2020 Drydene 311 Race 2 Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 23rd, 4:00PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Earlier today, Denny Hamlin proved yet again that he may just be the best driver in the Cup Series in 2020 by winning his 6th race of the season in the Drydene 311 at Dover International Speedway. Though the victory may not be surprising due to the #11 team’s recent success, Hamlin has never won previously at the Monster Mile and has been largely unimpressive from a statistical standpoint. However, Hamlin proved yet again the #11 team is the leading championship contender. Tomorrow the Cup Series will have another opportunity at the Monster Mile with the 2nd race in the Drydene 311 and we look to capitalize on yet another betting opportunity with our 2020 Drydene 311 race #2 race picks!

Over the last two races, I thought Hamlin would be fade worthy (among the favorites) at tracks that historically did not suit his driving style. Instead, Hamlin has put together two of his more impressive performances of the season with a runner-up finish at the Daytona road course and the victory today at the Monster Mile. Hamlin showed high driver IQ by changing his line to find grip in the closing laps and simply outdrove Martin Truex who was struggling with a loose race car. Overall, it was a great afternoon for Joe Gibbs Racing that finished in the top 3 positions with Hamlin, Truex, and Kyle Busch who needed a good finish to turn around his recent run of bad luck. Going into Sunday’s race, it will be hard to ignore the JGR cars and their potential to battle for another victory.

Going into Saturday’s race, Truex was the leading betting favorite at 3.5 to 1 odds and Hamlin was listed as the 3rd betting favorite which hovered around 5 to 1 odds depending on the sportsbook. Obviously today’s performance from both drivers does not help their odds value going into Sunday. However, I do believe we will have live underdog options to consider behind Truex and Hamlin who should grab most of the betting attention. Luckily, I already have a parlay to close from today’s Xfinity Series race which will help include some of the favorites on our lineup. I took Truex in yesterday’s line-up which was a tough loss to watch over the last few laps. However, I believe that is the best plan for Sunday to attack the #11 and/or #19 with parlays and look for the odds value behind those two drivers.

Drivers to Target

Aside from Hamlin and Truex, I remain very high on guys like Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch as emerging challengers on Sunday. I had Keselowski on my betting card on Saturday at 16 to 1 odds which was just criminal and I would be ecstatic to get a number similar on Sunday. Additionally, I nearly put Kyle Busch on my line-up earlier today as well. I had Busch in the form of H2H match-ups but held off on his win odds mainly out of fear of all the recent bad finishes. In hindsight, Busch’s 12 to 1 odds going into Saturday’s race were extremely solid for a 3-time Dover winner that has the perfect skill set for a track like Dover. I’m sure those odds will diminish on Sunday. However, I am not convinced Busch has hit his ceiling for the weekend and that #18 car was very close to showing “winning” speed.

In the form of H2H match-ups, Erik Jones and Ricky Stenhouse are among my sharp targets. Admittedly, I failed everyone on missing Stenhouse’s H2H potential going into Saturday’s race. Stenhouse has historically been solid at Dover which runs parallel to his success at Bristol yet he was criminally undervalued in H2H match-ups. Hopefully odds do not overadjust going into Sunday after a 10th place finish because the #47 deserves more respect this week. For Erik Jones, I was really impressed by the #20 team’s speed despite the early accident which ruined the left rear of the car.

Considering JGR teammates finished in the top 3 positions, we have to wonder what Jones’ ceiling may have been without the accident? Jones will go to a backup car on Sunday which raises his risk. However, I feel like the #20 team knows exactly what they need, from a setup standpoint, to be fast again on Sunday with all of their drivers having success. Jones is on the chase bubble and you know JGR is going to give the team needed attention to ensure all 4 drivers make the chase. As a result, I expect the #20 to be strong on Sunday.

