2020 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 10th, 2020 3:30PM EST at Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Charlotte Motor Speedway will unveil their prestigious ROVAL layout this weekend for both Xfinity and Cup Series teams as playoff action intensifies in NASCAR’s backyard. The Xfinity Series will kick off the action on Saturday with the running of the Drive for the Cure 250 which will be the final race in the Round of 12 for the Xfinity Series playoffs. Currently both Chase Briscoe and Justin Haley are locked into the next round thanks to their victories at Las Vegas and Talladega. However, some of the expected challengers in the championship race like Ross Chastain, Harrison Burtons, and others are in dire need of a strong run to keep their championship hopes alive.

From a betting standpoint, Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250 may not be the most intriguing Xfinity Series event of the season mainly because Austin Cindric’s dominance on the road course layouts leave little to the imagination. Cindric’s prominence on road courses became obvious last year when he scored the 1st and 2nd wins of Xfinity Series career at Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio. As everyone is aware, Cindric has compiled a breakout season with 5 wins which includes victories at the last two road course layouts at Road America and the Daytona Road Course. This week Cindric will once again be the heavy favorite as he looks to keep the trend going and score a prestigious victory on Charlotte’s ROVAL.

*Also please note that rain is expected throughout the weekend in Charlotte. Saturday’s race could be postponed or if conditions are not too severe; NASCAR has the option of utilizing rain tires. Obviously, racing in the rain increases handicapping risk of mistakes/accidents. With that in mind, Justin Haley and Chase Briscoe were two drivers that performed exceptionally well at Road America on rain tires during the middle of the Henry 180.

Betting Advice and Targets

Due to Cindric’s success at the road courses, the driver of the #22 car is listed at just +150 betting odds which is absurd historically for an Xfinity Series regular. Though Cindric deserves the heavy favorite status, his odds are not exactly rational to target in win formats. The reason is because both Chase Briscoe and AJ Allmendinger are former ROVAL winners. In fact, Briscoe and Allmendinger are the only drivers that have won on the ROVAL due to the event being recently introduced in 2018.

Allmendinger dominated this event last year and Briscoe has shown strength on the road course layouts on several occasions including an impressive victory at the Indianapolis Grand Prix. As a result, it would not be surprising to see any of these drivers capture a victory and it could come down to the driver that simply gets track position in the closing laps. Honestly, I believe all 3 drivers should be closely ranked for the ROVAL layout. If you buy-in to that belief, Cindric’s odds really don’t make much sense. Meanwhile Briscoe and Allmendinger’s odds are so low, you could likely only bet 1 driver to retain value.

Instead of exposing too many wagers to risky bets, I think we can approach this race with a low risk/high reward strategy and put bigger focus on H2H bets. If you are brave enough to fade the top 3 betting favorites, there is some serious value in guys like Noah Gragson, Ross Chastain, Kaz Grala, and even Alex Labbe who have displayed serious road course talent. Obviously Gragson and Chastain are more realistic dark horse options but these road course layouts always have a strategy element that could produce a surprise victor. In this scenario based on the odds presented, I think this strategy makes the most sense with the majority of the sharp betting value geared towards H2H match-ups.

