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2020 Auto Club 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday March 1st, 3:46PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The notorious “West Coast Swing” continues on Sunday as the Cup Series visits Fontana, California for the running of the Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway. Last week, we witnessed several surprising contenders emerge at the front of the field in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Ricky Stenhouse and Jimmie Johnson recorded top 5 finishes while a host of other less popular names made their presence felt throughout the afternoon. For Sunday’s Auto Club 400, we expect the parity trend to continue at a venue that has a little bit of everything mixed with high speeds, significant tire wear, and a low grip racing surface that will require drivers’ best input behind the wheel. We discuss all of our expectations and the numerous betting options for Sunday’s main event with our 2020 Auto Club 400 race picks!

Auto Club Speedway is a fantastic racing venue. Typically when you think of a large 2.0 mile speedway, then you would assume that raw speed would be the main ingredient for success. However, the racing surface at Auto Club Speedway has never been repaved since its opening back in 1997, giving it one of the oldest pieces of asphalt on the NASCAR schedule. As a result, long run speed is an extremely important aspect towards winning in Fontana. The driver that can keep the speed in the car when the tires begin to fade will undoubtedly reap the rewards. Sometimes it’s the setup that helps keep speed in the car over the long run and sometimes it’s just sheer talent behind the wheel involving the driver that is able to wrestle the car around the corners while keeping their foot in the gas. This race usually favors the top driving talents which is why Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr have scored all the wins over the last 12 races (years) in Fontana.

The burning question going into Sunday is what driver will add their name to that prestigious list? Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex have clearly been the top drivers in Fontana over the last several races. Busch (117.4) and Truex (112.7) lead all drivers in terms of average driver rating over the last 5 races. Rowdy has obviously been the guy to beat in recent years with 4 victories over the last 8 races. Truex is the only driver, besides Busch, to lead 200 plus laps in the last 5 events in Fontana and typically shines at this venue due to his prominent long run speed. In terms of recent years, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Joey Logano have also been really strong in recent races with a triple digit average rating according to our loop data. Neither Logano nor Hamlin have struck gold in Fontana but they have been close in several instances.

Meanwhile, it would be hard to leave Jimmie Johnson’s name off the list when talking about Auto Club Speedway trends. Johnson has won 6 times in Fontana which is the most all-time with the last victory coming in 2016. As most are aware, Johnson has struggled over the last two years which has caused most bettors to steer clear of the #48 team. However, Johnson looked really strong last week at Las Vegas on the heels of a possible resurgence from the Chevrolet camp and most importantly Auto Club Speedway is Johnson’s best track in terms of career average finishing position. In 25 starts, Johnson has posted a lucrative 7.6 average finishing position with 13 top 5 finishes. Personally, I have been extremely pessimistic of Johnson’s chances to get back to victory lane over the last year or so. However if there was a venue where 7-time could dial back the hands in time, Auto Club Speedway would be in the same category as Martinsville and Dover as Johnson’s best opportunity to score a victory in his farewell tour.

Auto Club 400 Practice Notes

Cup Series team’s had two opportunities on Friday to prepare for Sunday’s Auto Club 400. Alex Bowman emerged as the leader of the pack following both practice sessions. Bowman posted the fastest lap in each session and also had showed signs of strong race speed indicative of the fastest 10 lap average posted in Happy Hour. Truth be told, I nearly took Bowman at openers this week because I feel like he is simply getting better with every start. In my opinion, Bowman had one of the best “driving moments” in 2019 when he won at Chicagoland. Kyle Larson run Bowman down from a few seconds and passed the #88 for the lead in the closing laps. Refusing to accept defeat, Bowman wheeled the #88 back to the lead to score his first Cup Series victory. The fact that he beat Kyle Larson and a track like Chicagoland which is a highly rated “drivers track” was extremely impressive. Bowman showed solid speed last week at Vegas before a late race caution provoked different strategy calls on pit road. However, I don’t think anyone should look past Bowman’s chances this afternoon as he continues to show flashes of greatness.

