2020 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 25th, 3:30PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Joey Logano sealed his bid into the championship round at Phoenix by winning the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Though it was Logano’s 3rd victory this season, it was the first victory for the former champion since March. With just two races remaining to settle the championship four, another opportunity awaits Cup Series playoffs contenders on Sunday with the running of the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Back in July, Austin Dillon delivered one of the biggest surprise wins of the season at Texas, after staying out on old tires during the final caution. Will Sunday’s race provide another opportunity for a big underdog or could another playoff contender shake up the race in the championship? Find out our thoughts as we breakdown Sunday’s race at Texas and provide our 2020 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 race picks!

Before Dillon’s pulled off the surprise win at Texas back in July, the surprise moment of the race involved Ryan Blaney and the #12 team’s decision to pit during that final caution after completely dominating the race. Blaney led 150 laps and appeared to have the field covered during the final stages. However the decision to put the #12 car on pitroad and out of the lead, proved to be costly. While I definitely believe Blaney deserves some solid consideration this week for the performance posted back in July, I also believe it is imperative to remember the importance of clean air at a place like Texas that produces high speeds and minimal tire wear. Dillon proved the importance of clean air in July and that factor could easily alter the outcome of this Sunday’s race again.

Texas Motor Speedway is the fastest 1.5 mile speedway in NASCAR. Originally, the track was mirrored to the design of both Charlotte and Atlanta. However, the track was repaved and reconfigured in 2017. The repave is part of the reason for the extremely fast speeds because Texas’s racing surface is the newest layer of asphalt among all tracks in NASCAR’s Cup Series division. Since the reconfiguration in 2017, Texas has become fairly unique. Banking was taken out of turns 1 and 2 which now has a Kansas/Las Vegas type of feel. Meanwhile, turns 3 and 4 have the traditional banking that carries more speed that most closely resembles Charlotte. Despite the unique opposite ends of the speedway, speed remains the key ingredient to success at Texas because the grip level is so high that aerodynamic speed is extremely important in today’s current racing package. As a result, we can expect some similar performance trends from recent races on 1.5 mile layouts to continue and can also look towards the track history elements for establishing baseline expectations as well.

Loop Data

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Quality Passes	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	122.7	6.8	8.0	3.4	7.2	76	298	266	423	1673
Kyle Busch	111.9	10.0	12.8	7.8	8.6	38	244	173	211	1673
Ryan Blaney	109.0	7.0	11.2	11.8	9.8	6	266	155	235	1564
Joey Logano	106.8	8.6	6.0	6.6	7.2	55	284	45	89	1672
Kurt Busch	101.4	9.0	8.4	8.0	8.0	9	313	100	41	1673
Erik Jones	101.2	13.8	7.0	5.6	9.0	45	271	64	110	1673
Aric Almirola	100.9	8.8	6.8	11.8	10.8	11	246	110	100	1517
Clint Bowyer	83.9	14.2	17.0	11.8	15.0	17	231	49	39	1670
Martin Truex Jr	82.6	13.2	17.0	18.6	16.2	24	204	36	25	1405
William Byron	82.3	16.0	14.4	17.2	13.4	18	215	26	24	1590
Denny Hamlin	81.8	5.4	18.6	22.6	18.6	-49	183	60	68	1503
Chase Elliott	81.7	12.2	18.2	14.8	15.2	-1	202	56	39	1650
Jimmie Johnson	78.9	15.2	19.4	23.0	19.6	56	182	37	111	1367
Austin Dillon	77.8	18.0	17.0	12.8	15.4	21	238	16	27	1643
Daniel Suarez	76.9	16.2	17.6	17.2	19.2	4	166	52	34	1619
Brad Keselowski	74.1	8.4	20.2	25.8	21.2	20	167	35	65	1180
Alex Bowman	71.7	15.0	17.8	19.0	17.6	-3	168	36	14	1617
Ryan Newman	69.5	19.4	15.6	16.8	16.0	-22	199	1	0	1639
Chris Buescher	68.5	18.8	16.4	19.2	17.8	-9	162	12	0	1665
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	67.2	16.4	16.8	26.0	20.2	3	179	6	10	1258
Bubba Wallace	63.1	18.2	21.4	18.8	20.2	-44	98	3	2	1666
Matt DiBenedetto	61.9	21.6	20.0	22.2	19.8	1	132	7	1	1628
Michael McDowell	60.4	26.4	23.0	19.6	22.6	-30	87	2	0	1660
Ty Dillon	58.3	21.0	18.6	21.8	21.2	-44	97	7	0	1595
Ryan Preece	55.9	26.7	19.0	28.3	23.3	22	57	2	0	880
John Hunter Nemechek	53.4	28.5	22.0	21.5	23.5	-24	15	0	0	664
J.J. Yeley	40.2	34.7	31.0	28.7	30.3	-44	2	1	0	978
Corey LaJoie	39.8	34.3	32.0	30.5	32.3	-36	20	4	0	1000
Quin Houff	35.4	31.5	32.5	33.5	32.0	-6	0	0	0	497
Garrett Smithley	35.2	37.0	31.5	34.0	33.0	-10	0	2	0	513
Josh Bilicki	32.8	33.0	36.0	30.5	34.5	-3	0	1	0	641
B.J. McLeod	32.7	36.5	34.5	32.0	35.0	14	0	1	0	643
Joey Gase	27.2	35.0	37.5	34.5	37.5	0	0	0	0	635
Timmy Hill	26.4	39.0	37.7	37.0	37.0	-6	0	1	0	578

