
Matt DiBenedetto	55.8	26.4	24.0	22.8	24.0	10	64	46	0	1980
Ty Dillon	53.8	27.8	25.2	24.0	24.4	-8	21	7	1	1979
Ryan Preece	53.3	30.5	21.0	23.5	23.0	4	8	2	0	788
Chris Buescher	52.2	22.6	24.4	26.8	25.2	-29	22	1	0	1820
Bubba Wallace	51.6	27.0	23.8	23.8	25.3	26	4	17	0	1583
Michael McDowell	49.8	28.0	26.2	24.6	25.4	19	15	1	1	1978
J.J. Yeley	36.2	35.0	33.0	32.0	33.0	3	0	0	0	772
Corey LaJoie	35.0	33.0	32.8	31.8	32.6	-18	0	1	0	1580
B.J. McLeod	31.5	34.8	35.5	34.0	35.0	-11	0	0	0	1239
Reed Sorenson	27.5	37.0	36.0	35.8	35.5	1	0	0	0	1080
Timmy Hill	24.0	36.5	39.5	39.5	38.0	-1	0	0	0	74

Our loop data stats take into account the last 5 races at the Monster Mile. As you can see, Kevin Harvick’s average driver rating is slightly better at 123.7 to lead all active drivers. Martin Truex Jr is the only other driver that can compare to Harvick’s performance stats through the same time period. Truex scored his 1st career Cup Series win at Dover back in 2007 and has recently emerged as one of the top drivers at the Monster Mile each year. A few other notable mentions include Brad Keselowski who owns a solid 101.3 rating. Keselowski scored his only Dover win in 2012 and has a pair of runner-up finishes on his resume as well.

A few of the outliers include Alex Bowman who posted finishes of 3rd and 2nd in both Dover races last season. Bowman has quickly adapted to the Monster Mile in positive fashion and despite a recent run of subpar performances, Bowman’s value is elevated this week in his return to Dover. Other notable outliers include Joey Logano (81.4) who has struggled for his standards at Dover. Logano has failed to score a win at Dover in 22 career starts and has just 4 career top 5 finishes. Lastly, I would also point to Ryan Newman’s disappointing 63.8 average rating as somewhat surprising. Despite 3 career wins, Newman has struggled heavily in recent years at the Monster Mile with finishes outside the top 15 in 8 of his last 10 starts.

Drivers to Target

One of the reasons I am excited for both Cup Series races this weekend is because I believe we have several live underdogs that deserve betting attention. Before we move into the underdog discussion, let’s first lock-down our favorites. Statistics tell us Kevin Harvick is the deserving betting favorite this week and it would be hard to argue against the #4 team. Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin deserve consideration just on momentum alone. However, I believe Martin Truex is equally deserving of the overall favorite title. Truex and the #19 team have picked up their performance in recent weeks which comes at perfect timing. In the last 7 races at Dover, Truex has finished 4th or better with two victories. Therefore, I believe Truex is in position to challenge for a 4th career victory at the Monster Mile.

Aside from the known favorites, I believe Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson are two of my favorite drivers this week from an odds standpoint. I mentioned Keselowski’s recent performance in our loop data stats above and I would also add the fact that Team Penske has looked excellent under the short-track rules package this season. At 16 to 1 odds, Keselowski is a demanding betting option. For Jimmie Johnson, this is a race I have circled for the #48 team. Since witnessing the improvement by the Chevrolet teams especially on the shorter layouts, I have believed this would be Johnson’s best opportunity to score a win in his final season. I was high on Johnson’s performance potential last week at the inaugural Daytona road course event and that resulted in a 4th place finish for the 7-time champion. This week Johnson should be capable of running upfront again and perhaps challenge for a victory.

H2H Match-ups and Fantasy Targets

There are a few additional drivers that I would like to mention that should be trending in a positive direction this week. Alex Bowman and Clint Bowyer have struggled during the 2nd half of the season. However, both drivers have been solid at Dover in recent races. I mentioned earlier that Bowman finished in the top 3 in both Dover races last season. I am confident that both drivers can turn things around this week and produce quality performances. Whether it will be enough to challenge for a win remains to be seen however we can target both Bowman and Bowyer in fantasy/h2h formats.

From purely a fantasy perspective, I would also elevate Kyle Busch this week into the mix of potential fantasy favorites. Busch is having a forgettable season and his recent struggles tie into his 22nd starting position on Saturday. Despite the struggles and bad luck, Busch remains one of the top drivers in the series with legitimate top 5 upside. From a fantasy perspective, there is too much value to ignore. Lastly, I would probably throw Austin Dillon into a few lineups this week as well. After missing last Sunday’s race at Daytona due to a positive COVID-19 test, Dillon will be starting from the 32nd position which raises his ceiling this week after being cleared to return to competition. If you are specifically looking for cheap fantasy options for salary purposes, John Hunter Nemechek ($6,500) and Corey LaJoie ($5,900) are drivers that should move forward at dirt cheap prices.

Drivers to Fade

I am going to keep this section rather brief without too much explanation. However, I believe guys like Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin can be faded this week in match-ups. I rank those drivers specifically in that order from lowest-highest risk. Hamlin has been running extremely well all season and I thought he was worth fading last week at the Daytona road course. To my surprise, Hamlin finished 2nd and was thoroughly impressive. However, Hamlin is still being paired against the likes of Harvick and Truex this week at a track where he has not been very strong historically. Meanwhile, Dover just happens to be one of Joey Logano’s worst tracks where we may be able to find value in fade match-ups. Lastly, both Newman and Kenseth have been horrible throughout the 2020 season and come to a track where their skills have sharply faded in recent years in these new cars.

Draftkings 2020 Drydene 311 Optimal Lineup

2020 Drydene 311 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +1600 (1 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +2000 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +4500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Zane Smith +105 over Chandler Smith (Trucks win)
Martin Truex Jr +340 wins Drydene 311
Risking 1 unit to win: +800

H2H Match-ups

Jimmie Johnson -130 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Kyle Busch -115 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Alex Bowman +125 over Erik Jones (2 units)