2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 29th, 7:30PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will conclude the regular season at the same place it began this Saturday at Daytona International Speedway for the running of the Coke Zero Sugar 400. This Saturday’s return to Daytona was part of NASCAR’s planned 2020 schedule changes. Traditionally the summer race at Daytona has been held on Independence Day weekend which is a tradition that goes back to 1959. This Saturday’s race at Daytona will mark the first time in NASCAR history this race is held outside of the July 4th weekend. To add to the intrigue, the stakes will be elevated for the drivers fighting to keep their championship hopes alive. With chaos on the horizon, it’s time to shift focus towards finding the best betting options as we present our 2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400 race picks!

Unlike the Daytona 500, the summer race at Daytona has traditionally yielded the most unpredictability. The track is hotter and slicker which yields the high probability of huge multi-car wrecks that accompany superspeedway racing. For whatever reason, this race has always yielded more wild moments and unpredictable finishes when compared to the Daytona 500 that is run in February. Just look at the last two summer races at Daytona, both Erik Jones (2018) and Justin Haley (2019) scored the 1st wins of their Cup Series careers. Over the last 10 summers races at the beach, Daytona has yielded 10 different winners and I have a feeling that we will see that streak continue this Saturday!

Daytona Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	92.7	8.0	13.6	20.6	11.0	-10	840	13	104	902
Alex Bowman	90.7	3.2	7.6	16.6	10.8	25	743	18	17	909
Ryan Blaney	90.1	13.2	12.4	23.2	14.0	22	759	9	136	777
Joey Logano	90.1	4.8	17.8	19.6	13.6	-14	795	15	60	792
Jimmie Johnson	86.3	15.2	20.6	21.6	16.8	148	772	26	13	739
Denny Hamlin	84.7	11.2	17.0	13.8	16.6	55	588	20	136	801
Kevin Harvick	83.3	5.6	19.0	22.0	15.4	-41	663	12	20	794
Austin Dillon	81.5	15.6	12.8	14.2	16.2	17	424	25	47	907
Chase Elliott	81.4	11.0	15.4	27.2	15.8	74	759	15	41	682
Ryan Newman	79.7	12.8	15.8	8.8	15.4	-86	457	35	16	918
William Byron	79.3	13.6	22.0	23.6	19.0	61	408	15	56	650
Michael McDowell	78.3	23.6	18.2	13.4	17.6	53	387	30	23	905
Kyle Busch	77.3	17.6	17.0	21.6	17.6	-3	587	15	55	782
Matt DiBenedetto	76.1	23.4	15.6	17.8	17.4	8	503	28	49	890
Erik Jones	75.6	19.2	22.6	16.2	20.2	-13	429	31	12	767
Ty Dillon	74.3	22.2	18.8	17.0	19.6	21	465	29	3	759
Aric Almirola	73.7	17.4	17.2	19.8	17.4	-24	578	20	7	883
Martin Truex Jr	73.4	13.6	9.4	21.8	16.6	-45	541	27	24	875
Bubba Wallace	73.4	16.4	19.8	16.8	21.2	-11	455	29	0	879
Chris Buescher	73.2	20.4	20.4	13.4	19.2	17	477	12	1	901
Brad Keselowski	72.4	16.2	19.4	31.0	18.8	7	570	8	39	630
Clint Bowyer	71.8	14.0	13.6	19.4	17.8	-49	623	17	5	894
Kurt Busch	70.4	14.4	21.2	26.2	20.2	37	639	29	24	758
Tyler Reddick	67.7	30.5	21.5	27.5	20.5	102	149	10	0	390
Ryan Preece	62.0	26.0	21.7	23.0	21.7	4	152	12	1	524
Daniel Suarez	59.0	21.8	21.8	36.3	24.0	-10	445	6	0	386
Brendan Gaughan	53.0	29.8	26.6	17.8	25.8	6	162	13	0	898
J.J. Yeley	48.0	38.5	23.5	15.0	28.5	-51	2	3	0	293
Joey Gase	42.2	37.7	30.0	25.0	30.3	-83	52	0	0	489
Corey LaJoie	41.7	33.6	33.8	20.6	31.4	9	29	2	1	609
B.J. McLeod	33.0	37.0	37.7	28.3	34.7	-11	4	2	0	429
Quin Houff	29.0	33.5	39.5	38.0	36.0	-38	12	0	0	197

For superspeedway races, loop data metrics only signify the drivers that have run towards the front of the pack for the majority of laps completed. In reality, drivers only need to be in position for a victory on the final lap of the race which is the beauty of this style of racing. With that being said, we can look at loop data metrics to find the drivers that have a higher likelihood of being in position to go after a win in the closing laps.

