2020 Alsco 300 Betting Predictions

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday September 26th, 2020 7:47PM EST at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The Xfinity Series playoffs kick off Saturday night with the running of the Alsco 300 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Back in February, Chase Briscoe captured a victory at Vegas in the Boyd Gaming 300. The win was Briscoe’s 1st of the season and he has racked up a total of 7 victories since which leads all Xfinity Series drivers. Briscoe is considered the betting favorite for the Xfinity Series championship and he will get a great opportunity to kick off a championship run when he returns to Las Vegas in search of the season sweep. However, I don’t think it will be quite as easy this time around and perhaps our betting focus should be leaning towards different drivers. Check out my thoughts as I provide our 2020 Alsco 300 betting picks!

It has been several weeks since the Xfinity Series visited a 1.5 mile layout. The last race on a 1.5 mile surface was back at Kansas when Brandon Jones captured his 2nd win of the season. Jones is in the midst of a breakout season with 3 total victories and most recently scored the most impressive victory of his career at Darlington. I mentioned in the Truck Series preview that we can’t rely heavily on the performance results from back in February at Las Vegas because it was such a long time ago. However, the performance trends at recent 1.5 mile tracks like Kansas can be given some credibility due to both track’s similarities. Since Jones captured the win at Kansas, he obviously gets some added credibility this week.

Betting Targets

Personally, I am looking at the performance trends on 1.5 mile surfaces back in July as the foundation of my handicapping observations this week. Before the Kansas race, the Xfinity Series competed at 1.5 mile speedways in 4 consecutive races including back to back races at Kentucky. In those 3 races prior to Kansas, Austin Cindric emerged victorious in each event with two wins at Kentucky and another at Texas. Cindric also led a race-high 131 laps at Kansas despite finishing 2nd to Brandon Jones. Therefore, while many will look to back Chase Briscoe this week due to his win at Las Vegas earlier this year. Austin Cindric is the guy that deserves sharp betting action because the #22 team has been phenomenal on 1.5 mile layouts.

Behind Cindric and Briscoe, there have not been any drivers that have shown enough consistency at the front of the field to comfortably provide upset potential. Ross Chastain, Noah Gragson, and Justin Allgaier have the driving talent but have not exactly shown the best consistency on the 1.5 mile tracks. If I had to choose the best dark horse for Saturday night’s race, I would likely side with Harrison Burton. I actually like all of the JGR cars for Saturday in terms of value for the outright win. I think they could be risky H2H drivers but I think Jones, Burton, and Herbst all provide low risk/high reward potential for win bets. If you look back at those races I previously mentioned on 1.5 mile layouts, Burton posted 113.8 and 122.2 driver ratings at Texas and Kansas. Meanwhile, Riley Herbst also posted 90+ ratings in 3 of the 4 races in July on 1.5 mile surfaces. Therefore, I think the JGR speed is undeniable and we should keep that in mind for dark horse consideration.

In terms of H2H bets, Harrison Burton is my favorite driver from the JGR brigade. Burton has been running extremely well with finishes of 6th or better in 4 of the last 5 races. The rookie appears to get better with every start and has the speed to contend Saturday. More importantly, Burton has been very consistent towards getting finishes which is critical among H2H targets. Burton has actually finished half (13 of 26) races this year in the top 5 which is truly impressive for a rookie. A few other less popular names that I also like this week include Anthony Alfredo and Brandon Brown. Both drivers are listed in lower-tier match-ups and have value against the competition they are paired against. Brown has consistently run as a borderline top 10 car yet is rarely given the respect he deserves in the #68 car. Meanwhile, Alfredo really impressed me with the back to back 6th place finishes at Kentucky. I am also a fan of the #21 team that have shown speed all year. Combine a talented young driver with a fast team and good things should happen!

Drivers to Fade

For potential fade targets, Daniel Hemric and Noah Gragson are a few of the guys I am betting against this week. I am starting to think Hemric is cursed as a stock car driver which was put on full display in his last start at Daytona a few weeks ago. Even when Hemric has avoided bad luck, the finishes still have not been overly impressive especially during the 2nd half of the year. Hemric has just 1 top 5 finish in his last 9 starts and JGR cars have not exactly shown the most strength at 1.5 mile layouts which is also a reason why I don’t like Noah Gragson. If you look at the 4 races back in July, Gragson had a strong showing at Kentucky but was very mediocre at both Texas and Kansas. When you consider Gragson is usually listed among the favorites in terms of H2H competition, I see some value in fading him this week!

Fantasy Targets

From a fantasy standpoint, there are a ton of viable variances that can be constructed for tomorrow night’s Xfinity Series race. However, I can’t get away from Austin Cindric as my favorite anchor in single line-up formats based on the information I provided earlier. The real question is who do you take behind Cindric or Chase Briscoe for that matter? Between Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson, Ross Chastain, Harrison Burton, and Justin Haley, it becomes a slight guessing game. Again, I like Burton in this race and he is also one of the cheaper options among the favorites which provides leverage.

In the low $9,000 range and below, Myatt Snider offers some value simply based on his 32nd starting position. Both Snider and teammate Ryan Sieg have shown solid speed on the 1.5 mile layouts despite not always getting the best finishes. Sieg and Michael Annett both have decent value among the guys in the $8,000 range that could yield top 5 ceiling potential. In the $7,000 range, don’t overlook Brandon Brown even though he is starting in the 11th position. If Brown just finishes in the same position he starts, that would provide 33 baseline points which is decent for the price tag. For cheaper value options, I really like both Austin Hill ($6,700) and Chad Finchum ($6,200) who should take advantage of poor starting spots and move forward to provide fantasy value. If you need a true flier, Bayley Currey is worth a look at just $5,300.

Draftkings Alsco 300 Optimal Lineup

2020 Alsco 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +250 (2 units)
Harrison Burton +800 (1 unit)
Brandon Jones +1600 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Austin Cindric -130 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Harrison Burton +135 over Ross Chastain (2 units)