2020 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday May 24th, 6:18PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Last week, NASCAR made a successful return to racing by pulling off two Cup Series events at Darlington Raceway in a 3 day window. Starting Sunday, the Cup Series will partake in another similar event schedule but this time it will be in the heart of NASCAR country by way of Charlotte Motor Speedway. The Cup Series will feature another Sunday/Wednesday back to back race schedule with both Xfinity and Truck Series teams participating on Monday and Tuesday to give us 4 straight days of racing. Of course, all of the action kicks off on Sunday in what has become known as the greatest day in motorsports with race fans having the luxury of witnessing both the Indy 500 and Coca Cola 600 on the same day. This year, just the 600 remains due to COVID-19 complications. Still, as we prepare for one of the biggest days in motorsports, we take this time to break down the 2020 Coca Cola 600 and provide our best bets for Sunday!

At Darlington this past week, it was rather odd to witness multiple races without any form of practices prior to the event. We have seen this rare scenario in the past when rain cancels all pre-race practices. However, this time it was by design as NASCAR’s limits the amount of on-track activity and personnel for COVID-19 precautions. This week NASCAR announced plans to extend this new format to races at Charlotte, Bristol, Atlanta, and Homestead over the next several races meaning there will not be any practices before any races in the near future. Obviously, this hurts bettors to a certain degree. While we should never hang our hat on practice speeds and observational practice data varies in significance from track to track, it still hurts to not see any type of speed indicators from on-track activity prior to these races to point our betting targets in the right direction.

At least for this week’s Coca Cola 600, teams will participate in qualifying which will happen just a few hours before the green flag. Still without practice, we are presented another daunting circumstantial uncertainty. We saw last week at Darlington the impacts of not having practices. Guys that would normally be favorites at Darlington like Martin Truex Jr, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch struggled severely in the opening laps of Sunday’s race. Logano never overcame the handling issues in the 1st race and it took Truex and Rowdy nearly half the race to find the correct balance on their cars to produce competitive speed. Then on Wednesday, we saw what appeared to be a completely different race. Several guys that were good on Sunday, struggled under the lights as Wednesday’s Toyota 500k played out in a more historical (driver averages) type of narrative. Remember, Darlington is the epitome of a “driver’s track” which typically means you see similar names at the front of the field. For Charlotte, the case is not nearly as concrete from a historical perspective and these teams must nail the setup to have a chance at victory.

Charlotte Betting Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Martin Truex Jr	122.5	12.2	6.8	4.0	5.8	87	246	440	1871
Kyle Busch	120.3	2.8	11.2	8.2	8.0	59	309	542	1865
Jimmie Johnson	106.1	17.6	6.2	7.6	7.6	56	111	190	1871
Denny Hamlin	103.0	7.8	9.2	11.8	8.0	46	112	137	1845
Kyle Larson	95.8	22.0	9.8	17.6	11.6	138	85	12	1678
Kevin Harvick	95.8	9.8	19.6	19.8	14.4	7	142	220	1375
Chase Elliott	94.3	9.4	11.0	17.6	13.2	29	106	158	1413
Matt Kenseth	91.4	10.0	9.5	8.5	11.3	4	48	5	1470
Kurt Busch	87.5	14.0	8.8	14.2	10.4	44	11	1	1867
Ryan Blaney	85.6	13.4	14.6	22.4	14.4	5	23	2	1718
Brad Keselowski	80.1	12.4	14.6	16.8	16.0	50	48	78	1488
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	79.2	14.4	16.2	12.6	15.2	-39	10	2	1869
Daniel Suarez	78.9	12.5	22.0	12.5	16.0	-18	25	0	1535
Alex Bowman	78.4	14.0	18.7	18.3	17.7	-10	15	8	861
Aric Almirola	77.6	17.0	14.3	15.8	16.5	-6	25	0	1470
Austin Dillon	73.7	14.0	17.8	23.4	19.0	-44	22	2	1658
Clint Bowyer	71.7	16.2	14.8	18.8	17.0	25	3	2	1865
Ryan Newman	71.3	14.6	17.6	20.8	18.2	-70	4	1	1521
Joey Logano	71.1	14.0	22.0	21.4	18.6	9	22	15	1787
William Byron	70.5	11.0	22.0	24.0	20.5	-26	6	31	539
Erik Jones	68.6	15.8	21.5	20.8	21.8	102	32	0	1158
Chris Buescher	64.9	23.2	19.8	17.8	20.2	7	4	0	1864
Bubba Wallace	62.3	26.5	25.0	20.5	23.0	17	2	0	795
Michael McDowell	58.0	22.2	28.2	21.6	24.8	-46	17	0	1823
Ty Dillon	54.2	25.5	22.3	25.3	24.5	-52	11	0	1375
Corey LaJoie	46.8	35.5	27.3	24.5	27.8	-22	4	0	1444
Matt DiBenedetto	39.7	28.2	32.4	32.2	31.6	-34	3	0	1109
Reed Sorenson	36.4	36.3	33.0	29.8	32.3	13	1	0	1415
B.J McLeod	35.0	35.7	32.3	31.3	33.3	-2	2	0	1094
Timmy Hill	30.5	36.0	35.0	31.3	34.7	1	0	0	1093

As you can see from the loop data, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch have displayed amazing stats over the last 5 races at Charlotte’s oval course. Truex has actually won 3 of the last 6 races at Charlotte including two Coca Cola 600s. In actuality, this race is tailor made for Truex because he is one of the best long run drivers in the sport. Charlotte Motor Speedway has a habit of producing long green flag runs and 600 miles requires long run endurance. For Kyle Busch, he finally got a Charlotte checkered flag in the 2018 Coca Cola 600 after a long winless drought in points paying races at Charlotte. Despite just having one win at Charlotte, Rowdy leads all drivers with the most laps led (542) and fastest laps (309) posted in the last 5 races at Charlotte. Strictly from a performance standpoint, the #18 has shown more consistent speed this year when compared to the #19 car and perhaps that is something to keep in mind for both upcoming races.

