NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Sunday June 14th, 12:00PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Earlier today, Harrison Burton took advantage of a late race restart to win the Hooters 250 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Burton led just two laps in the entire race but was able to capture the checkered flag in an exciting green-white-checkered finish. On Sunday, the Xfinity Series returns for round 2 at Homestead with the running of the Contender Boats 250 at 12:00PM (EST) before the Cup Series steps into the spotlight mid-afternoon. As we prepare for our 2nd straight double header, we look back on what we learned today and provide our 2020 Contender Boats 250 race picks for round 2 at Homestead!
It was another frustrating betting afternoon earlier today at the end of the Hooters 250. Again we were in dominating position to pull out a victory but a late race caution provided opportunity for guys like Harrison Burton who really was not much of a factor for most of the afternoon. Looking back at today’s race, I think we were targeting the right guys. Noah Gragson was extremely strong on the long run. Chase Briscoe ran into issues early falling as many as 6 laps down. Briscoe probably had the fastest car in the field rallying back from several laps down to bring home an incredible 7th place finish. Additionally guys like Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric who were both on our betting rosters on Saturday, were at the front of the field throughout Saturday’s race. Chastain was hit with a late race speeding penalty and Cindric finished in the runner-up position after failing to get the job done yet again.
Fortunately the Cup Series has raced at several race tracks in recent weeks with similarities to Homestead-Miami Speedway in terms of tire wear and low-grip conditions. Homestead-Miami Speedway is a multi-groove racetrack unlike Darlington or Atlanta in terms of banking. However, the surface structure is relatively similar with the high tire wear and fall off in lap times. The challenging aspect for teams will be dialing-in the balance in the setup without any practice time. Still we have seen some of these circumstances play out in recent weeks and perhaps we have some baseline expectations that we can take into Homestead combined with some historical trends to find a winning betting combination!
As a result, I feel like the circumstances will be very similar tomorrow and despite bad luck, the picks have been solid over the last several races. For those unaware, Xfinity Series teams will be using the exact same cars on Sunday that were utilized earlier today in the Hooters 250. The only differences derive from the entry list which will differ slightly on Sunday. Daniel Hemric will replace Dale Earnhardt Jr in the #8 car for J.R. Motorsports and A.J. Allmendinger will jump into the #16 car for Kaulig Racing. Therefore, expectations should not vary too significantly from what we witnessed earlier today.
Drivers To Target
I am going to keep this preview relatively brief and not spend too much time on every driver. With that being said, I thought Noah Gragson and Chase Briscoe were obviously the two best cars in the field on Saturday. Gragson was really strong in terms of long-run speed and Briscoe never really got to show just how good the #98 car was on Saturday. Austin Cindric and Ross Chastain were the best secondary contenders with a possible notable mention towards Brandon Jones who was pretty strong throughout the afternoon.
For Sunday’s betting plays, I will be centering bets around Noah Gragson and Chase Briscoe. In terms of H2H bets, I believe guys like Anthony Alfredo and Justin Haley deserve some attention. Alfredo has been running well in every start in the #21 car this season with 3 top 10 finishes in 4 starts. Alfredo earned his best career finish on Saturday with a 4th place showing as he continues to impress despite limited starts. Meanwhile, Justin Haley was a solid top 5 car for the majority of the running of the Hooters 250. Haley faded slightly in the closing laps and was nailed with a pit road penalty on the final pit stop which curtailed his finish. However if the #11 team can make a couple of adjustments, Haley is very close to contending with the leaders and remains a solid dark horse consideration.
Drivers to Fade
In the Hooters 250, Justin Allgaier topped my list for drivers to fade and I would say the #7 team will be worthy of fade consideration again on Sunday. Allgaier has failed to finish inside the top 5 throughout his career at Homestead and has just two top 10 finishes in 11 career starts. It was fairly obvious that the #7 team completely missed the setup on Saturday and even if they make the car better by tomorrow; I am not sure it is enough to exceed expectations. Allgaier has been paired against drivers like Austin Cindric and Ross Chastain this week who have clearly been better at Homestead. Therefore, Allgaier remains a strong fade going into Sunday’s event.
Another driver I also had on my fade last going into Saturday was the driver of the #18 in Riley Herbst. I mentioned previously that Herbst has fallen off to a degree in terms of performance in recent weeks and he was not exactly impressive in Saturday’s Hooters 250. In fact, Herbst averaged a 14th place running position throughout the race despite capturing a 10th place finish. Considering that Herbst is typically paired against intermediate ranged drivers, I believe he is worth fade consideration for the 2nd straight day as Homestead-Miami Speedway simply does not play into his driving style.
2020 Contenders Boat 250 Draftkings Optimal Lineup
2020 Contenders Boat 250 Race Picks
*Final*
Chase Briscoe +190 (3 units)
courtesy of MyBookie!
Ross Chastain +1250 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +1450 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-ups
Brandon Jones -105 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Noah Gragson -145 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
