2020 Cook Out Southern 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 6th, 6:00PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to Darlington Raceway for the 3rd time this season when the playoffs kick off this Sunday with the running of the Cook Out Southern 500. Earlier this season, Darlington Raceway hosted a pair of bonus races in NASCAR’s initial return following the COVID-19 hiatus. Both races were won by Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin who have dominated the Cup Series with 13 combined wins this season. However, this Sunday’s return to The Lady in Black will have elevated stakes and championship hopes will be on the line. Take a look as we preview this Sunday’s main event and provide our 2020 Cook Out Southern 500 race picks!

Under normal scheduling, the Cup Series only visits Darlington once each year typically on Labor Day weekend. With the unique addition to the May races, we actually have two additional races to help us yield betting expectations this weekend which is helpful in this new paradigm of no pre-race practices. Back in May, Kevin Harvick dominated the opening race in The Real Heroes 400 by leading 159 of 293 laps en route to victory. The only driver that came close to Harvick’s speed in the opening race was the #88 of Alex Bowman who brought home a runner-up finish. In the 2nd race 3 days later, Denny Hamlin captured the checkered flag in the Toyota 500. In that race, it was mostly JGR cars that showed the most dominance bringing home 3 of the top 5 positions. Clint Bowyer also had one of his best performances of the year leading 71 laps despite a 22nd place finish.

When we return to the unique 1.366 mile track in South Carolina this Sunday, Harvick and Hamlin will be overwhelming betting favorites based on their success in the May races and throughout the 2020 season. In fact, both drivers opened at less than 3 to 1 betting odds this week. While hopefully their odds will get better throughout the week, don’t expect to see much improvement from NASCAR’s hottest duo. Luckily Hamlin and Harvick’s success in May has opened the door for better odds among the rest of the competition. Legitimate contenders like Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and others have been generously given favorable odds this week. We will discuss the drivers that have a legitimate chance to knock Hamlin and Harvick off their throne and additionally discuss the best betting options for Sunday’s prestigious Southern 500!

Darlington Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	112.8	12.0	3.6	4.2	6.4	33	187	114	191	1601
Brad Keselowski	106.9	6.0	8.8	7.6	7.2	13	152	74	133	1601
Erik Jones	106.6	13.0	10.0	5.4	8.4	59	201	77	106	1602
Martin Truex Jr	106.3	11.4	11.8	10.0	9.8	7	159	115	122	1601
Denny Hamlin	104.3	9.0	4.4	9.2	7.6	21	170	79	147	1591
Kurt Busch	100.0	12.0	9.4	6.8	9.6	49	182	104	101	1602
Kyle Busch	100.0	14.2	10.4	8.0	10.0	33	136	79	124	1601
Chase Elliott	94.3	13.4	10.6	15.4	9.8	51	237	65	37	1591
Joey Logano	94.1	7.0	15.2	11.6	10.6	-36	183	38	37	1600
Alex Bowman	91.6	10.3	12.3	15.3	12.3	-25	130	105	41	1231
Clint Bowyer	81.7	12.6	12.6	24.2	15.2	12	164	74	72	1195
Tyler Reddick	81.1	21.5	16.0	10.0	16.0	56	45	14	0	501
Jimmie Johnson	79.0	17.8	19.8	22.6	19.0	35	106	33	12	1256
William Byron	78.8	15.8	13.5	25.8	15.3	1	118	19	3	1181
Matt Kenseth	78.0	12.3	19.3	17.8	16.0	-5	105	14	0	1230
Aric Almirola	77.9	14.2	15.4	14.0	15.8	17	116	7	0	1599
Ryan Newman	76.9	14.8	12.8	15.6	14.6	11	159	11	5	1599
Austin Dillon	76.5	14.2	16.4	12.2	15.4	-42	116	9	0	1602
Ryan Blaney	72.9	11.0	23.2	19.2	19.4	-53	67	19	0	1590
Matt DiBenedetto	66.0	17.4	19.0	19.2	20.0	-17	99	5	0	1484
Chris Buescher	65.4	22.8	16.4	19.4	19.8	-38	86	7	0	1595
Christopher Bell	64.6	26.0	13.0	17.5	19.5	1	27	0	0	501
Ty Dillon	62.6	23.4	22.4	18.4	20.8	-41	45	4	8	1597
Ryan Preece	62.3	15.3	25.7	27.0	23.7	-34	25	0	0	727
Cole Custer	59.8	18.0	19.5	26.5	22.5	-33	20	1	0	499
Bubba Wallace	57.5	23.3	25.0	21.8	23.0	-43	19	16	3	1229
Daniel Suarez	56.0	20.4	27.2	26.0	24.8	-46	52	4	1	1349
Michael McDowell	55.8	26.6	22.0	23.4	23.8	-9	17	0	0	1505
John Hunter Nemechek	51.9	23.0	26.0	22.0	28.0	-8	40	8	0	990
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	51.0	24.4	31.0	27.8	28.8	31	14	14	0	1283
Corey LaJoie	45.2	29.2	29.4	29.2	29.2	7	2	4	0	1546
Brennan Poole	42.2	31.0	27.5	32.0	28.0	10	7	0	1	493
J.J. Yeley	37.3	31.5	32.3	29.8	31.8	-9	3	1	1	1200
Quin Houff	33.9	31.0	34.0	31.0	34.0	-2	0	0	0	344
Joey Gase	32.2	35.0	35.5	33.3	34.5	-16	0	4	0	965
Timmy Hill	31.1	35.7	35.3	34.3	35.3	-10	0	4	0	758
Garrett Smithley	28.7	33.3	36.3	35.3	36.0	-10	0	5	0	675
B.J. McLeod	28.2	37.5	36.8	36.5	37.0	3	0	0	0	756

