2020 Drydene 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 22nd, 2020 12:30PM EST at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series will host back to back races on Saturday and Sunday alongside the Cup Series this weekend at the Monster Mile. Xfinity and Cup Series teams have raced together on the same day previously this season, most notably at Homestead and Pocono. However, this will be the first time in NASCAR history both series compete in consecutive double-headers with 4 races over the course of two days. From a betting standpoint, this weekend’s action-packed schedule provides a crucial stretch of races where we need to take advantage of numerous betting opportunities. As a result, we turn our focus towards Saturday’s opening event and provide our 2020 Drydene 200 race picks for Dover!

As I stated in the Truck Series preview, Dover is a rather unique track unlike any other on the circuit. The one-mile concrete surface is extremely fast and yields a unique driving style that is often obtained through experience. Raw aerodynamic speed advantages from the top teams are reduced slightly by the shorter layout and the challenges of tackling the Monster Mile play heavier into the driver’s hands. As a result, we could have a slight change of pace among the frontrunners this week. Austin Cindric has provided one of the greatest stretches in Xfinity Series history over the last several weeks with 5 wins in 6 races. We know the #22 has been the fastest car at the 1.5 mile tracks and Cindric has been the best driver at the road courses which have provided the perfect storm for Cindric’s success over the last several races. While Cindric will deservingly be among the favorites again on Saturday, Dover is a completely different type of test that should allow more parity at the front of the field.

Drivers to Target

Cindric’s recent dominance has tied him with Chase Briscoe for the most wins (5) on the season. Both Cindric and Briscoe are the top two betting favorites going into Saturday’s opening race. However between both drivers, Briscoe is the only driver with a victory at a short-track which came at Iowa last year. Therefore, I’m not convinced either driver is worthy of the betting odds they are currently receiving. I actually believe Justin Allgaier is the best driver at Dover that is in the field this weekend. Allgaier has posted top 3 finishes in 5 of his last 6 starts at Dover including a victory in 2018. If you consider the speed the #7 displayed back at Bristol into the mix, this appears to be the perfect opportunity for Allgaier to end his recent run of bad luck.

Odds makers seem to have the same sentiment this week as Allgaier has been listed with his lowest betting odds of the season. Despite the over evaluation, Allgaier remains the sharpest pick in all betting formats and likely has more value in H2H situations. Both Noah Gragson and Harrison Burton are decent intermediate range picks. I personally believe Gragson has the better shot of winning which he proved on a somewhat similar layout at Bristol earlier this year. Gragson has always run well at Dover going back to his Truck Series starts and is a live underdog going into the weekend. Purely from an odds standpoint, Ross Chastain and Justin Haley have the most value. Both guys are better drivers than the results have shown this season and Dover is a track where the driver can shine from behind the wheel. Haley finished 4th at Dover in Driver Sober 200 last year with Kaulig Racing. Meanwhile, Chastain has never got a chance to compete at Dover in decent equipment but has the proven skill set for this type of race.

Drivers to Fade

I personally don’t have many drivers that I am specifically targeting to fade this weekend. I am sure we will have some better fade targets going into race #2 on Sunday. With that being said, I don’t believe Chase Briscoe is worthy of the overall top favorite spot. I believe there will be some underdog value in match-ups against Briscoe though it is always risky betting against one of the top drivers in the series. Anthony Alfredo made a strong impression for Richard Childress Racing in the #21 car at Kansas with a pair of 6th place finishes. While Alfredo has shown flashes of potential, I believe the driver of the #21 will struggle this week in his first career start at Dover among NASCAR’s touring series. Likewise, I also believe this is a bad situational and skill set match-up for Riley Herbst in the #18 car. Both Alfredo and Herbst have shown some good signs at the intermediate layouts but I believe they will struggle more than most anticipate this weekend.

Fantasy Targets

In Saturday’s relatively short race, Austin Cindric has the best possibility to lead several early laps thanks to the P1 starting position. The question will be how long can Cindric hold onto the top position? Either way, Cindric provides comfortable fantasy potential with both a high floor and high ceiling as long as he avoids trouble. If I am constructing one single line-up, I am putting Justin Allgaier into an anchor position and hoping he can shake off the streak of bad luck in recent weeks.

Based on starting positions and potential, Justin Haley and Jeb Burton are among my favorite fantasy drivers this week in the realm of overall value. Haley will be looking to build off last year’s 4th position and his fantasy value gets a boost from the 21st starting position. Meanwhile, Jeb Burton will be starting back in the 27th position with similar high floor/high ceiling potential barring any misfortune. Burton’s results in the Xfinity Series have not been very impressive from a holistic point of view but he has always been solid at the Monster Mile. Burton has very realistic top 10 potential and that provides options for fantasy owners. If you are looking for deeper flier options, Jeffrey Earnhradt, Josh Williams, and Timmy Hill all have potential upside to be mixed into fantasy line-ups.

Draftkings Drydene 200 Optimal Lineup

2020 Drydene 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +400 (1.5 units)
Harrison Burton +900 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +1400 (.75 unit)
Justin Haley +3300 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Haley +125 over Brandon Jones
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Justin Allgaier +100 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Jeb Burton -110 over Anthony Alfredo (2 units)
Michael Annett +135 over Riley Herbst (2 units)