2020 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Wednesday June 10th, 7:20PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the first time in history, Martinsville Speedway will go under the lights this Wednesday when Cup Series’ drivers battle for 500 laps of racing in the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500. The half-mile paperclip known as Martinsville Speedway is one of the oldest tracks in NASCAR with a rich history that includes a Ridgeway Grandfather Clock that has been given to every race winner dating back to 1964. Despite numerous iconic moments during the track’s 73 year history, never has a NASCAR race been held under the lights, until now. With excitement building for this Martinsville spectacle under the lights, we take the time to provide our expectations with our 2020 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500!

This Wednesday’s race at Martinsville will be the 3rd event this season under the new short-track rules package. The main difference between the short-track package compared to the regular package is reduced downforce through the rear spoiler and front splitter. While it is important to note the rules package change this week, it is also important to note the new package will not pose significant change to racing at Martinsville. To have success at Martinsville, you need a car setup that will rotate through the corners throughout green flag runs and just like last week at Atlanta; long run speed is very important. Because Martinsville is a relatively flat track with slow corners, rear tire spin on corner exit plays an important part towards not only getting off the corners with good speed but also a big part towards tire conservation for full green-flag runs.

Aside from the setup, driver input is equally important. Drivers will need to be robotic in hitting their marks lap after lap and maintain patience early in the runs to ensure tires are not used up prematurely. In some ways, there is an art to getting around Martinsville and that’s why names like Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch have routinely emerged at the front in Martinsville races. Lastly, something that we do not talk about a lot is “braking.” Braking is extremely important at Martinsville to keep the car glued to the bottom of the track. We will see bright red rotors throughout Wednesday’s race to remind us of the heavy brake usage required at Martinsville. Each year we see drivers run into brake issues with pedals going soft. Therefore both team (setup) and driver will need to take care of their brakes Wednesday night in order to have a shot at victory.

Martinsville Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Laps	Laps Led	Total Laps
Brad Keselowski	118.0	7.2	5.0	4.6	5.4	44	131	247	596	2505
Kyle Busch	117.4	8.6	4.8	4.8	5.0	7	130	237	308	2505
Martin Truex Jr	114.8	9.4	5.8	3.6	5.6	28	110	269	486	2505
Denny Hamlin	109.7	4.2	6.2	6.0	6.4	67	131	199	179	2505
Ryan Blaney	106.4	7.2	6.8	8.0	7.0	18	96	96	145	2505
Joey Logano	106.0	5.0	5.0	11.6	6.2	-21	117	139	373	2504
Clint Bowyer	104.7	6.6	10.4	13.4	9.0	26	115	151	216	2453
Kevin Harvick	97.8	11.8	9.6	6.6	9.0	38	137	78	0	2505
Chase Elliott	94.9	10.4	13.6	16.2	12.0	57	125	185	172	2449
Kurt Busch	89.3	14.4	11.6	11.4	11.0	24	141	49	0	2505
Aric Almirola	85.4	6.2	11.4	17.8	13.0	0	102	77	0	2368
Daniel Suarez	77.8	12.8	14.2	16.6	15.2	-24	125	22	0	2490
Matt Kenseth	75.0	20.5	13.5	16.0	16.0	6	28	6	0	1004
Ryan Newman	74.5	20.6	15.6	14.8	16.6	12	91	33	0	2501
Jimmie Johnson	73.9	22.2	14.6	20.2	16.4	45	87	25	24	2363
Alex Bowman	71.1	16.3	19.3	17.0	17.5	-2	68	30	0	1994
William Byron	70.8	19.0	18.8	20.8	19.8	1	26	51	0	1860
Austin Dillon	69.8	22.8	22.2	21.2	20.2	22	84	46	0	2488
Erik Jones	67.6	13.6	17.2	23.8	20.2	-33	60	14	0	2485
Chris Buescher	62.0	19.2	22.2	18.0	20.8	-14	43	1	0	2500
Ryan Preece	60.9	18.0	23.5	17.5	20.0	-8	30	1	0	1000
Ty Dillon	56.8	26.0	22.6	20.8	23.6	30	34	18	0	2495
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	55.0	19.4	24.2	21.2	24.2	-9	55	7	0	2484
Bubba Wallace	52.8	27.0	26.5	24.5	25.5	33	33	6	0	1974
Matt DiBenedetto	52.2	23.6	22.8	28.6	25.4	-25	37	10	0	2126
Michael McDowell	50.6	18.4	24.8	23.8	25.4	-36	2	2	0	2489
Corey LaJoie	40.9	34.7	28.0	28.0	28.3	-35	6	0	0	1489
J.J. Yeley	35.8	36.0	31.7	30.0	31.7	-18	0	0	0	1478
Reed Sorenson	35.8	31.5	33.5	32.5	33.0	-24	0	0	0	952
Timmy Hill	26.6	38.5	38.0	36.0	37.5	-1	0	5	0	818

In terms of Martinsville loop data, we have 7 different drivers that have averaged a 100 plus rating in the last 5 races which is unusually high. Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch have likely been the best drivers in recent years winning 4 of the last 8 races combined. Denny Hamlin is also ranked pretty deservingly high and has 5 career victories at Martinsville. Martin Truex has become a respectable short-track threat over the last 2 years. Truex’s average rating may be a bit biased. The rating is primarily derived from last fall’s First Data 500 in which Truex led 464 of the 500 laps in route to a dominant victory. In that event, Truex posted a near perfect rating at 149.7.

A few important notable mentions supplied by our loop data this week includes the likes of Ryan Blaney and Clint Bowyer. Both drivers are underrated short track talents. Bowyer found victory lane for the first time in 2018 after 24 previous starts. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney has finished 7th or better in 5 of his last 6 starts at Martinsville. Blaney actually led 145 laps in that spring 2018 race that Bowyer ended up winning. Therefore, I believe both Bowyer and Blaney are worthy considerations going into Wednesday night’s event.