In the last 10-15 years, we have rarely seen drivers dominate Darlington in close proximity. In fact, Greg Biffle was the last driver to win back to back Darlington races in 2005 and 2006. As a result, we have seen several drivers run well at Darlington but I would refrain from calling anyone dominate from a statistical standpoint. I would definitely say Denny Hamlin has experienced the most success with 3 wins over the last dozen Darlington starts. However if you look at loop data stats over the last 5 races at Darlington, you will see 7 different drivers with triple digit average ratings that are separated by just 12 points. We have not seen that many drivers in close proximity at the top of our weekly loop data rankings all season.

Instead of individual standouts, I think the first glaring call-out is the fact that all 4 JGR drivers are ranked inside those top 7 positions. Erik Jones is not normally a driver to target from the JGR stable but he has been phenomenal at Darlington with a 5.4 average finishing position through 5 career starts including a win in this race one year ago. If you consider how well the JGR cars performed in the 2nd race back in May, you have to like their chances this Sunday which vaults Jones into a legitimate dark horse candidate. Other call-outs in terms of loop data include the pitiful performance stats by Ryan Blaney who has only managed to post a 72.9 average rating through 5 races. Blaney has never performed well at Darlington and will be among our fade candidates once again on Sunday.

Betting Strategy

My viewpoint for this week’s races is that the favorites of Hamlin/Harvick have really saturated the odds for the top 3-4 drivers. I feel like we made some good selections at openers this week and will continue to look for probabilistic value. However, I really believe that H2H match-ups provide the most sharp betting potential this week. The reason Darlington has so many nicknames is because it is an extremely tough track with heavy tire wear. It is the epitome of a driver’s racetrack and that is why we see some drivers perform really well while others struggle significantly. For those reasons, we should exploit those trends in match-ups. If we can just avoid bad luck, this is a track and a betting event where historical trends can be relied upon heavily.

Drivers to Target

In terms of win (futures) bets, you can’t go wrong with either Harvick or Hamlin if you can find odds to yield some sort of ROI. I would personally favor Hamlin over Harvick every time simply based on his history at Darlington which includes 3 wins in just 16 career starts. Obviously betting odds do not make it very feasible to bet any of the favorites this week unless you are utilizing parlays. However, I do believe we have some legitimate challengers in the form of Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, and potentially Brad Keselowski. I would also throw Martin Truex into that mix but he is another driver like Hamlin/Harvick where the odds just simply are not worth the risk.

