2020 Baptist Health 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series Betting Predictions
Saturday June 13th, 7:45PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Gander RV & Outdoor Truck Series returns to racing this Saturday night amidst a full weekend of racing at Homestead-Miami Speedway with the running of the Baptist Health 200. For the 3rd race in a row, both Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott return to competition as their budding Truck Series rivalry heats up. After capturing a win at Las Vegas in his 1st Truck Series start of the year, Rowdy has been held winles in his last 2 Truck Series starts. In his last 47 Truck Series starts, only once has Rowdy been held without a victory in 3 consecutive races. Will Rowdy reclaim his throne or will another underdog surprise at the front of the field? Find out who we like as we provide our 2020 Baptist Health 200 race picks for Homestead-Miami Speedway!

Last week was a rather tough loss in the realm of race bets as Austin Hill appeared destined to win at his home track at 30 to 1 odds. Instead a late caution bunched the field together and Grant Enfinger emerged victorious in the closing laps. Before the event, Enfinger was listed at 33 to 1 odds at most online sportsbooks to prove underdogs are worthy of betting consideration in these races with Busch and Elliott participating. Everyone expects either Busch and Elliott to win and perhaps rightfully so. However those expectations raise the odds value towards some of the Truck Series regulars who are definitely capable of winning!

To beat Elliott and Busch this week will definitely be a tough task. Homestead-Miami Speedway is a 1.5 mile rugged speedway that is the epitome of a “driver’s track.” With low grip level and multiple grooves of racing, the competition will be fierce and the best wheelmen will likely shine in this event. Obviously this plays into the hand of the Cup Series stars as the superior talents in the field. Still, I have not seen anything in the Truck Series this year to speculate Elliott or Busch running away with this race. These Truck Series teams have been very competitive this season showing strong parity amongst the garage. For that reason, I am expecting a few drivers to hang around the front and potentially have a shot at a victory if a few things fall into place.

Baptist 200 Betting Targets

Outside of the two heavy favorites in Busch and Elliott, we once again have the privilege of targeting fairly generous odds among the competition if lightning strikes gold again this week. Austin Hill immediately jumps out as one of the biggest threats to the Cup Series stars. Not only was Hill exceptional last week at another low-grip/high tire wear track but he is also the defending winner at Homestead in the Truck Series going back to the finale in 2019. Even if we disregard the victory in 2019, Hill has been fantastic on all of the 1.5 mile surfaces this year finishing 3rd, 9th, and most recently 2nd. Honestly when the Cup Series guys use up their Truck Series eligibility which will be soon, Hill will likely become a weekly favorite and I believe that he has a bright future ahead if the team can continue their current performance.

Once you step outside the top 3-4 drivers, odds really get impressive. Guys like Christian Eckes (+2400), Zane Smith (+3300), Matt Crafton (+4400), and Todd Gilliland (+6600) all have excellent value among guys that have been running strong each week. Eckes shook off a disappointing run at Charlotte by rebounding with a 3rd place finish at Atlanta. The #18 truck clearly has speed and the rookie finished 3rd in last year’s race at Homestead. Zane Smith continues to impress each week. At Atlanta, the team did not execute their strategy well but Smith still rallied back to a 5th place finish. It is probably a little early to expect Smith to find his 1st checkered flag but he should be strongly considered each week in H2H match-ups until he shows signs of regression. Meanwhile guys like Matt Crafton and Todd Gilliland have shown a lot of speed through the opening few races. I have been extremely impressed with Gilliland’s speed this season which was evident last week at Atlanta when he drove the #38 to a 4th place finish. Like Zane Smith, Gilliland’s winning probability is probably not very high but he is another driver to keep on your radar for props, fantasy, or H2H action.

If you are wondering where are guys like Brett Moffitt, Johnny Sauter, Ben Rhodes, Grant Enfinger, and others listed in this power debate, then let me explain why those guys are not necessarily on my targets list this week. Enfinger now has 2 wins on the season which is the most in the series. However, he has rarely shown race winning speed. The first victory of the season was at Daytona which is a different style of racing completely and last week Enfinger just took advantage of the restarts. He never appeared to have a truck capable of winning which was also the case at Charlotte and Las Vegas. Now I do believe the Thorsport Racing trucks (Crafton, Rhodes, Enfinger, and Sauter) have speed. In fact, they may have the most raw speed right now with the KBM trucks. The problem is those trucks are really struggling to hit the balance on their setups without practices which is why we don’t see those trucks emerge at the front until the race is nearly over. Once we start seeing better speed from start to finish from Thorsport, I think out expectations can remain modest. With that being said, Sauter is still fairly tempting at nearly 30 to 1 odds as a former Homestead winner (2011).

Drivers To Fade

It has been a few races since I discussed drivers to “fade” which is simply a result of not having any observable practices in the last few weeks. When observing practice, it is easier to tell when a team has completely missed the setup and combine that factor with other handicapping techniques to identify drivers worthy of “fade” consideration. In the last few races, we have not had that opportunity and I wanted to observe manufacturer, team, and driver performance trends in 2020 before we started listing confident fade considerations.

With a few races in the books, I believe guys like Stewart Friesen and Ross Chastain can be legitimate favorites until the tables turn. Friesen and the #52 team changed manufacturers over the offseason going from Chevrolet to Toyota. For whatever reason, the team simply has not shown any speed. Perhaps their transition to Toyota has not matured enough at this point in the season or there are other factors under the surface. Either way, Friesen has struggled tremendously and can be considered a strong fade until the team shows a sign of life. For Ross Chastain, I have him listed as a fade because he is consistently paired against the top-tier drivers yet he is providing intermediate results. Chastain had his best performance of the year at Atlanta which only resulted in a 6th place finish. Chastain failed to finish in the top 10 at both Las Vegas and Charlotte. Niece Motorsports is another team that has not shown a ton of speed through the first few races and I believe that is why Chastain is posting mediocre results. Chastain has actually performed better in the Xfinity Series in 2020. For that reason, I will fade Chastain if I can find him paired against another top-tier driver!

2020 Baptist Health 200 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Baptist Health 200 Race Picks

Final

Chase Elliott +440 (1 unit)
Austin Hill +1320 (1 unit)
Christian Eckes +2500 (.75 unit)
Johnny Sauter +2500 (.5 unit)
Matt Crafton +5500 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +6600 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -125 wins Baptist Health 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

Todd Gilliland -105 over Stewart Friesen (3 units)
Christian Eckes -115 over Ross Chastain (3 units)
Austin Hill -115 over Brett Moffitt (3 units)