2020 Daytona 500 Race Picks and Predictions

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday February 16th, 3:05PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After an exciting week of racing festivities at Daytona International Speedway, the time has finally arrived for Sunday’s main event and the 62nd running of the Great American Race. For NASCAR, this is the most prestigious event in the sport. The stakes are high, the world will be watching, and even the President is scheduled to be in attendance tomorrow. For bettors, racing has not only returned but we have the opportunity to kick off the season with a wide array of betting odds in hopes to convert superspeedway racing into a big payday. The wait is over and the handicapping season has begun following a monstrous 2019 campaign that produced 140 units of profit! Take a look as we kick off the racing season and provide our 2020 Daytona 500 race picks and predictions!

I am excited to get back to the weekly handicapping grind and feel like Sunday’s Daytona 500 will provide sufficient value from betting odds to be conservatively aggressive. I know that sounds like a paradox. However, everyone should know that superspeedway racing is extremely unpredictable and this style of racing should be faced with discipline from the bettor. The key to being successful at betting these superspeedway races is maintaining strong ROI with every wager. Because H2H match-ups are similar to flipping a coin at Daytona, it is also important to conserve risks instead of simply having “extra” action. As long as we are getting strong upside in ROI with each bet, we can take numerous drivers and structure our lineups around risk size (per bet), value, and probability.

In general, bettors should avoid saturated risk. If you want to bet a few of the favorites, that is fine but make sure the rest of your lineup accommodates the risk/value aspect. For superspeedway racing, line-ups with 3-4 favorites at 10-1 odds or less are not going to be profitable from a long term standpoint. You are not going to cash superspeedway betting picks at a 2.5 to 1 ratio. There is too much uncertainty in these races around the parity caused by drafting, big wrecks that can take out anyone at any given second, and simply the necessity of being in the right place at the right moment when the checkered flag waves. Therefore, bettors should have those 20-1, 40-1, and big long shots sprinkled throughout their line-ups because those are the type of odds that you only need to hit a couple of times to have long term success. We will gladly take any winner on a given weekend but the possibility of big (odds) winners is higher at Daytona.

Daytona 500 Predictions

If you happened to check out my early Daytona 500 Betting Odds Preview that I posted two weeks ago, then you may recall that I was high on Ricky Stenhouse Jr at nearly 30-1 odds. Stenhouse actually has the best driver rating, among all active drivers, over the last 5 races at Daytona. Stenhouse won the pole last Sunday and looked really good in the duel races on Thursday. Despite taking a career step backwards after losing his ride at Roush-Fenway Racing and joining JTG Daugherty Racing, Stenhouse remains a solid option this Sunday because the JTG Daugherty Racing superspeedway program is actually pretty good.

Outside of Stenhouse, we could make the argument for literally everyone in the field in some form or another. Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano are undoubtedly the best superspeedway talents in the Cup Series with 13 combined wins from Daytona to Talladega. Hamlin is the defending winner of the Daytona 500 and he has actually won the 500 twice in the last 4 years. Surprisingly, the odds for all the favorites are pretty decent and you could have some pretty good line-up anchors with Hamlin, Keselowski, or Logano. I personally like Logano due to the fact the Fords have been so strong this week and he seems to be a little better than the #2 at the high banks of Daytona.

Speaking of the Fords, I have been impressed with their speed throughout Daytona Speedweeks. They have shown great race speed throughout all teams. Stewart-Haas Racing drivers Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola have run well in every event over the last week. Meanwhile, Team Penske cars have been stout as well which again is why I like the Logano/Keselowski option as anchors to betting lineups. While most fans of the sport would expect some of those top names to be strong at Daytona, some of the perceived inferior Ford drivers have also shown underdog worthy potential. Ryan Newman, Cole Custer, and David Ragan all deserve some long shot credibility. Ultimately, this superspeedway racing is extremely unpredictable. Just look at last week’s Daytona Clash for reference when just 4 cars were left battling for the win on the last restart. Part of the recipe to winning this race is surviving so while speed is not everything; I would stay say the Ford teams have the slight advantage going into Sunday.

If the Fords cannot get the job done, my dark horse focus would turn to the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets. Chase Elliott has become an excellent superspeedway driver despite the fact that he is still winless at Daytona. Despite being on the tail-end of his career, Jimmie Johnson still owns 3 wins at Daytona. Meanwhile, I am becoming a believer in both William Byron and Alex Bowman’s superspeedway potential. Byron has the skills to get the job done in this race and he sticks out as a worthy underdog based on his performances at Daytona and Talladega throughout 2019. The young talent has gained valuable experience and improved with every start. It will not be long before Byron scores his 1st win at the Cup Series level and it could easily happen at one of the superspeedways this season.

2020 NASCAR Betting Sportsbook

I have gotten several questions over the off-season about sportsbooks. Where are the best odds? Can you parlay race winners at all sportsbooks? The answer to that question is always 5Dimes. 5Dimes consistently produces the best odds and they are still the only online sportsbook that allows you to parlay race winners with other bets which has been a huge recipe towards my success in recent years. I have several books that I use to shop around for the best odds for specific drivers but 5Dimes remains the book where I house 80-90% of my wagers. If you are going to be betting NASCAR, get signed up with by using the following link 5Dimes.

2020 Daytona 500 Draftkings Predictions

Again, superspeedway racing is an enigma that rarely can be forecasted. For that reason, fantasy racing line-ups for the Daytona 500 do not necessarily favor handicappers like it will in the weeks moving forward. With that being said, I am still going to take a swing at producing a quality line-up with a strategy that has been most efficient for me at the superspeedways and that strategy surrounds focus on place-differential potential. The likelihood of one or more of your fantasy drivers becoming victims of a wreck at Daytona is really high. If the majority of your drivers are starting at the front of the field, it will be extremely hard to overcome the loss of points due to place-differential if those guys have trouble. I’m not saying don’t take any guys that are starting upfront but at least half of your line-up should encompass drivers starting towards the rear. If those drivers avoid trouble, the likelihood of double digit place-differential is high. If those guys starting in the rear do find trouble, the good news is the loss of points will be minimal as compared to the guys starting upfront. I have found this strategy really capitalizes on the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing and is most efficient towards producing optimal points in cash formats.

2020 Daytona 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1300 (1 unit)
William Byron +2400 (.5 unit)
Ricky Stenhouse +2600 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2750 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +3000 (.5 unit)
Cole Custer +6600 (.25 unit)
David Ragan +11000 (.25 unit)

Daytona 500 Props
Chris Buescher +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
David Ragan +1400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

*If you are not getting the best betting odds that includes the potential to parlay race winners, get signed up with 5Dimes for the best options, rewards, and sign-up bonuses!