Aside from Bowman, there were several drivers that are worthy of consideration on Sunday. Joey Logano and Martin Truex stood out on the stopwatch especially in terms of long run speed. Truex is a fantasy lock on Sunday after failing to pass inspection on Saturday before qualifying. Truex was not allowed to post a qualifying time after failing inspection twice and will start shotgun on the field from the 38th position. Not only does that provide a probable fantasy racing target but Truex’s odds may slightly improve because of his starting position as well. Additional betting options include Clint Bowyer who won the pole for Sunday’s Auto Club 400 with a lap of 179.614mph. Bowyer had solid speed in practices which is a good sign but I rarely find confidence betting the #14 because he rarely delivers. In case you have forgotten, Bowyer has just 2 wins in the last 7 years. Other notable mentions include guys like Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Larson who all showed decent speed in practices. I’m not sure if any of those guys displayed overwhelming speed but they were definitely within striking distance if more speed can be found with adjustments.

Keep in mind that Saturday’s qualifying was an impound qualifying session meaning teams will not have the opportunity to make adjustments before Sunday’s green flag. With that being said, two of the guys that I believe deserve some consideration in the realm of betting match-ups include the likes of Kurt Busch and Matt DiBenedetto. Matty D posted a surprising runner-up finish last week at Las Vegas thanks largely to a late race strategy call. However, the #21 team continues to show decent speed and this is a venue where DiBenedetto will likely get the best of his equipment. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch may deserve legitimate dark horse consideration. The elder Busch has never won in Fontana but he has been close on several occasions. Busch finished 6th in this race last year during the peak of the Chevrolet struggles. The #1 was in the top 5 in nearly every category in both practice sessions on Friday and I am expecting a good run from the Monster Energy Chevrolet on Sunday.

Drivers to Fade

I know I have kind of presumed that the Chevrolets are on the rebound and perhaps it is still too early to tell for sure. However, I do believe Kyle Larson will be one of the Chevrolet drivers to fade on Sunday when you compare match-ups against other highly rated drivers. I just don’t like what I have seen from the #42 team in terms of performance. Instead of Larson’s driving talent prevailing at tracks where the setup/car may not provide any incentive, the #42 is often fading at the end of races. Larson appeared to be one of the best cars going into last weekend’s race at Vegas but was ultimately never a factor for the victory.

Larson did earn a top 10 finish but was never in contention for a high quality run. In practices on Friday, I noticed Larson’s lap times fell off significantly after about 15 laps and I am predicting another subpar performance once the laps starting winding down. One additional name I will toss out for fade consideration includes the #20 of Erik Jones. The #20 car has been the worst performer from the JGR camp in recent weeks and that trend appears to have continued into Fontana this weekend. Jones will not be paired against the “favorites” but could still be a sharp fade candidate against mid-tier options. Lastly, let me also just mention Aric Almirola from a statistical standpoint. Auto Club Speedway is one of Almirola’s poorest performing tracks statistically with just 1 top 10 finish in 12 starts. Almirola was decent on the speed charts in practices but Almirola’s historical performance is worthy of fade consideration as well.

For those also wondering, I had briefly thought about fading Kevin Harvick this weekend because the #4 was simply not good in practices. However, the team made some gains in qualifying with a 5th place effort and the #4 car showed some improvement. The following tweet (below) by crew chief Rodney Childers summarizes the major changes that were involved. So while Harvick does not appear to have a winner, the team has made some gains since practices.

2020 Auto Club 400 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Auto Club 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Alex Bowman +800 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +1150 (1 unit)
Kurt Busch +2000 (.5 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +2500 (.5 unit) *early pick
Austin Dillon +11000 (.25 unit) *early pick

Two Team Parlay

Joey Logano +525 wins Auto Club 400
Michael McDowell -120 over Ty Dillon
Risking 1 unit to win: +1045

H2H and Prop Bets

Alex Bowman -130 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Chris Buescher -130 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr +280 wins Group B (Elliott, Blaney, Larson)(1 unit)