2020 Daytona 500 Betting Odds Preview
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
In one week, Daytona International Speedway will roar to life to signify the beginning of Daytona Speedweeks and the start of the 2020 racing season. Action begins next weekend with the running of the annual Busch Clash at Daytona which is a non-points invitation race among the Cup Series’ top drivers. Following the Busch Clash, a full week of events among all of NASCAR’s touring series will unfold in the lead-up to the 62nd running of the Great American Race on February 16th. As anticipation builds towards NASCAR’s biggest race, it is the perfect time to fire up discussions around early Daytona 500 betting odds and a few drivers that may be worth early consideration.
Before we dive into a few early thoughts, keep in mind that superspeedway racing is always unpredictable by nature, especially at this point in the year prior to cars hitting the track for the first time. With that being said, historically Daytona has been far more predictable than Talladega in comparison of superspeedway venues. Among Cup Series veterans, Jimmie Johnson (3), Denny Hamlin (2), and Kevin Harvick (2) are the only drivers with multiple wins at Daytona International Speedway. Hamlin and Brad Keselowski have undoubtedly been the best superspeedway drivers in the last several years. While the majority of Keselowski’s success has come at Talladega, Hamlin has been most impressive at Daytona. Still Keselowski and teammate Joey Logano deserved to be considered in the upper-echelon of superspeedway drivers in this style of racing.
Obviously at this point in time, we are not targeting the “favorites” because the odds from the top drivers have a better opportunity of getting better than worse, especially if those guys have a bad qualifying effort and run into bad luck in the qualifying races. For the purpose of value surrounding early odds, I believe drivers’ odds need to be in the 25-1 range or better to be given early consideration. Taking bets this early is a huge risk and odds are typically designed to be rather conservative. Therefore if you are going to consider betting the Daytona 500 this early, it needs to be for those drivers at long odds that present the most value. Therefore, let’s discuss a few drivers that jump off the page as potential considerations to win the 62nd Daytona 500.
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Cup Series | 2020 Daytona 500 |
Joey Logano | +1100 |
Brad Keselowski | +1100 |
Chase Elliott | +1100 |
Denny Hamlin | +1100 |
Kyle Busch | +1500 |
Kevin Harvick | +1500 |
Ryan Blaney | +1540 |
Kurt Busch | +1980 |
Alex Bowman | +2200 |
William Byron | +2200 |
Clint Bowyer | +2200 |
Aric Almirola | +2200 |
M. DiBenedetto | +2200 |
Martin Truex Jr | +2250 |
Ricky Stenhouse | +2750 |
Jimmie Johnson | +3000 |
Erik Jones | +3300 |
Ryan Newman | +3300 |
Kyle Larson | +3300 |
Cole Custer | +3300 |
Christ. Bell | +3300 |
Austin Dillon | +4400 |
Chris Buescher | +4400 |
Tyler Reddick | +4400 |
Ross Chastain | +6000 |
Ty Dillon | +6600 |
Bubba Wallace | +6600 |
Ryan Preece | +6600 |
M. McDowell | +8800 |
John Hunter | +11000 |
Landon Cassill | +11000 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +2750
At nearly 30-1 odds, Ricky Stenhouse is getting some disrespect due to the fact he will leave Roush-Fenway Racing and move to JTG Daugherty Racing in 2020 behind the #47 car. Obviously the move to JTG Daugherty is a step down in terms of team performance but this is still a superspeedway race which brings parity to the competition with the help of tapered spacers and drafting. Most people may not realize that Ricky Stenhouse actually leads all drivers in the Cup Series, over the last 5 superspeedway races, with a 95.9 average driver rating. Stenhouse also ranks 2nd in laps led (97) behind Ryan Blaney. Regardless of perception, Stenhouse always performs well at Daytona and don’t rule out the JTG Daugherty angle wither. Ryan Preece had a 3rd place finish (Talladega) and another 8th place finish (Daytona) behind the wheel of this #47 car last year. Additionally in 2018, JTG Daugherty posted 3 top 5 finishes at Daytona which proves their equipment is capable of winning in this style of racing. Perhaps the best question is when is the appropriate time to pull the trigger on the #47 car? Sure there is value currently at +2750 but this number could get much better the closer we get to the green flag!
Austin Dillon +4400
Austin Dillon should be another target that everyone keeps an eye on throughout speedweeks at Daytona. Dillon shocked everyone two years ago by winning the Daytona 500 in the biggest underdog win since Trevor Bayne’s 2011 victory. The elder Dillon has been a pretty solid superspeedway driver despite what statistics or averages may indicate. Dillon’s aggressive driving style is great for a long shot betting option because if he can get the track position; he has a legitimate shot to hold off the rest of the field in the closing laps. Of course the downside to that aggressiveness is that he also has a great possibility of being involved in an accident in this close quarters superspeedway style racing. We saw both sides of this exact scenario unfold in last year’s Coke Zero 400 as Dillon raced for the lead in the closing laps (half-way mark because of weather) before ultimately causing a wreck that eliminated half the field. Still at 44-1 odds, Dillon is worth consideration especially if the Chevrolet teams benefit from the new 2020 Camaro which is “believed” to provide a better aero advantage!
Michael McDowell +8800
Statistically, Michael McDowell had the best season of his career in 2019. Unfortunately, with that being said, the 2019 campaign failed to produce McDowell’s first victory at the Cup Series level. Still, McDowell is worthy of betting action at his current odds which are listed just shy of 100-1. In NASCAR betting, it is never ideal to bet on a driver to score his first victory. As the old saying goes, the first victory is the hardest and sometimes most unpredictable. For McDowell, the 88-1 odds provide enough incentive for a small or risky style gamble. Front Row Motorsports made some improvement in 2019 and another step forward could get the team into victory lane. McDowell has always been a solid superspeedway dark horse which was evident last year with a 5th place finish in the Daytona 500 and another 5th place finish in the final superspeedway race at Talladega. For a guy that posted top 5 finishes at both Daytona and Talladega, +8800 does not sound too bad!