One of the biggest surprises that stems from our loop data is that Jimmie Johnson has the 3rd best average rating at 106.1. Johnson’s elite status has cooled over the last few years in the midst of a near 3 year winless drought. With that being said, there was a time when the #48 team could not be beat at Charlotte winning 5 out of 6 races from 2003-2005. Obviously these are different times but Johnson deserves long shot consideration. The 7-time champion won at Charlotte as recently as 2016 and showed race-winning speed in the opening race at Darlington. If the #48 team can give Johnson another extremely fast ride, it would not be overly shocking to see this winless drought end at Charlotte where he owns 8 career victories.

A few other notable callouts from the loop data presented above include poor performance trends for guys like Joey Logano and Erik Jones. Logano has been a complete hit or miss driver at Charlotte with a win in 2015 and a runner-up finish in last year’s 600. Logano has also finished outside the top 10 in 7 of his last 10 starts at Charlotte. Erik Jones is perhaps a sharp fade candidate. Jones posted solid finishes at Darlington in both races which will elevate his perception value this week. In reality, Jones is just good at Darlington and does an excellent job of “racing the track.” Personally, I was never impressed with the raw speed from the #20 team last week and I think that will be more noticeable this week at a more aero-dependent style race setup. Therefore, I think we can expect Jones’ stock to regress this week.

Drivers to Target

When you attempt to narrow the list for potential winners, Martin Truex and Kyle Busch deserve to be the top two favorites. This race is designed for Truex’s style. My only worry is the #19 team has not shown the best speed through the opening several races. For that reason, I would move Rowdy into my #1 overall position. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are legitimate betting considerations based on performance trends and prior track history. Harvick is a 3-time winner at Charlotte meanwhile Hamlin has finished inside the top 5 in 5 of the last 7 races at Charlotte. Both drivers are coming off wins at Darlington and have been the most consistent frontrunners in 2020.

However, I do expect the Chevrolets to continue their progression this week. In Sunday’s Darlington race, several Chevrolets displayed prominent speed including the likes of Alex Bowman, Jimmie Johnson, William Byron, Kurt Busch, and Chase Elliott. Even Tyler Reddick and Matt Kenseth posted top 10 finishes in Chevrolet powered equipment. I firmly believe that Hendrick Motorsports is gaining momentum each week and will continue to lead the Chevrolet camp in the weeks ahead. I mentioned above that Jimmie Johnson deserves some Charlotte respect as a potential long shot. If the Chevrolets can back up their speed again this week, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman become potential 2nd level favorites.

Elliott was in position to win Wednesday’s race before a late caution and Bowman had the fastest car in the opening Darlington race until Harvick overtook him at midpoint. Bowman has been really good on the high tire wear/low grip surfaces this year so perhaps his potential is slightly downgraded for a place like Charlotte which produces more grip. However, Elliott is a really strong candidate for having the right speed and driving style to win a Coca Cola 600. Elliott is one of those drivers that typically improves deeper into races and that is a winning formula for Charlotte. I truly expect the #9 car to be one of the cars to beat before the checkered flag waves. For the record, Hendrick Motorsports owns 19 wins at Charlotte including 11 Coca Cola 600 victories which leads all organizations.

Fantasy Targets

From a fantasy perspective, everything is somewhat speculative until starting positions are determined. With that being said, I do believe Martin Truex Jr ($10,600) and Chase Elliott ($9,700) are solid anchor options. Elliott has serious fantasy value this week as a potential favorite with a relatively cheap price tag. With Truex, you are getting the best Charlotte driver in recent years for the cheapest price of the other favorites. In the intermediate range, Jimmie Johnson ($9,200) and Ryan Blaney ($8,100) appear to be solid options. Blaney appears to have good value in a likely bounce back scenario coming off one of his personal worst tracks. For Johnson, I am not overly thrilled about the $9,200 asking price but again I seriously expect the #48 to run well this Sunday. Therefore, I will have some #48 team exposure in my lineups as well.

More risky value options include guys like Matt Kenseth ($7,700) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,400). Kenseth could be a touch better this week with some seat time under his belt and the #42 team should have a good baseline of notes from their 2019 performance with this package at Charlotte. Additionally, Kenseth is the type of driver to capitalize on the 600 miles and I could definitely see a top 10 finish on Sunday. For Stenhouse, I know he is a really bold prediction. However, Stenhouse was really good at Las Vegas under this same package and he has finished inside the top 15 in 5 of the last 6 races at Charlotte. If Stenhouse does not qualify extremely well, he could be an interesting fantasy option. Lastly, don’t overlook Ty Dillon as a flier possibility with just a $5,700 asking price. Dillon has rattled off 3 consecutive top 20 finishes and should have a good opportunity to continue that streak on Sunday.

2020 Coca Cola 600 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

If you are looking for better NASCAR odds, MyBookie has provided some of the best odds in motorsports throughout the 2020 season. Be sure to check them out to ensure you are getting the best odds!

2020 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

Final –*Smaller card today due to distasteful odds and value*

Chase Elliott +750 (1 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +1100 (.75 unit)
William Byron +2000 (.5 unit)
Matt Kenseth +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Bets and Props

Kyle Busch/Alex Bowman +350 wins Coca Cola 600
Jimmie Johnson +105 over Brad Keselowski
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1025

H2H Bets and Props

Chase Elliott -130 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Austin Dillon +1200 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)