In the last 5 races at Texas Motor Speedway (all following the repave/reconfiguration), Kevin Harvick stands on top of our loop data rankings with an impressive 122.7 average rating. Since the repave, Harvick has only finished outside the Top 5 once in those 7 races which resulted in an 8th place finish in the spring of 2019. With that being said, Harvick has been absolutely phenomenal during that stretch with 3 victories and a lucrative 3.1 average finishing position since 2017. As many know, I have been a big fan of the Fords on the high-grip 1.5 mile layouts this season and that further elevates my expectations for Harvick who leads the Cup Series with 9 victories on the season.

Behind Harvick, our loop data statistics show a group of drivers sporting solid triple digit ratings which includes the likes of Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Erik Jones, and Aric Almirola. Obviously based on 2020 performance trends on similar layouts, we would call out Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney as the drivers with the highest likelihood to emerge out of that particular group on Sunday. However, it would not be surprising to see the other drivers in that top group to post quality runs as well.

When I look throughout the remainder of the loop data ratings, the biggest surprises that stand out include the dismal results of Martin Truex Jr (82.6) and Chase Elliott (81.7). Elliott’s stats may not be too surprising considering Chevrolet’s struggles in recent years at the speed dependent tracks. Casual fans may also be surprised by Truex’s stats because he is typically great on the 1.5 mile surfaces. However, Truex has traditionally been best on the higher tire wear surfaces where long-run speed is premium. The stylistic racing produced by Texas does not exactly match-up with Truex and the #19 team’s performance style which should be considered for potential H2H opportunities.

Betting Targets

Obviously, Kevin Harvick is an undeniable betting target on Sunday due to his insane performance trend at Texas. With ridiculously bad win odds this week, Harvick’s best value comes in the form of H2H match-ups and fantasy due to his consistency of strong finishes at Texas. Outside of Harvick, this was the race I really expected Joey Logano to shine. Unfortunately, Logano decided to win one week early and diminish the value I was expecting. However, I still believe the #22 team has an opportunity to go back to back because they have been strong at the 1.5 mile layouts and Logano has been excellent at Texas over the last several years with top 5 finishes in 6 of the last 9 races.

Behind the favorites and the inevitable weekly threat of Denny Hamlin, I personally like a few dark horses in the likes of Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, and even Kyle Busch. For Busch, I know his 2020 performance has been forgettable compared to “Kyle Busch” standards. However, Rowdy has still posted 13 top 5 finishes this season including a 5th place result last week at Kansas. It’s not like the #18 team is completely off the grid and they just need to find a little speed to be right in the mix. Busch’s odds are the best they have been in many years for a 1.5 mile venue and bettors should take notice.

