2020 Drydene 200 Race 2 Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 22nd, 2020 1:00PM EST at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Earlier today, our top betting pick in Justin Allgaier scored his 1st victory of the season in the Drydene 200 at Dover International Speedway. Allgaier has been fantastic at the Monster Mile in recent years with top 3 finishes in 7 of his last 8 starts including two victories during that stretch. Tomorrow Allgaier will have the opportunity to go after another victory when the Xfinity Series resets for round 2 at the Monster Mile. With a quick turnaround in the windshield, we will take a brief look at what we learned during today’s race and discuss the best betting options for Sunday in our 2020 Drydene 200 race #2 race picks!

Since we have a quick turnaround for tomorrow’s race along with the Cup Series, I am going to keep this preview rather brief because I thought Saturday’s Drydene 200 went as expected. I thought today’s race was one of the better handicapping races that I have put together in the last few Xfinity Series races and I don’t foresee any major changes on Sunday since teams will be returning the same equipment. The only exception to that statement may be the #98 of Chase Briscoe who will request to go to a backup car. However, Briscoe must still get NASCAR’s approval for that request to be granted.

With that being said, it was pretty clear that the top two drivers this afternoon involved the #7 of race winner Justin Allgaier and the #22 of Austin Cindric. Cindric hounded Allgaier throughout the entire final stage and likely had the faster car for much of the race. However, the Monster Mile provides a very tough challenge for passing cars that are equally fast and Cindric never got to sniff clean air during the final stages of Saturday’s race. For tomorrow’s encore in the Drydene 200, I believe it will likely come down to another battle between the #7 and #22 teams barring any unforeseen circumstances. Once again, it could come down to the driver that can establish the best track position in the closing laps.

Drivers to Target

Aside from Allgaier and Cindric who will be overwhelming favorites, Ross Chastain likely has the best chance to play the spoiler role. I had Chastain on my betting car earlier today at 13 to 1 odds and he was impressive throughout the afternoon resulting in a 3rd place finish. I mentioned previously that Chastain has always run well at Dover but has never been in competitive equipment to display his potential ceiling. With another day to make some slight improvements, Chastain is within striking distance and is possibly an even better H2H match-up target against all other competitors outside of Allgaier and Cindric.

Judging by today’s closing odds and how things unfolded, I imagine win odds will be extremely saturated. The most likely path to profits tomorrow will likely entail H2H match-ups which is why I was so quick to mention Chastain above. However, I do believe guys like Harrison Burton and Riley Herbst may be potential dark horses that provide value in terms of win odds. I was very impressed with Herbst’s performance earlier today and the #18 actually got better as the race progressed. I suspected Harrison Burton would be strong and I would imagine he may be even better on Sunday after a solid 4th place finish this afternoon.

For additional H2H targets, I am confident in Daniel Hemric’s H2H value. I had Jeb Burton in H2H match-up and fantasy lineups earlier today in the #8 car which proved to be successful. To be clear, the #8 car did not look great early in the race but was solid after a few adjustments which should help Hemric who takes over the #8 machine on Sunday. Burton rallied to bring home a 7th place finish on Saturday and I believe the #8 team will get a driver upgrade for Sunday’s race which raises their ceiling. As a result, Hemric deserves sharp H2H value.

Drivers to Fade

Before today’s race, I called out Chase Briscoe as a potential fade option because I did not feel like he was worthy of the top betting favorite position. After spinning early in the race, Briscoe rallied to salvage a 10th place finish and reportedly requested to go to a backup car pending NASCAR’s approval. Whether or not the approval is granted, I still don’t believe Briscoe is worthy of being in the same odds category as Allgaier and Cindric which presents potential fade possibilities. Another driver that I am debating belongs in the fade category involves Riley Herbst in the #18 car.

I know I stated earlier that Herbst has some dark horse potential but that is because Herbst was such a big long shot going into Saturday’s race. I expect he will have relatively big odds again on Sunday which deserves some attention in the event he is even better on day 2. However, the realistic side of me believes Herbst likely hit his ceiling in the opening race today. When I look through the lineup and competitors, I believe Herbst will have a big challenge to repeat his success on Sunday and it would not be surprising to see him fall towards the border of the top 10. Therefore, if we can find some underdog type odds to fade Herbst, it may be a reasonable option to fade the #18 simply based on probability factors.

Fantasy Targets

The top 15 finishing positions will be inverted on Sunday to provide more value to guys like Justin Allgaier and Austin Cindric who both dominated today’s race. Personally, I don’t see any way we leave either driver off our fantasy line-ups this week if we are compiling a single optimal lineup. Those two drivers deserve to anchor fantasy line-ups and we should put our focus towards filling in value throughout the rest of our lineup. Another potential fantasy option includes the #19 of Brandon Jones who provides a decent pivot option among the main favorites. Jones was a borderline top 5 car on Saturday but spun in the final stage. Jones attempted to stay on the race track after the spin but his tires were shot which caused the #19 to freefall to the #16 place position. Therefore, expect Jones to move forward at the start of tomorrow’s Drydene 200.

For cheaper value options, I am putting focus towards place differential value. There are not many drivers starting towards the rear with big upside which means value will be hard to find deep in the field. Since the top 15 are inverted, some of the intermediate guys like Jeremy Clements, Brett Moffitt, Anthony Alfredo, and others are likely facing negative place-differential which hurts their value. Not to mention if those drivers have trouble, it could ruin line-ups. Personally, I believe Josh Williams is a solid option at just $7,400. Williams had a subpar afternoon on Saturday and has a much higher ceiling for Sunday’s round 2. Even cheaper options surround guys like B.J McLeod, Chad Finchum, and Timmy Hill who are dirt cheap with place differential value and have the possibility to yield salary relief.

Draftkings Drydene 200 Race #2 Optimal Lineup

2020 Drydene 200 Race #2 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +275 (2 units)
Harrison Burton +1400 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +1500 (.75 unit)
Riley Herbst +6000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Anthony Alfredo +170 over Justin Haley
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Brandon Jones +100 over Justin Haley (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -140 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Ross Chastain -140 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)