2020 Draft Top 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday October 31st, 3:30PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the first time in 14 years, the Xfinity Series will return to Martinsville Speedway for Saturday’s running of the Draft Top 250. The last time the Xfinity Series competed at Martinsville was back in 2006 when a fairly young Cup Series veteran by the name of Kevin Harvick scored a victory in the Goody’s 250. If you want further history at Martinsville before the 2006 race, you would have to go all the way back to 1994 in a race that was won by Kenny Wallace. Needless to say, the Xfinity Series regulars competing on Saturday have minimal stock car experience at the half-mile paperclip and that should make things exciting with just one race remaining to decide the Championship 4 that will race for the title next week at Phoenix!

In the realm of handicapping, Saturday’s 250 lap event at Martinsville is not exactly ideal for establishing predictions. Not only do we have limited historical data but there is no other track on the Xfinity Series schedule that draws a close comparison to Martinsville. We can review the extensive history of drivers’ resumes that may point us in the right direction and provide high level speculation on specific driving styles that should excel at Martinsville. However, all of those betting angles are far from reliable and though time is running out on the 2020 season; I would be lying to say this is a good handicapping opportunity. Still, we will discuss some potential angles and provide some betting options to consider for Saturday’s event.

Betting Targets

In terms of driving styles, Martinsville can favor those drivers that traditionally perform well at road courses. While Martinsville is definitely not a road course, it is a track that produces heavy braking zones. Drivers need to be able to get on the brakes hard and maximize drive-off on the straightaways to produce quality laps. I’m not necessarily stating that road course skills are required to run well at Martinsville but it has shown some correlating trends over the years. With that in mind and comparing drivers’ resumes, I feel confident stating that Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger should be strong on Saturday. Allmendinger surprisingly performed well in the Cup Series at Martinsville and he has proved the #16 is capable of winning already this season.

Honestly, I was slightly surprised to see Allmendinger listed at just 7 to 1 odds this week despite his trends of strong performances. There are a big group of drivers listed at 10 to 1 odds or less and foolishly I expected odds to be better. As a result, I’m not sure if Cindric or Allmendinger provide the most probabilistic value. Instead, I believe drivers like Ross Chastain and Noah Gragson deserve betting consideration. Chastain has been the most consistent driver in the series this season. Chastain finally gets a chance to showcase their strength on a track where he has plenty of experience and is not at an aero disadvantage. Meanwhile, Noah Gragson had his best Truck Series performances of his career at Martinsville with finishes of 4th, 1st, 5th, and 7th in 4 career starts. I know Xfinity Series cars handle differently than the trucks but Gragson immediately proved to have a strong skill set for this layout so I expect that trend to continue on Saturday in an Xfinity Series field that majorly lacks experience at the paperclip.

Long Shots

I know there have not been many winners this season in any of NASCAR’s series in the long shot categories. The back to back wins by Cole Custer and Austin Dillon in the Cup Series provided the type of big odds wins that bettors seek. Unfortunately, there just have not been enough of those types of wins in the 2020 season. With that being said, I’m still not ruling out an upset candidate this weekend. Martinsville is one of those tracks where you can gamble with track position and passing is very difficult which are key ingredients for an upset victory. For those reasons, I will have a few long shots on my roster this week. Brett Moffitt has been excellent in the Trucks at Martinsville and though he may be in inferior equipment; Moffitt still has some lottery value at 66 to 1 odds considering this is a venue where you can overcome equipment concerns.

I would also throw the likes of Jeb Burton and Ryan Sieg into the long shot category for legitimate consideration this week. Burton has some experience at Martinsville and he has been close to pulling off wins in the #8 car for J.R. Motorsports this season. At 44 to 1 odds, Burton at least deserves consideration. Meanwhile, I have no idea about Ryan Sieg’s skill set for Martinsville. However, he has finished inside the top 5 in 3 of the last 5 races. Sieg also finished in the 3rd position at one of the hardest tracks in NASCAR by way of Darlington earlier this year. Currently, Sieg is listed at enormous 125 to 1 betting odds which is almost too good to pass up for a driver that has proven to be able to run at the front of the field on occasions.

Drivers to Fade

For clarity once again, all of this week’s expectations are cautious predictions because we don’t have a lot of insight to the Xfinity Series on this type of venue. With that in mind, I still believe fading the likes of Brandon Jones and Chase Briscoe will be sharp plays. I called out Brandon Jones as a fade candidate in our Truck Series preview and he proved why he was getting the extra laps at Martinsville in Friday night’s truck race; Jones needs all the help he can get and did not look good in one of the best trucks in the series. Like Briscoe, Jones has minimal Martinsville experience and I think that will play a big factor this weekend. Obviously, Briscoe is a more risky fade option due to his success throughout the season. I’m just not convinced Briscoe deserves to be the overall favorite. Briscoe has not been exactly great at the short tracks and he is another driver that I would expect to struggle to an extent on Saturday.

2020 Draft Top 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Draft Top 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +700 (1 unit)
Noah Gragson +1000 (1 unit)
Jeb Burton +4400 (.5 unit)
Brett Moffitt +6600 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +12500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Jeb Burton -115 over Myatt Snider (3 units)
Noah Gragson -115 over Harrison Burton (3 units)
AJ Allmendinger -125 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Jeb Burton +13000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ryan Sieg +3000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)