Surprisingly, Ricky Stenhouse (92.7) and Alex Bowman (90.7) lead our loop data stats this week marking the first time this year either driver has been in the top 3. Stenhouse has shown his superspeedway talent on multiple occasions with victories at both Daytona and Talladega. Stenhouse’s last victory came in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 back in 2017 and he has consistently been one of the frontrunners largely thanks to his aggressive driving style. Meanwhile, Bowman is an underrated superspeedway talent that is often overlooked because he has not recorded the finishes to match the performance at Daytona and Talladega.

As we look further down our loop data metrics, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are the next pair of drivers that have prestigious superspeedway resumes. Blaney won the GEICO 500 at Talladega in June which was his 2nd straight win at the track and that victory remains his only win of the season. Looking down through the remainder of the ratings, most drivers are within their expected rangers. Austin Dillon (81.5) and Michael McDowell (78.3) likely deserve notable mentions for drivers that are trending well above their week to week averages.

Betting Strategy

Typically my strategy for Daytona involves low risk/high reward style plays to offset the risk of superspeedway racing. I rarely make any H2H bets, in the form of match-ups, because of the high volatile risk factor which will be the case again on Saturday. However, I will say that I am attacking this Saturday’s race slightly more aggressive than normal. Typically I limit my overall risk to about 4 units for superspeedway racing with multiple small unit plays to cover enough drivers to increase our probability of profit. The strategy this week remains similar but I may put more overall risk on the table. The Cup Series has been extremely tough on bettors this year and this may be one of our best opportunities to capture a big (odds) win. For that reason, I am going to put some extra bets towards win odds and have more drivers than normal.

Drivers to Target

To some extent, there are not any “wrong” betting targets this week. We could make the argument for anyone’s chances to win. If drivers are overvalued, it should be taken into consideration because every bet made this week will affect your overall ROI potential which should be kept in focus. The best superspeedway driver at Daytona in recent years is undoubtedly Denny Hamlin who is also the reigning Daytona 500 winner. Hamlin is a 3-time winner at Daytona which is tied with Jimmie Johnson for the most among active drivers.

A few of the drivers that I have on my radar this week include Joey Logano and Aric Almirola among the top betting favorites. Logano’s superspeedway success has mainly come at Talladega and he has experienced terrible luck in the summer race at Daytona. However, Logano remains one of the best superspeedway talents in the field. The driver of the #22 has a pair of 4th place finishes in his last 5 starts and has won the duel races in each of the last two years at Daytona. Meanwhile, Aric Almirola has notable betting value for one of the top 6-8 drivers this week. Almirola is having one of the most competitive seasons of his career and now gets a chance to showcase his talent at superspeedway racing where both of his two career wins have fallen. After a solid 3rd place finish at Talladega in June, Almirola has plenty of value at 16 to 1 odds.

Currently there is a log jam of drivers in the +1600 to +1900 range of betting odds. I believe those odds will spread out a bit as we move closer to start time and the odds for several of the intermediate favorites should get better. Drivers like Ricky Stenhouse, Jimmie Johnson, and Erik Jones are all intriguing options for this Saturday’s race but I would love to see better odds before I pull the trigger. Also in that 16 to 1 range is the still winless threat of Kyle Busch. Busch is a former Daytona winner and has recorded 8 top 5 finishes in 30 career starts which is not too shabby. At 16 to 1 odds, Rowdy definitely deserves consideration as he seeks to end the winless streak.

I don’t have time to explain my thoughts on every driver’s chances this week. Instead, I will just list a couple of rapid fire thoughts and comments that I will be keeping in mind the closer we move to start time. With that being said, Clint Bowyer is on my radar though I think he should have more advantageous odds than 25 to 1. I believe William Byron is one of the most underrated superspeedway talents that nobody talks about at 27 to 1 odds. Meanwhile Austin Dillon, Michael McDowell, John Hunter Nemechek, and Ty Dillon are all live dark horses. I actually love Ty Dillon at nearly 100 to 1 odds who has finished 6th or better in 3 of his last 4 starts at Daytona!

Draftkings 2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Optimal Lineup

*I am not a fan of fantasy lineups at Daytona because they are so unpredictable and handicapping has minimal impact this week. For optimal line-ups, place-differential potential should be given extra focus this week due to the volatile threat of multi-car accidents.

2020 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +1200 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +1600 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1800 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit)
William Byron +3000 (.5 unit)
Austin Dillon +3600 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +5000 (.25 unit)
Ty Dillon +6600 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Daniel Hemric +130 over Justin Allgaier (win)
Joey Logano/Kevin Harvick +450 wins Coke Zero Sugar 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1165

Prop Bets

Denny Hamlin -135 does not finish Top 5 (2 units)
Chris Buescher +700 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Ty Dillon +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Corey LaJoie +2200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)