2020 Dixie Vodka 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday June 14th, 3:47PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Fresh on the heels of a mid-week night race at Martinsville, the Cup Series prepares for another quick turnaround on Sunday as they attempt to tackle the difficult Homestead-Miami Speedway in the running of the Dixie Vodka 400. For the first time in the playoff era, Homestead-Miami Speedway will not be the host of the season finale to determine the Cup Series Championship as that luxury was moved to Phoenix Raceway in 2020 among many other schedule changes. All races in Homestead-Miami Speedway’s history have been held in November going back to 1999. For the first time, we will get Cup Series racing on a hot and extremely slick surface when the green flag waves on Sunday.

Temperatures will be approaching 90 degrees on Sunday and once again rain will likely threaten the afternoon’s festivities. Once we are able to see green flag racing, I am expecting extremely challenging conditions. Not just for the weather but mainly because the Cup Series has never raced on during the mid-summer months at Homestead. The average temperature for the last 5 races at Homestead has been in the low 70s and now these teams will attempt to dial-in their setups on a low-grip surface that has been sun-bathing in the hot sun. There will be Xfinity and Truck Series races on Saturday which should help build rubber into the track. Then again if it does rain before the start we could be dealing with another green racetrack. Last week at Martinsville, we witnessed several of the top favorites go a lap down during the first green flag run due to missing the setups at the start of the race and I assume we will see another wave of surprises at the drop of the green flag.

Fortunately the Cup Series has raced at several race tracks in recent weeks with similarities to Homestead-Miami Speedway in terms of tire wear and low-grip conditions. Homestead-Miami Speedway is a multi-groove racetrack unlike Darlington or Atlanta in terms of banking. However, the surface structure is relatively similar with the high tire wear and fall off in lap times. The challenging aspect for teams will be dialing-in the balance in the setup without any practice time. Still we have seen some of these circumstances play out in recent weeks and perhaps we have some baseline expectations that we can take into Homestead combined with some historical trends to find a winning betting combination!

Homestead-Miami Speedway Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Busch	124.1	4.2	3.4	2.8	3.4	29	165	153	226	1336
Kevin Harvick	121.5	7.4	3.0	3.2	3.4	19	209	131	224	1336
Joey Logano	114.9	8.8	5.4	4.0	5.2	7	216	64	158	1336
Martin Truex Jr	108.4	5.0	8.4	10.6	6.8	-8	199	121	204	1325
Denny Hamlin	100.3	1.6	9.4	10.0	9.0	10	255	55	43	1336
Brad Keselowski	96.9	5.4	8.6	13.6	9.0	14	211	34	87	1323
Matt Kenseth	96.0	11.8	8.5	7.0	9.5	30	184	12	0	1069
Chase Elliott	91.8	12.0	11.0	9.5	11.3	25	227	26	0	1068
Kurt Busch	87.0	11.6	12.2	14.8	12.4	18	204	21	0	1332
Austin Dillon	86.1	16.4	12.2	11.2	13.0	13	236	11	0	1336
Jimmie Johnson	86.1	17.0	14.2	12.8	13.8	84	220	30	3	1332
Ryan Newman	82.0	10.2	14.6	14.6	13.8	1	189	3	0	1332
Erik Jones	80.5	12.3	17.3	17.0	15.0	-18	98	7	0	796
Clint Bowyer	72.8	21.8	18.4	18.4	19.0	7	191	5	0	1112
Ryan Blaney	72.6	9.4	20.2	20.0	19.4	-49	164	30	0	1328
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	71.3	14.4	17.4	20.4	17.8	9	137	16	1	1326
Alex Bowman	67.8	19.3	25.5	20.0	22.5	9	45	5	0	1063
Aric Almirola	67.0	16.6	23.6	26.0	23.2	-13	78	19	0	1218
William Byron	66.9	18.5	16.0	31.5	19.5	-10	69	4	0	481
Daniel Suarez	65.2	15.0	15.7	26.0	18.3	0	61	2	0	753
Michael McDowell	56.8	26.0	27.2	24.2	24.8	-30	31	22	2	1323
Ty Dillon	55.2	29.2	23.4	25.6	23.4	10	33	3	0	1317
Chris Buescher	53.9	25.8	24.8	20.8	25.3	-19	23	2	0	1063
Bubba Wallace	50.3	25.0	24.5	27.5	27.0	-1	1	0	0	509
Matt DiBenedetto	44.0	29.8	30.0	28.0	29.8	-40	17	10	0	1319
Ryan Preece	40.6	34.5	36.0	31.5	32.0	-21	6	5	0	525
J.J. Yeley	39.9	32.7	34.3	32.0	32.3	-13	9	0	0	787
Corey LaJoie	36.7	32.3	32.7	32.0	33.0	-7	5	4	0	781
B.J. McLeod	32.3	37.5	35.0	33.5	35.0	11	0	0	0	512
Reed Sorenson	29.0	36.3	37.0	34.7	36.7	4	0	0	0	707
Timmy Hill	26.9	39.0	38.0	35.0	38.0	3	0	0	0	502

Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick lead our loop data ratings this week with impressive 120 plus average ratings over the last 5 races at Homestead. Busch has actually won 2 of the last 5 races at Homestead. Meanwhile guys like Martin Truex (2017), Joey Logano (2018) , and Denny Hamlin (2009 and 2013) all sport 100 plus ratings and are recent winners at Homestead. Hamlin and Busch are actually the only two drivers in the entire field that have multiple wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway which is rather surprising compared to typical venues.

Other notable mentions deriving from our loop data includes Austin Dillon (86.1) and Chase Elliott (91.8) who are likely guys to keep on your radar this week. Elliott rarely shows up on loop data stats because of his relatively young career combined with Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) struggles over the last few years. However, Elliott has actually posted finishes of 11th, 5th, 7th, and 15th in his 4 career starts which is pretty solid. Furthermore, Elliott has been one of the best drivers throughout 2020 on a near weekly basis which definitely boosts Elliott’s stock going into the weekend. For Austin Dillon, he has quietly put together solid finishes throughout his career at Homestead. More importantly, the #3 team has been solid this year at the 1.5 mile surfaces including finishes of 4th at Las Vegas, 8th at Charlotte, and 11th most recently at Atlanta. Dillon is another driver that is having a vastly improved 2020 campaign thanks to Chevrolet’s resurgence and I believe Dillon should be strongly considered across H2H/fantasy formats for Homestead.

Drivers To Target

Like each week, there are several drivers capable of winning but few will have more resounding arguments around them than Kevin Harvick. Harvick has finished 4th or better in the last 6 races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. When we talk about the surface and weather conditions going into Sunday, Harvick again stands out with wins at Darlington and again last week at Atlanta. Therefore, I have to put Harvick at the top of the list going into Sunday’s event. Behind Harvick, I would list Joey Logano and Chase Elliott as the biggest challengers to the #4 team based on trends and momentum.

For intermediate threats, I believe Alex Bowman and Ryan Blaney should stay on everyone’s radar again this week. Bowman continues to be one of the biggest surprises under this new rules package and has shown great driving at similar low-grip venues. Likewise, Ryan Blaney is having an excellent 2020 season in terms of performance despite 0 wins on the year. The downside is that Blaney has never finished inside the top 10 in 5 career starts at Homestead. To be fair, those numbers may be a touch misleading because Blaney has outperformed most of his career stats in 2020 and I am a big believer that the #12 team will find victory lane sooner than later. The problem with both Blaney and Bowman is that they are receiving betting odds more tailored towards the betting “favorites” than intermediate or dark horses. Therefore, I am not sure if the betting odds truly justify their value based on probability factors. Either way, it would not be surprising if one of those drivers were in contention in the closing laps.

My sharpest betting targets going into Sunday include Tyler Reddick and Austin Dillon. Both of the RCR drivers are solid dark horses at lottery style odds this week. I mentioned Dillon’s success at Homestead-Miami Speedway earlier combined with the performance trends in 2020 which point to his stock increasing this weekend. Teammate Tyler Reddick has been the most impressive rookie out of a star studded rookie class in 2020 with finishes of 16th or betting in 6 of the last 7 races. For this week’s race at Homestead, I believe Reddick will outperform his recent trends. Reddick was absolutely phenomenal at Homestead in the Xfinity Series riding the wall to victory in each of the last 2 years while securing the Xfinity Series Championship. More importantly we have seen good speed from this #8 team throughout the year especially on the 1.5 mile tracks. If the team can unload another fast car, Reddick will impress behind the wheel! For clarity, I am not claiming either Dillon or Reddick as long shots for the outright victory but I do expect both to run very well to benefit H2H/fantasy purposes. I also would not rule out some possible top 5 prop bets for both drivers if we see long shot odds!

Joe Gibbs Racing

I understand that guys like Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch have really good backgrounds at Homestead-Miami Speedway but I am still not confident in Joe Gibbs Racing’s current performance. I made this statement last week and was mostly correct. Martin Truex did get the victory after nearly going a lap down before the 1st competition caution. Respect to Truex and the #19 team for rebounding and getting the job done. Truex has actually become a really good short track driver in the last 2-3 years and proved it once again.

