2020 Alsco 500K Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Wednesday May 27th, 8:25PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Cup Series returns Wednesday night for another round of racing at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the running of the Alsco 500K which will feature 312 miles (208 laps) of racing. The good news for Wednesday night’s race is that we are on the heels of 600 miles of racing last Sunday at Charlotte which provides a rather optimistic baseline of expectations. From a handicapping standpoint, I felt like we nailed our predictions in Sunday’s Coca Cola 600 but were unlucky with the way things shaped out in the closing laps. With another betting opportunity on the table, we eagerly await an opportunity to bounce back with our 2020 Alsco 500k race picks for Charlotte!

Admittedly, our luck has not been too good this week. After Chase Elliott gave up the lead with an awful pit call in Sunday’s race, we have suffered back to back losses in the Xfinity Series and Truck Series. In both races, we had our betting targets finish 2nd which adds to the frustration. The good news is that most of the picks have been solid and we just need a little luck to fall our way. I have warned bettors that these next few weeks are going to be tough especially in the lower series without practices. Luckily, the Cup Series has provided enough racing in recent weeks that we are not entering races completely blind. As we approach another green flag on Wednesday, we should first look back to Sunday’s results.

I am not going to spend a lot of time talking about track history and loop data for Wednesday’s race. I did a good job of providing that information in Sunday’s Coca Cola 600 preview. In that preview, I called out that Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch should be considered the top 2 favorites. I also called Jimmie Johnson a very live dark horse. If you look back at that preview, I was very confident in the ability of the Hendrick Motorsports cars and had every driver in my lineup. Looking back, Martin Truex led the 2nd most laps (87), Kyle Busch led the 3rd most laps (54), and Jimmie Johnson finished 2nd before he was disqualified after post-race inspection. Alex Bowman had one of the fastest cars throughout the night, William Byron was fairly strong, and again Chase Elliott by all speculation should have won the race if not for a blown pit call in the closing laps.

As a result, I felt like the predictions for Sunday night’s race went according to plan until Brad Keselowski stole the victory in the closing laps. Admittedly, Keselowski was not on my radar and I’m not sure if he should have been considering his performance at Charlotte. Going into Wednesday’s race, I am expecting a lot of similar expectations that I had on Sunday. I expect the Hendrick Motorsports cars to be strong again. I also believe Busch and Truex remain the best two drivers at Charlotte. Truex’s stats at Charlotte are extremely impressive and that team appears to be getting better with every race. If you remember, I had backed off of Truex in recent weeks because I did not believe the #19 team had shown “winning” speed. I’m sure the #19 team has improvements to make in the speed department but the team took a big step in the right direction on Sunday towards proving they can get to victory lane.

Betting Targets

Luckily, I have a couple of pending parlays in my pocket to use on Wednesday that are pending from Monday’s Xfinity Series race. Therefore, I have some flexibility options which includes the choice of taking a couple of the favorites and still maintaining solid ROI. Obviously Busch and Truex remain promising options among the favorites though the shorter race likely favors the #18 car. Another driver that I believe will be tough to beat in the Alsco 500K is the driver of the #88 in Alex Bowman. Bowman has shown terrific speed in the last several races and led the most laps (187) in Sunday’s Coca Cola 600. Bowman’s struggle in the last few races has been keeping speed in the car from the opening lap until the finish. Wednesday’s shorter race distance likely favors the #88 car especially when you consider he will be starting from the 2nd position with a good possibility to jump out front early. Therefore, I have high expectations for Bowman’s chances tomorrow.

I stated before that I like all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars as potential betting options. Byron will actually start from the pole position and should be given some legitimate dark horse consideration. The problem with the Hendrick Motorsports drivers is that they simply lack value. William Byron has never won a Cup Series race and is currently listed at 14 to 1 odds. Jimmie Johnson has not won in 102 races and is listed at 15 to 1 odds. Both Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman are currently listed at 6 to 1 odds or worse.

Therefore if we are going to target more “value” then I would turn towards options like Ryan Blaney (17 to 1 odds) and Denny Hamlin (14 to 1 odds). Blaney has always been a top notch talent for 1.5 mile speedways and looked solid on Sunday bringing home a 3rd place finish. Meanwhile, most bettors will likely overlook Denny Hamlin entering Wednesday night’s race after a disastrous effort on Sunday that started when a piece of tungsten weight fell out of the car on the pace laps. Hamlin went several laps down at the start of the race and was never a factor. However, Hamlin has been one of the fastest cars in the Cup Series all season and despite going several laps down at the start of the event, the #11 car still posted 29 fastest laps in the race. If odds on the #11 get better before race time on Wednesday, Hamlin could be a sneaky play.

Fantasy Targets

From a fantasy standpoint, Jimmie Johnson justifiably will have a lot of exposure Wednesday night. After battling for a win in the Coca Cola 600, Johnson failed post-race inspection and will start the Alsco 500K from the 40th position producing immediate fantasy value. Aside from Johnson, Clint Bowyer (starting 39th) and Denny Hamlin (starting 29th) both provide fantasy appeal due to their poor starting spots. I personally believe the #11 will be a lot more competitive than the #14. However, both drivers provide fantasy options due to the potential place-differential points that can be earned.

At $8,700, I believe Alex Bowman has MVP potential. Bowman could easily get out in front at the start of tomorrow night’s race and lead the majority of the early laps before the main contenders make it to the front. In order for that scenario to play out, Bowman will have to get by teammate William Byron who could foil that plan. However, I think Bowman will be the guy to beat if that car is anything close to what we saw on Sunday. Aside from Bowman, Chase Elliott ($9,700) and Martin Truex ($9,400) both deserve a spot on most lineups. Both drivers are among the cheaper favorites and our likely the guys that have the highest probability of winning Wednesday.

If you are looking for more value plays, Ryan Blaney at $7,900 and Tyler Reddick at $7,600 deserve some attention. You could throw Bubba Wallace at $8,300 into this group because of his starting position (38th) alone. However, I have a habit of steering clear of laying money on Wallace in any form or fashion. I mentioned earlier that Blaney’s strength are on the 1.5 mile tracks and that #12 team has been fast at every track not named Darlington. Tyler Reddick provides a more risky challenge from the 13th starting spot. However, Reddick has proved to be the best rookie in the field. On the heels of Chevrolets performance improvement, Reddick has performed like a seasoned veteran rather than a rookie. If Reddick can hang around at the front of the field for another top 10 finish like we saw at Darlington, he would provide value at his current price.

2020 Alsco 500K Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Alsco 500K Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +750 (1.25 units)
William Byron +1200 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1450 (.75 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +1600 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Kyle Busch -135 wins Alsco 300 (win)
Martin Truex Jr +485 wins Alsco 500K
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1147

Austin Cindric +130 over Brandon Jones (win)
Chase Elliott/Alex Bowman +295 wins Alsco 500K
Risking 1 unit to win: +800

H2H Matchups and Props

Alex Bowman -140 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Austin Dillon -115 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Ryan Blaney -105 over Joey Logano (2 units)
William Byron +270 wins Group C (Johnson, Blaney, Jones)(1 unit)