For Ryan Blaney, I mentioned his dominance in the July race and I also love the Team Penske cars at the 1.5 mile venues that rely heavily on aerodynamic speed. The Team Penske cars fire off very well and since Texas produces minimal tire wear; I expect those cars should be able to maintain their speed throughout green flag runs. Lastly, Alex Bowman and the #88 team have really turned things around after several dismal performances over the summer. In the last 9 races, Bowman has posted an 8.1 average finish and posted a 3rd place finish last week at Kansas with the fastest car in the closing laps. I know Bowman’s track history at Texas is not exactly impressive. Still, I believe the #88 car has an excellent opportunity on Sunday to post another quality run and perhaps get into the mix for the victory. While I am discussing both Blaney and Bowman as potential dark horses, I would also place substantial value on both driver’s H2H value this week as well. So look for the #12 and #88 in all formats.

*I did not have time to discuss Erik Jones but he is another viable target on Sunday with finishes of 4th, 4th, 4th, 10th, and 6th in his last 5 starts at Texas

Drivers to Fade

I alluded to Martin Truex’s struggles in the loop data status above and would like to clarify that the #19 car is a sharp fade target for Sunday. Texas Motor Speedway is just not strongly suited to Truex’s driving style. Truex usually excels at tracks where long-run speed is the premium because he is one of the best drivers in the business at managing his equipment. However, Texas does not require those specific attributes and despite the #19 team’s solid performances at 1.5 mile venues; I expect the #19 to struggle on Sunday following a mediocre performance last week at Kansas.

A couple of additional fade options for Sunday’s race includes the likes of Chase Elliott and Ryan Preece. I know Preece is not the caliber of driver that yields high quality match-ups. However, I still believe there could be identifiable value in fading Preece in lower-tier match-ups. The #37 team has been absolutely awful on the 1.5 mile layouts with a dismal 29.3 average finishing position throughout 2020. For those keeping count, Preece has cracked the top 20 just once in 10 races this year on 1.5 mile layouts. For Chase Elliott, the reasons to fade the #9 car simply revolve around the numbers. I have the utmost respect for Elliott’s talent but Hendrick Motorsports cars in general have been pretty bad at the 1.5 mile speedways. Elliott’s 6th place finish last week at Kansas was the first time in the last 6 starts on 1.5 mile surfaces that he has cracked the top 10. Since the #9 is consistently paired against overall favorites, the numbers suggest we should fade him with complete confidence at these types of layouts.

Fantasy Targets

After discussing Harvick’s unreal stats since the repave/reconfiguration at Texas above, there is no way I can leave Harvick off my optimal fantasy line-up this week due to the fact the #4 will be starting on the pole with an excellent opportunity to lead several laps. Behind Harvick, I am going with Ryan Blaney since he has one of the most advantageous starting positions among the top tier drivers on the heels of a dominant performance back in July. At $10,000, Blaney could provide legitimate fantasy value. Another value option includes Erik Jones at just $8,900. Jones has finished inside the top 10 in his last 6 starts at Texas and maintains decent value from the 17th starting position.

When we look deeper into the field, I am going to be honest in the fact I do not see many reasonable flier options or value drivers under the $7,000 price tag. Ryan Newman and John Hunter Nemechek are semi-risky options with decent upside from the 24th and 25th starting positions. Even though I absolutely hate his performance in 2020, Matt Kenseth could provide some of the best fantasy value on Sunday from the 32nd starting position. Kenseth is listed at just $7,100 and has finished inside the top 20 in 4 of the last 5 races on 1.5 mile layouts. Tyler Reddick ($7,900) and Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700) are slightly more expensive options that have higher probabilistic opportunity to move forward from their starting positions. However, neither driver has been the ideal candidate for consistency. If I had to choose a deep flier option, perhaps Brennan Poole at $5,200 is a legitimate option. However, I would avoid all drivers under $7,000 if possible.

Draftkings 2020 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Optimal Lineup

2020 AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +600 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1000 (1 unit)
Kyle Busch +1400 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.75 unit)
Erik Jones +2500 (.5 unit)
Matt DiBenedetto +6000 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Aric Almirola +300 wins Group 3 (Jones, Ku Busch, Byron) (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +275 wins Group 1 (Hamlin, Keselowski, Truex) (1 unit)
Erik Jones -120 over William Byron (3 units)
Denny Hamlin -130 over Martin Truex Jr (3 units)
Matt Kenseth -115 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Alex Bowman -145 over Aric Almirola (2 units)