A few other names that should be mentioned include Jimmie Johnson and Aric Almirola whose talent at Martinsville exceeds their average ratings listed above. Jimmie Johnson has the best average finish (9.31) among all active drivers with 9 career wins and 19 top 5 finishes in 36 career starts. Now those numbers have not been nearly as impressive in recent races, hence the loop data rating above, but he still deserves some respect on the heels of improved performance in 2020. Lastly, I wanted to mention Aric Almirola as a driver that deserves more attention this week especially as a potential dark horse. Almirola has run inside the top 5 during large portions of the last 3 Martinsville races but often has not come away with the finishes to show for it. In fact, Almirola posted ratings of 102.5 and 96.6 in 2 of the last 3 races. If the #10 team can just avoid the bad luck, Almirola should be a strong option when considering H2H match-ups.

Drivers To Target

Unlike last week where Kevin Harvick was a clear favorite, we don’t have any runaway favorites this week. Instead we got a group of about 8-10 drivers that could easily win this race on talent alone and possibly even more given the right circumstances. As a result, the likely strategic scenario for this race is to spread out our options to cover variance and value. If I had to list just 1-2 drivers as my top picks, I would probably list Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski at the top of the list. Keselowski just seems to be running well even when the #2 misses the setup and his track record at Martinsville is really strong. Keselowski has 2 wins this year which were both earned without the best car. It is only a matter of time before they earn a victory with the best ride.

Meanwhile, I would share similar sentiments for Kyle Busch. The Toyotas are obviously not where they want to be with this racing package but they are not far off either. In fact, the #18 and #11 teams have been getting really strong finishes despite the struggles. Busch has found a win to finish inside the top 5 in 6 of 10 races and I feel this is a perfect opportunity this week to overcome some of the disadvantages the Toyotas have encountered at other tracks.

Other drivers that I really like this week include Ryan Blaney and Clint Bowyer as potential dark horses. I hate Bowyer’s win percentage but if he is north of 20 to 1 odds he deserves consideration because Martinsville is one of his best tracks. Meanwhile, Blaney is the guy that I really like this week. He looked great at Bristol under this package and is deeply underrated as a short track talent. When you mention the big favorites like Truex, Busch, Hamlin, and Keselowski, those 4 drivers have posted top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 4 Martinsville races. Guess who is the only other driver to accomplish that feat? Yep, Ryan Blaney! I think this team is overdue for a victory and I believe the cards will finally come together Wednesday night!

If we look deeper into the field, we can come up with additional betting targets that should exceed expectations. Though these drivers will likely not compete for a victory, guys like Aric Almirola, Ty Dillon, and Ryan Preece are good drivers to target in H2H match-ups. I mentioned Almirola’s performance at Martinsville in recent races above. Ty Dillon and Ryan Preece are drivers that typically have trouble getting into the top 25 on a consistent basis. However, both drivers are underrated Martinsville talents. Ryan Preece’s modified background seems to really play into his strengths at Martinsville and he has posted finishes of 19th and 16th in the last two starts at the paperclip. JTG Daugherty is actually performing even better in 2020 which bodes well for Preece’s chances at another solid run. For Dillon, he has posted two top 15 finishes in his last 3 Martinsville starts. Like Preece, Dillon will likely be paired against drivers that are not worthy of that type of ceiling which yields some H2H match-up potential.

Fantasy Racing Targets

If we look deeper into the field, we can come up with additional betting targets that should exceed expectations. Though these drivers will likely not compete for a victory, guys like Aric Almirola, Ty Dillon, and Ryan Preece are good drivers to target in H2H match-ups and for fantasy purposes. I mentioned Almirola’s strong performance at Martinsville in recent races above and he is listed at just $6,400 this week due to his 2nd place starting position.

Meanwhile Ty Dillon ($6,200) and Ryan Preece ($5,700) are drivers that typically have trouble getting into the top 25 on a consistent basis. However, both drivers are underrated Martinsville talents. Ryan Preece’s modified background seems to really play into his strengths at Martinsville and he has posted finishes of 19th and 16th in the last two starts at the paperclip. JTG Daugherty is actually performing even better in 2020 which bodes well for Preece’s chances at another solid run. For Dillon, he has posted two top 15 finishes in his last 3 Martinsville starts. Like Preece, Dillon will likely be paired against drivers that are not worthy of that type of ceiling which yields some H2H match-up potential.

In terms of the higher priced favorites, it really becomes a guessing game of who can emerge at the front and rack up a lot of bonus points for fastest laps/laps led. As stated before, there are about 8-10 drivers that are fully capable of such success. I personally believe Ryan Blaney is a must-have driver at $8,400 from the pole position. Blaney is a risk because of his starting position but has a really high ceiling possibility as well. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski ($9,500) and Kyle Busch ($10,700) are on the lower side of the favorites price table this week which can be exploited for their Martinsville talent. Additionally, Denny Hamlin ($11,900) is another anchor option with some better place-differential potential from the 12th position. Lastly, guys like Christopher Bell ($8,200 starting 32nd) and Clint Bowyer ($8,400) are decent mid-range options that have the ability to pay dividends.

2020 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1320 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1025 (1 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2200 (.5 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +2200 (.5 unit) Odds courtesy of BetOnline
Aric Almirola +4400 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Brad Keselowski/Denny Hamlin +325 wins Blue-Emu 500
William Byron +120 over Alex Bowman
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1040

H2H Match-ups and Props

Aric Almirola -130 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
William Byron -115 over Erik Jones (2 units)
Kyle Busch +200 wins Group A (Keselowski, Hamlin, and Truex)(1 unit)