2020 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 3rd, 2020 4:30PM EST at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

Shortly after the Truck Series concludes on Saturday, the Xfinity Series will get their opportunity to tackle Talladega Superspeedway in the Ag-Pro 300. I’m sure by now all bettors are aware of the wildcard factor that encompasses superspeedway racing and there is no denying these races can be difficult to handicap. However, we have had the luxury of witnessing the Xfinity Series compete in 3 different superspeedway races this season. Back in February, Noah Gragson kicked off the season with a win at Daytona. Most recently, Justin Haley scored impressive back to back victories at both Talladega and Daytona. Therefore we have a solid baseline of expectations and will look to parlay that information into a winning ticket with our 2020 Ag-Pro 300 race picks!

For transparency, I am going to attempt to keep this preview relatively brief and straightforward. I stressed the importance of betting strategy and philosophy for superspeedway races in the preview for the Chevy Silverado 250. If you were unable to read that preview, the focal point pertains to betting value and minimizing risk at these types of races. Since there is a high degree of uncertainty, H2H bets and even fantasy racing sharpness is limited from a handicapping standpoint. However, we can take advantage of fairly generous betting odds in the hopes of hitting a big winner. Therefore, let’s discuss some of the drivers that should be on everyone’s radar this Saturday and discuss the best betting value for the Ag-Pro 300.

The Favorites

At the last two superspeedway races in the Xfinity Series, I have been extremely favorable to the Kaulig Racing cars of Justin Haley, Ross Chastain, and AJ Allmendinger. The trio’s success goes back to the July race in Daytona last year when they produced an extremely rare 1-2-3 finish. Allmendinger was later disqualified for failing post-race inspection so technically it counts as a 1-2 finish but the concept still applies. Back at Daytona a few weeks ago, we saw a very similar story unfold as AJ Allmendinger and Ross Chastain dominated at the front of the field in the Unhinged 300. Allmendinger actually led 58 of the 100 laps in a rare dominating superspeedway performance. However, Ross Chastain got into Allmendinger coming to the checkered flag which allowed teammate Justin Haley to score his 2nd straight superspeedway victory.

Despite how you want to slice the final lap at Daytona, the Kaulig Racing cars have been very strong at the superspeedway races in 2020. In Haley’s victory at Talladega back in June, Haley and Chastain led the majority of the closing laps in that event as well. Needless to say, the Kaulig Racing machines remain our most probable threats to pull off another victory on Saturday. The downside is the betting odds for all drivers are relatively conservative due to their recent success. Despite still being winless on the season, Ross Chastain is listed at just +450 odds. Meanwhile both Allmendinger and Haley are currently listed at less than 6 to 1 odds which really limits our potential towards betting on the Kaulig Racing drivers.

If you look behind the Kaulig Racing teammates, Noah Gragson, Austin Cindric, and Chase Briscoe have been your best secondary options which aligns closely with how betting odds are listed. I mentioned earlier Gragson won the season opener in February and he was also strong at Talladega in June. Gragson led 19 laps and posted a 100.1 average rating to cement his superspeedway talent. Both Cindric and Briscoe have averaged nearly triple digit ratings at all 3 of the superspeedway races this season. Briscoe posted top 5 finishes in both Daytona races and Cindric has posted finishes of 4th (Talladega) and 8th (Daytona) in his last two superspeedway races. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see any of these drivers in victory lane on Saturday.

Betting Targets

I mentioned in the Chevy Silverado 250 that there are not any “bad picks” at superspeedway races but rather just few winners. I mentioned the “favorites” above which have the highest probability of winning on Saturday. In terms of betting, I cannot afford to place many wagers on “favorites” for the sake of value. I will be putting heavier focus on the drivers that provide higher ROI and hoping for the upset potential that provides a bigger victory. These races are already risky enough so we should make sure that we are seeking value with our betting picks.

Among the drivers with value, both Noah Gragson and Austin Cindric have the best value among the favorites hovering around the 10 to 1 odds range. Guys like Harrison Burton and Riley Herbst have value among the drivers in the intermediate range. Burton has performed very well in all the superspeedway races this season despite not always getting the finishes to show for it. Of course we cannot discuss Talladega without listing a few potential long shots, am I right? Guys that have lottery style long shot potential includes Brett Moffitt (5th in the June race at Talladega) at +5500, Brandon Brown +5500, and my favorite long shot/fantasy flier is Alex Labbe at +12500. Labbe is probably one of the most underrated talents in the field that is limited by equipment. However, he has posted top 10 finishes at both Daytona and Talladega this season. At 125 to 1 odds, you can place minimal risk and still have substantial value.

Fantasy Targets

Based on AJ Allmendinger’s ceiling and Kaulig Racing’s strength at the superspeedways, the Dinger is a must-play in single lineup formats despite being the highest price on the board. Based on starting position, I believe teammate Ross Chastain ($10,200) is in-play and Justin Haley continues to get disrespected among the favorites at $9,600. Since the majority of my focus involves place-differential ceilings for this style of racing, I will pair Allmendinger and Chastain as my anchors this week.

Since the rest of my line-up has to focus on value, I am targeting guys like Garrett Smithley ($5,400) and Alex Labbe ($7,100) as value options that should have solid upside. There are a group of drivers in the intermediate $7,000 range that have budding potential including Brett Moffitt, Austin Hill, and Myatt Snider. Hill is actually listed at $6,600 and is another reasonable option that could provide upside if they can stay out of trouble. Of course the key to cashing in fantasy at Talladega is to avoid trouble which is much easier said than done.

Draftkings Ag-Pro 300 Optimal Lineup

2020 Ag-Pro 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +900 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +1600 (.75 unit)
Anthony Alfredo +2500 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2500 (.5 unit)
Brett Moffitt +5500 (.25 unit)
Myatt Snider +12500 (.25 unit)
Alex Labbe +12500 (.25 unit)