2020 Consumers Energy 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 9th, 2020 4:47PM EST at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Earlier today, Kevin Harvick scored his 5th win of the season by winning the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. In my earlier preview, I expected that Harvick would be the man to beat this weekend as a result of performance trends at the aerodynamic horsepower tracks over the last several races. Harvick proved to be the class of the field earlier today but the win did not come easy. Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and others were all in positions to steal the victory in the closing laps thanks to numerous restarts. Despite Harvick’s dominance in terms of pure speed, track position proved to be the great equalizer and that is why several drivers will be in the running again on Sunday when round 2 at Michigan reconvenes. After cashing a 10 to 1 parlay with Harvick earlier today, we discuss the best betting options on Sunday with our 2020 Consumers Energy 400 race picks!

Since I have already broken down the performance trends and historical trends for racing at Michigan in the FireKeepers Casino 400 preview, I will keep Sunday’s expectations pretty straight forward from what we learned on Saturday and how that correlates to betting opportunities for tomorrow’s race. For starters, Harvick obviously remains the #1 driver in the field going into Sunday. We knew that would be the case going into the weekend and Harvick confirmed his dominance at the horsepower tracks with a brilliant performance. Therefore, Harvick can be considered an anchor in all formats including win bets, H2H match-ups, and in fantasy line-ups.

The biggest question I have going into Sunday is “did we learn who is the biggest threat behind Harvick?” At times, Denny Hamlin had winning speed early in the race. At times, all of the JGR cars looked poised to capture a win. Then you also notice that Brad Keselowski emerged as the fastest car towards the end of the race. However, there were not any drivers that were really strong from the opening lap to the checkered flag, outside of Harvick. In fact, I think guys like Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott were not that strong yet both drivers had a chance at the win with the restarts and getting clean air on the nose of their cars. I believe we will see similar comers and goers on Sunday as the battle for track position and strategy calls continue to shake up the running order.

Betting Strategy

Before this year, NASCAR did not have regular double headers at the same track on the same weekend. In terms of betting, we have learned that betting odds have been extremely saturated for the 2nd race of these double headers. We saw similar situations unfold at Darlington, Charlotte, and Pocono this season. I expect Harvick’s odds will be in the 2-3 to 1 range on Sunday which nearly makes it impossible to bet on the #4 car. Meanwhile, I also expect guys like Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex will be extremely overvalued after finishing in the top 3 positions and closing the race with some solid speed. Nothing against Keselowski or Truex who are among the best drivers in the Cup Series. However, neither driver has scored a victory at Michigan in 51 combined starts. Therefore, you have to ask yourself if their odds are justified?

Due to the fact I feel so many drivers are overvalued, I must approach this race with a conservative strategy. I did the same thing in today’s Xfinity Series race. I still had an opportunity to win with some of the selections that were chosen. However, I downgraded my risk for futures bets and also only pulled the trigger on the sharpest of H2H plays. The overall goal is to minimize the damage potential by lowering our risk but yield somewhat the same probability of cashing by eradicating the higher risk plays. Due to betting odds, this will most likely be the most sensible strategy for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400.

Drivers to Target

Outside of Harvick, I do believe Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney were the best cars on Saturday in terms of overall speed in that exact order. Hamlin and Blaney showed the majority of their speed early. Both cars struggled in traffic and had trouble driving back through the field. That is not a knock on either Hamlin or Blaney but rather just a product of racing at Michigan. Harvick and Keselowski were the only cars that really showed the ability to drive up through the field when they fell behind and even then it took both cars several laps to get going.

Perhaps the surprising aspect of Saturday’s race was the speed from the Joe Gibbs Racing cars. At one point in the final stage of the race, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Erik Jones, and affiliate teammate Christopher Bell were in all the top 5. I personally believe Bell and Jones were the biggest surprises on Saturday which is ironic considering both guys have been in the headlines all week as Bell is slated to take over the #20 car next season. Still, the JGR cars were really solid in terms of speed and I believe bettors should take notice ahead of Sunday’s race. I personally believe Christopher Bell may be one of the best H2H plays on Sunday based on the drivers he is paired against. However, all of the JGR cars should be elevated in terms of value.

H2H Targets and Fades

There were a few big surprises on Saturday that were both good and bad which we should note for H2H purposes for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400. Let’s start with the surprises involving cars that under-performed. I was personally high on Aric Almirola’s chances on Saturday. Instead, Almirola and the #10 team significantly struggled throughout the afternoon finishing in the 16th position. I had similar thoughts about Tyler Reddick who also under-performed. I am giving Reddick some leeway due to the fact he suffered a flat tire and spent the majority of the race trying to get his lap back. Still, I thought Reddick would be much better in terms of speed.

Lastly, I have to mention Alex Bowman as another driver that severely under-performed. Bowman won at Auto Club Speedway in March which is the only other 2.0 mile oval on the schedule. While the #88 team’s performance has declined in recent weeks, I was still rather shocked to see the #88 outside the top 15 throughout the majority of the afternoon. Bowman has now finished 15th or worse in 5 of the last 6 races and will be high on my “fade” radar going into Sunday.

On the flip side, there were a few pleasant surprises. I mentioned the speed from the JGR cars and most surprisingly the strong runs from both Erik Jones and Christopher Bell. Bubba Wallace had an excellent afternoon finishing in the 9th position. Wallace executed the restarts to near perfection which helped optimize the finishing position however the driver also overachieved from behind the wheel. I would also mention both Chase Elliott and Kurt Busch as drivers that performed well. I know the finishing positions of Elliott and Busch are not impressive to the naked eye. However, Chevrolet teams have struggled heavily at Michigan in recent years to provide top-end speed. I thought Elliott and Busch were the best of the Chevrolet cars and a few adjustments may be able to vault them into the mix on Sunday.

Fantasy Targets

My fantasy plays had strong results on Saturday cashing in both the Xfinity and Cup Series. I actually tied for the victory in the main Xfinity Series GPP which I posted on twitter though that line-up was slightly different than what was posted. Either way, the fantasy winnings are always a nice bonus. For Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400, I am locking in Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski as my anchors. If I had to choose one optimal line-up, there is no way I am leaving either of those two drivers off my roster.

Since Sunday’s starting line-up is inverted for the top 20 positions, Harvick and Keselowski have solid place differential potential as well. To maximize our ceiling, I am going to take a few guys that had trouble on Saturday that should bounce back in a strong way. Austin Dillon was a top 10 car for the majority of stage 3 before getting into late trouble. Cole Custer and John Hunter Nemechek were involved in accidents and will go to back-up cars. I really like Custer’s fantasy value due to the fact the Fords have been so strong this week. However, John Hunter and Ricky Stenhouse are solid options for rebound performances.

Draftkings Consumers Energy 400 Optimal Lineup

2020 Consumers Energy 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +880 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +1320 (.75 unit)
Joey Logano +1500 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliott +1760 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick +268 wins Consumers Energy 400
Matt Kenseth +150 over Clint Bowyer
Risking 1 unit to win: +820

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Erik Jones -115 over Matt DiBenedetto (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson +125 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Christopher Bell +775 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +1500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)