Handicapping the ROVAL

If you look below, I compiled the driver ratings for all 3 road course races in the Xfinity Series this season which should provide bettors and fantasy players with a solid baseline of how to gauge this week’s drivers road course skills. However, I would also call out the fact that the results from Daytona likely carry more weight than the others. If you remember back at Daytona, I basically described Daytona’s road course as another ROVAL and there are a ton of similarities between the two tracks. Therefore, I think you can give slightly more credit to not only the Daytona RC event but also prior races at the ROVAL which provide a solid baseline for our expectations.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Indy G.P	Road America	Daytona RC
Austin Cindric	140.4	127.1	145.8	148.3
Chase Briscoe	120.6	146.4	112.8	102.7
A.J. Allmendinger	117.4	104.8	127.8	119.7
Noah Gragson	106.1	110.9	106.9	100.6
Justin Allgaier	99.3	115.6	84.5	97.7
Andy Lally	98.6		88.2	109
Ross Chastain	96.9	103.3	100.5	87
Kaz Grala	94.4		94.4
Justin Haley	93.5	118.2	103.8	58.5
Harrison Burton	89.4	78.7	83.2	106.2
Alex Labbe	83.8	94.2	85.7	71.5
Preston Pardus	81.6	78.3	96.6	70
Riley Herbst	80.5	74.2	68.3	99
Jeremy Clements	79.3	85.5	63.5	89
Michael Annett	77.9	83	75.3	75.5
Brandon Jones	77.8	78	61	94.5
Anthony Alfredo	74.3	74.3
Ryan Sieg	71.6	74.7	86.8	53.4
Earl Bamber	70.0			70
Josh Bilicki	69.9	58.7	75.4	75.7
Myatt Snider	68.1	77	56.3	71
Brandon Brown	66.7	75.2	71.5	53.5
Jade Buford	65.2	65.8	57.5	72.2
Brandon Gdovic	60.6	74.2		47
Scott Heckert	60.5		55	66
Kyle Weatherman	60.5	69.3	49.5	62.7
R.C Enerson	60.2		60.2
Josh Williams	59.6	58.5	76.2	44.2
Timmy Hill	57.2	57.2
Tommy Joe Martins	57.1	44.8	64.4	62
Jesse Little	54.2	56.3	45.2	61
Stephen Leicht	53.9	49.3	51.8	60.5
Jeb Burton	47.5	47.5
Daniel Hemric	46.0		43.3	48.7
Mike Wallace	45.7	46.7	47	43.3
Bayley Currey	41.3	37.8	26	60.2
Joe Graf, Jr.	40.1	43.8	40.7	35.7
B.J. McLeod	38.9	31.5		46.2
Matt Mills	38.6	35.5		41.7
Jeffrey Earnhardt	37.8	32	39	42.5
Kody Vanderwal	37.1	37.2	36.7	37.3
Brett Moffitt	34.3	34.3
Bobby Reuse	30.3			30.3
Chad Finchum	30.0	34.3	25.7
Vinnie Miller	28.2	27.5	28.8
Harold Crooms	25.8			25.8

Drivers to Fade

I know the data provided above helps us formulate fade and target opinions so hopefully everyone finds it useful. However, data only helps when we can analyze the information in the correct betting rationale. For betting purposes regarding drivers to fade, we need to not only identify the drivers that struggle at road course layouts but also pivot that information where oddsmakers may have higher expectations to find sharp variance. Under that specific criteria, I am finding fade value in match-ups against the likes of Daniel Hemric and Brandon Jones.

Brandon Jones has always struggled at the road courses. Even though Jones exceeded expectations at Daytona, we should not expect similar results again when looking at his larger body of work. Meanwhile, I cannot understand why Hemric is favored in most of his early match-ups. For example, Hemric is currently listed as a big favorite over Harrison Burton. Despite Hemric’s struggles at road course races, Burton has actually improved in every start and is listed at +135 in a 50/50 style match-up if not better. These are the types of examples where we have to exploit oddsmakers and rely on the law of large numbers.

Fantasy Targets

Due to starting positions, AJ Allmendinger has the biggest ceiling out of this week’s fantasy drivers and he is adequately priced for that potential at $11,500. Shortly behind Allmendinger, Austin Cindric ($11,000) has the most probabilistic ceiling with another reasonable price tag. I firmly believe both Allmendinger and Cindric are affordable on the same line-ups this week because there are a few drivers that provide cheap value that can help build a strong lineup from top to bottom. Among the drivers that could also return value include the likes of Noah Gragson ($9,800) who is starting on the pole. I believe Gragson is a dark horse this weekend and he has the ability to lead many early laps based on the starting grid.

Outside of the favorites, Preston Pardus ($8,300) is an excellent value play from the 30th starting position. Pardus posted two top 10 finishes in his first two starts on road course layouts this season at Indy and Road America. Pardus got into trouble at Daytona but he remains a solid road course talent with considerable fantasy upside. In a similar price range, Alex Labbe ($7,700) and Austin Hill ($7,600) appear to have solid upside as well. Labbe has proven to be successful at this style of racing and I would take a gamble on Hill’s talent considering his deep starting spot. Meanwhile, flier options include guys like Josh Bilicki ($7,000), Gray Gaulding ($6,000) and Kyle Weatherman ($6,100) are decent fantasy options that have shown road course talent in the past and despite inferior equipment; all drivers should be able to move forward from their starting positions.

Draftkings Drive for the Cure 250 Optimal Lineup

2020 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +425 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1200 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +1600 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2000 (.5 unit)
Kaz Grala +2500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Haley +125 over Justin Allgaier
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Justin Haley -145 over Kaz Grala (2 units)
Brandon Brown -115 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)
Riley Herbst +125 over Michael Annett (3 units)
Harrison Burton +135 over Daniel Hemric (3 units)