Still for the rest of Joe Gibbs Racing, it was flat out embarrassing in terms of performance. Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have likely been the best two drivers at Martinsville Speedway in recent years. On Wednesday, both drivers fell off the lead lap early in the race and were never remotely competitive. Out of Erik Jones, Busch, and Hamlin, Busch scored the best finish at 19th. It was not like those cars were experiencing major equipment issues, getting into wrecks, or having penalties on pit road; instead they were just not competitive. Therefore, I have a tough time recommending bets towards the JGR cars until I see some improvement mainly in the “speed” department which is really odd because JGR cars have typically shown the most “speed” in recent years. I think the chassis design is preventing those cars from regaining their elite status and I am hesitant to bet on those guys until we see a clear trend change. I also understand that the JGR camp looked much better at Atlanta which is a far better comparison for Homestead and perhaps they will find solid speed again this week. Outside of Kyle Busch, I just remain a touch skeptical of the JGR car’s winning chances this week based on their prior performance in recent weeks.

Drivers to Fade

I have a few different drivers that enter the “fade list” this Sunday across different competition levels including the likes of Kurt Busch, Matt DiBenedetto, and Ryan Preece. Obviously these drivers are all in separate categories in terms of competitiveness but my “fade” consideration derives from the drivers they are typically paired against. If you remember, I had Ryan Preece on my fantasy sleeper list last week because of modified background and solid short track skills. I thought Preece was going to deliver as he worked his way inside the top 15 early in the race but then slid back to a 26th place result.

This week the pendulum swings to the other side as we look to fade Preece at a track that is completely opposite of his driving style. I personally don’t think Preece is the most “talented” driver which can be seen nearly weekly with teammate Ricky Stenhouse outperforming the driver of the #37 car. Besides the talent aspect, Preece is just not good at these low-grip layouts and his average driver rating over the last 5 Homestead races is a disgusting 40.6 rivaled by the likes of J.J. Yeley and Corey LaJoie. Preece will be paired against slightly better competitors this week which should provide fade value.

For Kurt Busch and Matt DiBenedetto, both drivers joined the fade list this week primarily due to their track history at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The elder Busch won in his 3rd career start at Homestead but has failed to be competitive over the last decade or so. Busch is performing a touch stronger this year but I still don’t believe this is the greatest layout for his skill set. Likewise, DiBenedetto falls into the same category. Fresh off a very solid 7th place finish at Martinsville on Wednesday, I am assuming DiBenedetto’s stock rises a bit this week at an opportune time. DiBenedetto has always been a solid short-track driver but now must tackle another low-grip track that really favors the drivers that can stay in the throttle. Matty D seems to be better on the tracks where you have to be patient and let the car come to you in the corners. In 5 career starts at Homestead, DiBenedetto has just one top 25 finish. While he is obviously in better equipment, I don’t expect him to live up to his projections on Sunday

Homestead Fantasy Racing Predictions

I am not going to talk about the top tier fantasy options much because I believe I covered them pretty well above and price tags among the favorites appear to be fairly justified this week. Perhaps Alex Bowman presents some solid upside at a rather economic price tag of just $8,400 among the upper-echelon of the competition. For deeper fantasy options to spread throughout your lineup, both Cole Custer and Christopher Bell will be highly owned this week due to their starting positions on the final two rows of the field. Bell’s price has risen sharply to $9,300 which does not seem beneficial for line-up builders. Meanwhile, Cole Custer has some must-play value at just $6,000.

Again other targets I really like that I mentioned above include Tyler Reddick ($7,300) and Austin Dillon ($6,200) based on raw value. Dillon will be starting from the 16th position which may limit his ceiling. As a result, I like Reddick as a better fantasy option between the two drivers. Erik Jones and Aric Almirola are legitimate low-price options that should move slightly forward from their starting positions. In fact, there are quite a few low-priced solid value options. The biggest challenge this week is picking the correct favorites that will yield the best bonus points potential and make your line-up profitable. Personally, I am riding with Harvick and Chase Elliott as my anchors this week. In multiple line-up situations, I will have Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney mixed pretty heavily as well.

2020 Dixie Vodka 400 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Dixie Vodka 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +800 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1200 (1 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.5 unit) courtesy of MyBookie!
Erik Jones +5000 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +8000 (.25 unit) courtesy of MyBookie!

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -125 wins Baptist Health 200 (win)
Kevin Harvick +550 wins Dixie Vodka 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1070

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick +200 wins Group D (DiBenedetto, A.Dillon, and Bell)(2 units)
Austin Dillon +105 over Matt DiBenedetto (2 units)