Drivers to Fade

If we are looking for drivers to fade in the form of H2H match-ups on Sunday, Aric Almirola and Ryan Blaney are some excellent choices to bet against in match-ups. Blaney was the worst of the Team Penske cars which should not be too surprising considering Blaney’s track record at the Monster Mile. Through 9 races, Blaney’s best career finish is 8th and he has finished outside the top 10 in 7 out of 9 starts. Meanwhile, Aric Almirola is a driver that I faded in one match-up earlier today which was not necessarily by design. I was actually targeting Jimmie Johnson more than I was fading the #10 car. However, I was surprised by how ineffective Almirola was throughout the afternoon. To be fair, the team got behind on an unscheduled pit stop in the opening stage. However, they also never showed the speed to overcome the mistake. When you consider the drivers Almirola has been paired against in recent weeks, we have some legitimate fade value on the #10 car.

There are some other drivers that I will be waiting to see in particular match-ups. I would not necessarily call these drivers all out fade targets. However, I do believe guys like Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and Ryan Newman have likely reached their ceiling for the weekend. The reason I make that comment is that I believe those drivers all executed well today and optimized their finishing positions. I was not impressed with Logano or Elliott in terms of speed; I have also documented Newman’s struggles in recent weeks and at Dover. As a result, I would expect these drivers to slide down the leaderboard on Sunday compared to their Saturday finishes.

Fantasy Targets

The top 20 finishing positions will be inverted for Sunday’s starting lineup putting Matt DiBenedetto on the pole. For fantasy purposes, Erik Jones may be the only driver in the top 8-10 starting positions that is worthy of fantasy consideration. The majority of the guys starting upfront will fall down the lineup once the green flag waves yielding negative place-differential and limited value. On the other hand, Jones is one of the few guys that may be able to maintain his position and possibly even move forward. For clarification, Jones will actually be starting at the rear in a back-up car but will be credited with the 8th place position. Despite going to the rear, I believe the #20 will have excellent speed which they showed today with a destroyed race car. Therefore, keep the #20 on your radar to be mixed into fantasy rosters.

Among the favorites, we could make a legitimate argument to have both Truex and Hamlin as our fantasy anchors for Sunday and build line-ups around those drivers. However, I think Kyle Busch is an equally deserving pivot among the favorites for a slightly cheaper price. In the intermediate range of drivers, I really like the value presented for guys like Clint Bowyer ($8,200) and Kurt Busch ($8,300). The elder Busch was involved in an early wreck on Saturday and will resort to a backup car from the 28th starting position which provides a strong opportunity to move several positions forward. Meanwhile, Bowyer is an equally valuable option from the 15th position. Bowyer was a top 5 driver for nearly the entire race on Saturday and yields solid fantasy value yet again for Sunday based on his salary price.

Due to the unique starting position format, it is going to be difficult to find value on the really cheap drivers. Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,300) is definitely an option but his ceiling is severely limited. Christopher Bell ($6,900) is perhaps one of the more rational options. Bell did not look overly impressive on Saturday which is surprising given his success on short-tracks throughout his young career. Still, Bell has considerable value based on salary price and starting position (24th). If you are looking for even cheaper options, unfortunately I believe it is a complete guessing game once you get to the bottom 10 drivers. Corey LaJoie ($5,500) and Daniel Suarez ($5,700) are reasonable options. Personally, I believe most of the bottom 10 options have similar value in terms of place-differential. Simply try to choose the driver that you believe has the highest finishing possibility.

Draftkings 2020 Drydene 311 Race #2 Optimal Lineup

2020 Drydene 311 Race #2 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +1700 (.75 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +1900 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +3000 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +4500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Haley +125 over Brandon Jones (Xfinity win from Saturday)
Kyle Busch +665 wins Drydene 311 Race 2
Risking 1 unit to win: +1620

Martin Truex Jr +340 wins Drydene 311 Race 2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +125 over Matt Kenseth
Risking 1 unit to win: +1100

H2H Match-ups

Erik Jones +100 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson -115 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Alex Bowman +115 over Matt DiBenedetto (2 units)
Ty Dillon +550 wins Group F (JHN, McDowell, and Preece)(1 unit)