I firmly believe the JGR cars will be strong this week. I spoke to Erik Jones’ incredible stats previously and his odds were extremely generous at 33 to 1 at openers. Kyle Busch may be my favorite sharp pick to win this week. It seems like the majority of bettors and fans are starting to overlook the #18 each week. While Busch has had a terrible season for what we expect from the two-time champion, speed has rarely been the issue. Back in the 2nd May race, Busch finished runner-up to Hamlin and I believe he will be strong again when the green flag waves. For the #18 team, they just have to find a way to avoid the bad luck that has plagued the group in recent weeks. Lastly, I also think Brad Keselowski is a part of that “sharp” group of favorites. Keselowski has quietly become one of the better drivers at Darlington in recent years and has been excellent under the 550hp package. Therefore, the #2 should be given legitimate respect in all formats.

Lastly, I mentioned earlier that H2H bets should be heavily targeted this week. Obviously Erik Jones is a driver that should be targeted in H2H match-ups as I have pointed out earlier. Additionally, please don’t overlook the talents of Alex Bowman and Tyler Reddick. Both drivers have been very impressive at Darlington in their young careers. Bowman has posted a 91.6 average rating over the last 5 races which includes a runner-up finish to Harvick in the 1st race back in May. For Reddick, he is just super talented which always seems to shine at places like Darlington. Reddick posted finishes of 7th and 13th back in May which are usually good enough to take down any match-ups against the drivers he is paired against. With that being said, I believe Reddick’s ceiling is even higher this week. Lastly, I would also throw Brad Keselowski’s name into the H2H mix especially if he is evenly paired against his teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney who both struggle at Darlington.

Drivers to Fade

I mentioned earlier that Ryan Blaney’s loop data stats were downright pitiful. Despite being known as a really good driver on the 1.5 mile layouts, Blaney has really struggled with the fickle 1.366 mile layout at Darlington with a career best finish of 13th in 7 career starts. Similar disappointing trends can be tied to the likes of Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola. Almirola actually posted his best Darlington finish (7th) of his career back in May. However, Almirola has also averaged a 17.6 average finishing position through 10 career starts. Bowyer has been even worse with a pathetic 21.31 average finishing position through 16 career starts. Similar to Almirola, Bowyer had his best performance of his career back in the 2nd May race by leading 71 laps so perhaps there is some risk into fading him this week. However if you look at the numbers, Bowyer has finished outside the top 15 in 6 of the last 7 starts at The Lady in Black.

Fantasy Fliers and Value Plays

I have mentioned most of the favorites that I favor this week so I am not going to spend much time talking about the top half of the field again. I will say that Denny Hamlin is my line-up anchor this week because I believe he will likely jump out front from the 2nd starting position with the possibility to compile significant dominator points. Deeper in the field, I love the fantasy value for Tyler Reddick ($7,000) from the 24th starting spot. Ty Dillon ($6,000) has never finished worse than 21st at Darlington in 5 career starts. Based on starting positions this week, we also have higher ceilings on guys like Erik Jones ($9,600), Ryan Newman ($7,200), and Ryan Preece ($5,900). If you play multiple line-ups, I would also find ways to work Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski into rosters this week as well. Both drivers present excellent pivot options compared to the known favorites!

Draftkings 2020 Southern 500 Optimal Lineup

2020 Southern 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +1000 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +1100 (1 unit) *early play
Ryan Blaney +2600 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +3300 (.5 unit) *early play
Erik Jones +3300 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Ross Chastain +140 over Justin Allgaier (win)
Denny Hamlin +315 wins Southern 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +895

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kurt Busch -115 over Jimmie Johnson (3 units)
Erik Jones +100 over Aric Almirola (3 units)
Tyler Reddick +100 over Clint Bowyer (3 units)
Kevin Harvick -160 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Tyler Reddick +700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +1500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)