2020 Alsco 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Monday May 25th, 7:47PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Racing continues Monday night when the Xfinity Series takes center stage at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the running of the Alsco 300. Last Thursday, Chase Briscoe held off Kyle Busch in an exciting and emotional victory at Darlington Raceway. It was the 2nd time this year Kyle Busch was thwarted from reaching victory lane in the series. However, Rowdy returns Monday night for a chance at redemption at Charlotte where he has posted 8 career Xfinity Series victories. Last week, we profited from fading Kyle Busch. This week we discuss if that strategy is in-play again when we present our 2020 Alsco 300 race picks for Charlotte!

Once again this week, Xfinity Series teams and drivers will go racing without any practice efforts. In fact, the starting lineup was determined by a random draw resulting in Ross Chastain earning the pole position for the green flag. We know these circumstances make things more difficult from an expectations standpoint. There are a lot of uncertainties heading into Monday night’s event but let’s focus on the things we know for sure. For starters, everybody will be chasing to beat Kyle Busch. Despite failing to win at Phoenix and Darlington in the last two events, Busch remains the top threat to take home the checkered flag on Monday and was barely beaten in last week’s Darlington race. We also know the guy that beat him, Chase Briscoe, is the top Xfinity Series regular contender with 2 victories through the first 5 races. I expected Briscoe would take a step forward this year and he has answered the call as the Xfinity Series’ next big name.

Outside of Busch and Briscoe, our certainties become less certain. Brandon Jones was dominant at Fontana and won at Phoenix. However, the #19 car did not show very good speed at either Las Vegas or Darlington which are probably the closest comparisons to Charlotte’s 1.5 mile layout. We know Austin Cindric has been fast just not race winning fast as of yet with top 5 finishes at Vegas, Fontana, and Darlington. Harrison Burton and Riley Herbst have shown glimpses of breakout potential. Burton captured a surprising victory at Fontana. Still, both drivers need some more experience before they potentially become weekly contenders. Meanwhile guys like Justin Allgaier, Ross Chastain, and Justin Haley are definitely capable of winning from a skillset standpoint but they have not shown winning speed to this point in the year. Therefore, we have to make sure we are narrowing in on the most probable and realistic targets for tomorrow’s Alsco 300.

Betting Targets

Last week, there was a ton of value on the Xfinity Series regulars with Kyle Busch absorbing all of the betting attention. Because we had extreme value on drivers like Briscoe, Allgaier, Cindric, and others, it became more opportunistic to fade Busch with the appealing odds on the rest of the competition. This week the circumstances are very similar with guys like Chase Briscoe listed at 7 to 1 odds, Justin Allgaier and Harrison Burton listed at 15 to 1 odds, Austin Cindric listed at 22 to 1, and Riley Herbst at 44 to 1 odds. Therefore, it makes sense to pivot off of Kyle Busch with some low risk/high reward style bets in the event any of these guys can steal a victory. It especially makes sense when you consider how important clean air is at Charlotte. If a driver can steal track position late, they have a legitimate shot to get a victory

With those thoughts in mind, it is also becoming less likely each week that Kyle Busch will continue to be held out of victory lane. I personally did not think the #54 car was great, in terms of raw speed, last week at Darlington yet Rowdy was still nearly a corner away from victory. After running 600 miles yesterday in the Coca Cola 600, Kyle Busch will have an edge going into Monday night’s race and some firsthand knowledge towards handling the traction compound. I expect Busch will surge forward and ultimately be the car to beat. Therefore, we need to have Busch in our lineup in some form or fashion. Therefore, I will have Busch in an open parlay and if it hits; we have two more races this week for a chance to close out that parlay.

Outside of Busch, Chase Briscoe (+700), Justin Allgaier (+1520), and Austin Cindric (+2200) are all reasonable options with decent ROI. All 3 of those cars are trending in the right direction in terms of performance on similar surfaces. Furthermore, I think we could throw in the likes of Riley Herbst and Ryan Sieg as potential long shot options. We know Herbst has a fast car but simply needs to get more experience on how to get the best of his equipment. Meanwhile, Ryan Sieg is quietly having the most underrated season in the series. Sieg’s worst finish on the season is 11th and he has finished inside the top 5 at both Vegas and Fontana. Sieg is currently listed at nearly 100 to 1 odds which creates a rational lottery dark horse and a potential H2H/fantasy target as well.

Fantasy Targets

Once again the Xfinity Series’ starting lineup will be the result of a random draw combined with a points style format for both halves of the field. Last week, I was keen on Jeremy Clements’ fantasy perspective from the 30th starting spot at Darlington. Clements delivered with a 12th place running resulting in 50 fantasy points which was the most among drivers priced under $9,000. Clements remains an opportunistic fantasy option going into Monday night’s 300 mile event. Clements will start from the 27th starting spot this week and should have a good opportunity to move forward yet again. The price tag on Clements ($8,500) has been raised but there is still solid potential.

Additional promising options include Alex Labbe who will start shotgun on the field. Labbe has averaged a 16th place finishing position with team owner Mario Gosselin this season and will get his 2nd opportunity with the #36 team following a 22nd finish at Phoenix. Value fantasy options also include the likes of Riley Herbst and Ryan Sieg who are listed at sub $8,000 price tags. The biggest gamble surrounding those drivers is that they are both starting inside the top 10 which minimizes possible place differential points. Additionally, I would include the likes of Jesse Little ($7,800) and Noah Gragson ($9,500) as additional options that will likely fly under the radar. Both drivers have great potential to move forward from their starting spots and produce quality fantasy results.

2020 Alsco 300 Draftkings Optimal Lineup

2020 Alsco 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +700 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1520 (.75 unit)
Austin Cindric +2200 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +2500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Kyle Busch -135 wins Alsco 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

Austin Cindric +130 over Brandon Jones
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Justin Allgaier -115 over Ross Chastain (2 units)